Henderson, Hall, Westburg, and Stowers - Potential unintended consequence of the new service time rules?

[oh-wee-ohs]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So we could bring him up right now and still get 6 full years of control after this year?

Yes. And if he loses rookie eligibility this year he won't get an opportunity to shorten his control a year. But, we also won't be eligible for the comp pick.

It's weird.

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So we could bring him up right now and still get 6 full years of control after this year?

Yes, although that would be an obvious mistake - throwing away shots at compensation from a prospect as highly regarded as he is now for ~12 days would not be a smart decision.  

My hope is that they don't plan to play service manipulation games and bring him up Aug 23 or later and manage it so he stays under 130 ABs.  

[Frobby]

No kidding.  

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Your post seemed to imply that these things will happen and we will be contenders year in and year our.  If that wasn’t then intention, I agree with what you are saying.

"That's why they play the games" is true.  No way around that.  Miracles happen.  Few things are 100%.  

I do think there are criteria they will be checking as we get closer to the rookie eligibility and post-season roster cut offs.  Especially if we're still in the playoff hunt.  If we're a game or two out/up in the WC after 8/23, then I do think we'll see Gunnar, Stowers, Hall, and maybe Grayson (if he's healthy).  Maybe Westburg.  But if we fade, then I who knows...

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Yes, although that would be an obvious mistake - throwing away shots at compensation from a prospect as highly regarded as he is now for ~12 days would not be a smart decision.  

My hope is that they don't plan to play service manipulation games and bring him up Aug 23 or later and manage it so he stays under 130 ABs.  

Not if something happens in those 12 days that gets us into the playoffs.  
 

No matter what you think about Henderson, it’s still a long shot he ends up in the top 2 next year.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Sports Guy

[cnmilton]

I haven't seen it discussed (but I may have missed it), but it appears that a good bit of this year's Os success is based around the chemistry that everyone on the team seems to have. Bringing up unknown variables in young players like Henderson, Stowers, and Westburg could change that (due to changing the playing time for the people currently on this team) or personalities not gelling cohesively.  Chemistry is not something that analytics will show 

[forphase1]

18 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

I haven't seen it discussed (but I may have missed it), but it appears that a good bit of this year's Os success is based around the chemistry that everyone on the team seems to have. Bringing up unknown variables in young players like Henderson, Stowers, and Westburg could change that (due to changing the playing time for the people currently on this team) or personalities not gelling cohesively.  Chemistry is not something that analytics will show 

No but chemistry is VASTLY overstated.  Some said we ruined the chemistry by trading Mancini and Lopez, yet here we are.   If we cut Odor the team won't fall apart and need counseling because they miss him.   Winning is the best chemistry, and that comes from talented players performing, not from good vibrations.  If the young guys come up and perform chemistry will be fine.   If they come up and slump and lose us games then 'chemistry' may suffer.  

I simply don't but into all the chemistry and fairy dust stuff,  certainly not to the level some suggest.  If true at all,  it's impact is VERY small. 

[geschinger]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not if something happens in those 12 days that gets us into the playoffs.  
 

No matter what you think about Henderson, it’s still a long shot he ends up in the top 2 next year.

Top 3 in RoY for compensation.   Top 5 in MVP in any year before arb eligible.

The penalty of losing a year of control is the only aspect that is top 2 in RoY.

Definitely not a sure thing he'd finish in top 3.  It could be an odd year with a lot of great rookie debuts.

Look at the numbers the 3rd place finisher in RoY has put up the past few years and I think you'd agree it would be a disappointment if Henderson's production was worse than that in 2023.  I like his odds especially if he comes up and gets his feet wet this year.

I'd say the odds of something he does in the next 12 days being the determining factor for the O's to make the playoffs are much lower than him finishing in the top 3 in 2023. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Top 3 in RoY for compensation.   Top 5 in MVP in any year before arb eligible.

The penalty of losing a year of control is the only aspect that is top 2 in RoY.

Definitely not a sure thing he'd finish in top 3.  It could be an odd year with a lot of great rookie debuts.

Look at the numbers the 3rd place finisher in RoY has put up the past few years and I think you'd agree it would be a disappointment if Henderson's production was worse than that in 2023.  I like his odds especially if he comes up and gets his feet wet this year.

I'd say the odds of something he does in the next 12 days being the determining factor for the O's to make the playoffs are much lower than him finishing in the top 3 in 2023. 

Yea that’s probably not true.  So many things can happen for him not to be top 3. 
 

Juet getting him in the lineup and Odor out of it is an improvement in all aspects.

It’s grasping for straws hoping for that “payoff”.  The playoffs in 2022 is more important than a potential draft pick in 2024.  

Edited August 10, 2022 by Sports Guy

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, geschinger said:

Yes, although that would be an obvious mistake - throwing away shots at compensation from a prospect as highly regarded as he is now for ~12 days would not be a smart decision.  

My hope is that they don't plan to play service manipulation games and bring him up Aug 23 or later and manage it so he stays under 130 ABs.  

This is the crux of the OP - probably worth it in the players eyes, but there’s now an additional incentive created to wait later in the year to call up a prospect (preserving rookie eligibility) once the extra year threshold is surpassed. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that’s probably not true.  So many things can happen for him not to be top 3. 
 

Juet getting him in the lineup and Odor out of it is an improvement in all aspects.

It’s grasping for straws hoping for that “payoff”.  The playoffs in 2022 is more important than a potential draft pick in 2024.  

And so many things could happen that mAke calling him up 12 days early not accretive to the teams playoff chances. 
 

these aren’t independent things, by the way. If he’s such a boost to the team that it’s material to the team’s playoff chances to call him up now vs. 12 days from now, then you have to handicap him as the odds on favorite in the clubhouse to place in RotY voting next year. 

Edited August 10, 2022 by BohKnowsBmore

[geschinger]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that’s probably not true.  So many things can happen for him not to be top 3. 
 

Juet getting him in the lineup and Odor out of it is an improvement in all aspects.

It’s grasping for straws hoping for that “payoff”.  The playoffs in 2022 is more important than a potential draft pick in 2024.  

Agree to disagree.  I will be disappointed if Gunnar either gets hurt or hits a wall and fails to a decent MLB player in 2023 and I'm certainly not going into 2023 expecting either is a likely outcome for someone considered to be the best prospect in baseball and also healthy throughout his career so far. 

I also think it's wishful thinking that if Gunnar was brought up today that Odor is still not getting playing time especially considering GH is not a direct replacement positionally. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

And so many things could happen that mAke calling him up 12 days early not accretive to the teams playoff chances. 
 

these aren’t independent things, by the way. If he’s such a boost to the team that it’s material to the team’s playoff chances to call him up now vs. 12 days from now, then you have to handicap him as the odds on favorite in the clubhouse to place in RotY voting next year. 

The first part is true. 
 

The second part isn’t.  What you do in a small sampling of games isn’t indicative of what will happen for a full season.

It certainly could end up not mattering.  We could wait 2 weeks and still make the playoffs and normally, I would be for all of these types of things…but winning matters more.

BTW, he’s not the only player involved in this.  Stowers and Hall as well.  

Elias said he tried to make the current team better at the deadline.  He failed to do that. Obviously he saw value in getting better.  See the value now and get better.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, geschinger said:

Agree to disagree.  I will be disappointed if Gunnar either gets hurt or hits a wall and fails to a decent MLB player in 2023 and I'm certainly not going into 2023 expecting either is a likely outcome for someone considered to be the best prospect in baseball and also healthy throughout his career so far. 

I also think it's wishful thinking that if Gunnar was brought up today that Odor is still not getting playing time especially considering GH is not a direct replacement positionally. 

He pushes Urias, the clear better player than Odor, to play everyday at second.   

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He pushes Urias, the clear better player than Odor, to play everyday at second.   

In a perfect world, yes.  Is that something you think Hyde would actually do?  I don't.