O's Fans Held Hostage - Day 19

[ChaosLex]

Yep...I am not going with the homer, orange colored glasses, everything is fine approach.

I am going with the, nothing has been done in the last 11 months to improve the deapth and talent of the organization approach.

I am going with the approach that since the Bedard trade, AM has done nothing to make us a contender sooner rather than later.

That is the job of the GM and he hasn't done it..since the Bedard deal.

You don't care that he hasn't...Great, good for you.

It bothers me and many others.

Just out of curiosity, what do you think a GM like Beane would've done by now with this club?

[davearm]

Hopefully things will continue this way and AM will be with Duquette soon.

There. I think that more aptly characterizes your sentiment.

I very much doubt SG or anyone else here is hoping that the O's remain stuck in neutral long enough to get MacPhail fired.

As I understand him, SG wants the exact opposite, in fact. He wants progress.

With all of the NFL firings yesterday, we're once again reminded that pro sports is a results-driven industry. Agree with him or not, SG isn't satisfied with the results.

[Lucky Jim]

Just out of curiosity, what do you think a GM like Beane would've done by now with this club?

Chaos - have you read Moneyball? What do you take from it?

[Lucky Jim]

I very much doubt SG or anyone else here is hoping that the O's remain stuck in neutral long enough to get MacPhail fired.

As I understand him, SG wants the exact opposite, in fact. He wants progress.

With all of the NFL firings yesterday, we're once again reminded that pro sports is a results-driven industry. Agree with him or not, SG isn't satisfied with the results.

It was - admittedly - hyperbole to make a point. SG generally discounts all progress we have made (and we've made a lot) and then holds AM accountable for hypothetical things undone or yet-to-be-done. It's a view of the team that focused on finding fault with the FO. My guess is that this keeps him entertained while he - again, admittedly - waits for a better team to take the field.

I know he wants to win. Of course.

[ChaosLex]

Chaos - have you read Moneyball? What do you take from it?

Actually, I haven't. I'm guessing a lot of you will laugh at me, considering the mancrush I seem to have on Beane, but stats aren't really my forte. I look at the acronyms and numbers that you, Drungo, SG, vatech, etc., throw out and I'm just like, "Uh... I guess that sounds good."

[nadecir]

Just out of curiosity, what do you think a GM like Beane would've done by now with this club?

I think Beane would have done exactly what he has done with Oakland (with the exception of the Holliday trade). Trade veterans for very good, young minor league prospects, including some prospects at the lower levels of the minors. Beane did not require getting major league ready prospects in return for many of his trades. Beane would build the Orioles farm system up with trades to be one of the best in baseball.

[Mackus]

If this is the case, why didn't he allow the Nats to up their offer - as they showed they were willing to do?

I must have missed the article saying that is what they did.

Perhaps the Nats weren't on his short list of team's he ever would agree to play for. I felt all along that he'd have a short list, I thought it was Boston, New York, Baltimore, Washington, and Anaheim, that he would be comfortable playing and then told Boras to go get the best offer from any of them, and then Tex would sign with the biggest (with slight variances in preference as I mentioned before, but any team with a substantially better offer would get him).

If he truly wouldn't let Washington up their offer, then I don't think they were among the teams he would consider going to, and were just used as a pawn to drive up prices. I don't believe the Orioles were in the same boat, that he never would come here under any circumstance, but perhaps they were, we'll never know for sure.

[Sports Guy]

Just out of curiosity, what do you think a GM like Beane would've done by now with this club?

Same thing he did with his team last year...Gotten rid of all the expensive, older talent and increased the inventory by a whole lot.

In other words, get as much depth and talent in the organization as possible...Which is exactly what AM should be doing..But tis ok, we should expect it to take 3-5 years when other GMs have done it quicker.

[Lucky Jim]

Actually, I haven't. I'm guessing a lot of you will laugh at me, considering the mancrush I seem to have on Beane, but stats aren't really my forte. I look at the acronyms and numbers that you, Drungo, SG, vatech, etc., throw out and I'm just like, "Uh... I guess that sounds good."

You should read it. It's not stats-intensive. It's about exactly what we're talking about here - business plans, organizations, strategies, risks, market values. And about the way GMs interact with one another.

Seriously, it's a good read.

And I'm not going to laugh. I only just read it recently. Like Freakonomics, I felt I was so waist-deep in the stuff that it wasn't necessary. To an extent I was right. But Moneyball offered me a bit more than that.

[Sports Guy]

It was - admittedly - hyperbole to make a point. SG generally discounts all progress we have made (and we've made a lot) and then holds AM accountable for hypothetical things undone or yet-to-be-done. It's a view of the team that focused on finding fault with the FO. My guess is that this keeps him entertained while he - again, admittedly - waits for a better team to take the field.

I know he wants to win. Of course.

Just answer me this...

What has AM done in the last 11 months to improve the depth and talent of the organization?

What has he done, since the Bedard deal, that puts us in better shape to contend in 2010 or even 2011?

[Lucky Jim]

I must have missed the article saying that is what they did.

Perhaps the Nats weren't on his short list of team's he ever would agree to play for. I felt all along that he'd have a short list, I thought it was Boston, New York, Baltimore, Washington, and Anaheim, that he would be comfortable playing and then told Boras to go get the best offer from any of them, and then Tex would sign with the biggest (with slight variances in preference as I mentioned before, but any team with a substantially better offer would get him).

If he truly wouldn't let Washington up their offer, then I don't think they were among the teams he would consider going to, and were just used as a pawn to drive up prices. I don't believe the Orioles were in the same boat, that he never would come here under any circumstance, but perhaps they were, we'll never know for sure.

Just rumor. Schmuck stated it, I believe. Your interpretation is possible. Both sides are reasonable.

[bigbird]

What is international soucting, bigbird? Is this another thing our FO still has to learn to do or another example of the lower educational standards of everyone but yourself.

That's great. You defend the front office doing nothing by bsting on my typing with one hand due to the other being broken in an accident. No where did I personally attack any individual poster here but you do. Beautiful...

[bigbird]

I didn't realize we had to immediately sign an international guy to claim the effort as a success.

FYI, Bedard was traded in February...10 months ago. Also we released Gibbons.

Seriously, the last comment is unneccesary. I'd expect more from you, but then again I shouldn't be surprised after having to read your negative comments over the past year . If you hate MacPhail so much, why don't you just tell us why exactly.

SG has noted many times..... How has he upgraded the talent level of the Orioles???? Just tell me and I'll drink the juice.

[Mackus]

my typing with one hand due to the other being broken in an accident. ..

Yeah sure, that's the reason

[bigbird]

Or we could rate the FOs by their mistakes. I haven't seen AM make one mistake so mind-bogglingly myopic as the vast amounts of cash the FO spent on middle relievers in 2006-7.

Even if you argue that they were keen and identified a market undervaluation in middle relievers that they were trying to exploit, they clearly neglected to account for the incredible variability in reliever performance year-in-and-year out, and thus virtually guaranteed inefficiency in their signings. Exhibit A for the prosecution is Jamie Walker.

This move wasn't only counter-intuitive, it was foolish. And it's at least one example evidencing a clear inability to calculate risk and reward by the pre-MacPhail front office.

That Duquette simply doesn't get the risk component of being a GM is only reinforced by his vapid-at-best, negligent-at-worst trade of Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Say what you want about being forced to move Kazmir, even given that, he showed no ability to recognize that Kazmir's high-upside/high-risk profile should be swapped for something better than a high-risk/medium-upside player like Zambrano. You don't trade Scott Kazmir for a guy with a BB rate of nearly 7.

So, you know, critique AM all you like. But no one will ever make an argument that he doesn't understand the fact that risk management is at the center of a GM's job. Duquette might have talked about "getting younger" but he didn't know - or do - the first thing about it.

Now, that's not the standard to judge AM against. His own record is the standard. And I do - really, I do - understand how antsy folks are for change. I won't be happy with Hinske, either, if it happens, for instance. That said, before we're put through another installment of BB's already-old melodramatic hostage threads, I thought maybe a quick look at how, exactly. his boy viewed this important component of building (or more aptly re-building) a franchise.

There is not a front office in baseball that does not make mistakes with player signings, trades, etc. AM hasn't made a mistake because he's only done 3 or 4 things in the past 18 months.