O's Fans Held Hostage - Day 19

[Satyr3206]

I haven't been posting much lately because of the uproar over the Teixeira signing but this thread got my attention.

I look at where the Orioles were when MacPhail came aboard like a house that needed to be rehabbed. Except the Orioles house had to be torn down. MacPhail has done wonders for the Minor league system, finally established an International presence, and put the Franchise back on the path to respectability. Those things are the foundation and will pay dividends in the future.

He has also gotten rid of some pieces that weren't going to fit, like Tejeda, Hernandez, Gibbons, etc.

I advocated signing Texeira mainly because I thought the fanbase could use a boost and it would fill 1b for years to come. But not signing him isn't the end of the world. Huff had almost the exact same numbers last year at a fraction of the cost. And offering anyone 20 mil a year isn't a lowball offer. If the Orioles would have gotten into a bidding war with the Yankees, who do you think would win? Another factor is payroll flexibility. Signing Tex would have severly limited that.

I'm not a big fan of the pitchers the O's are looking at this year but I can see the logic. It's basically holding the fort until the reinforcements show up.

As for theories regarding why and when MacPhail was brought in don't hold a lot of weight with me. Flanagan and Duquette weren't exactly doing a stellar job.

My bottom line is that I've said all along that this rebuilding would take 3 to 5 years. I don't think a fair evaluation can be done until year 3. I've been a O's fan since the late 60's and I'm frustrated with all of the losing, but in terms of Organizational direction and execution I'm satisfied right now. That could change between now and the end of MacPhail's first three years but he should be given the opportunity to do his job in a reasonable time frame.

[Moose Milligan]

It takes two to tango, guys.

Maybe MacPhail hasn't liked what he's been offered for Roberts or Huff or other players. Can you fault him for that?

SG, you'll agree that there's making moves for the sake of making moves and then there's making smart decisions. If you're making moves to make moves you run the risk of accepting mediocre guys like Hendrickson and we know how you feel about that.

[Lucky Jim]

There is not a front office in baseball that does not make mistakes with player signings, trades, etc. AM hasn't made a mistake because he's only done 3 or 4 things in the past 18 months.

You can make a mistake in a trade because you're unlucky. You can make a mistake because you lack information. The Orioles have - unfortunately - suffered both kinds. They're somewhat excusable - the former more than the latter.

You can also make a mistake because you fundamentally misapprehend the market, the value of what you're selling, the value of what you're buying, and your risk exposure.

That last one is unpardonable. And Duquette has blundered into it on more than one occassion.

But - yes - if AM operated like Duquette, you can guarantee more mistakes would be made.

By the way, blind fidelity and wan rationalizations aren't much of a defense. FYI.

[Sports Guy]

It takes two to tango, guys.

Maybe MacPhail hasn't liked what he's been offered for Roberts or Huff or other players. Can you fault him for that?

SG, you'll agree that there's making moves for the sake of making moves and then there's making smart decisions. If you're making moves to make moves you run the risk of accepting mediocre guys like Hendrickson and we know how you feel about that.

You have never seen me advocate making moves for the hell of it unless it was dumping a poor contract.

I have said several times recently that it isn't realistic to think we can trade Huff right now.

The players we have that can bring back "inventory" are Scott, Sherrill, BRob and Guthrie...Those are the 4 that AM should be AGGRESSIVELY shopping right now.

[Sports Guy]

Just answer me this...

What has AM done in the last 11 months to improve the depth and talent of the organization?

What has he done, since the Bedard deal, that puts us in better shape to contend in 2010 or even 2011?

LJ...Not going to answer this?

[Mackus]

You have never seen me advocate making moves for the hell of it unless it was dumping a poor contract.

I have said several times recently that it isn't realistic to think we can trade Huff right now.

The players we have that can bring back "inventory" are Scott, Sherrill, BRob and Guthrie...Those are the 4 that AM should be AGGRESSIVELY shopping right now.

I agree with this for the most part. I don't think I'd be "AGGRESSIVELY" shopping Guthrie though. I would look into it though. I also think Sherrill's value is at a local minimum right now, I think waiting and hoping he has another good first half or season would be a good risk to take rather than trading him right now.

[bigbird]

You can make a mistake in a trade because you're unlucky. You can make a mistake because you lack information. The Orioles have - unfortunately - suffered both kinds. They're somewhat excusable - the former more than the latter.

You can also make a mistake because you fundamentally misapprehend the market, the value of what you're selling, the value of what you're buying, and your risk exposure.

That last one is unpardonable. And Duquette has blundered into it on more than one occassion.

But - yes - if AM operated like Duquette, you can guarantee more mistakes would be made.

By the way, blind fidelity and wan rationalizations aren't much of a defense. FYI.

Again, when AM came on board both Walker and Bradford were doing well. How can you say at that point in time when F&D were replaced that those 2 signings were a mistake????

[Moose Milligan]

You have never seen me advocate making moves for the hell of it unless it was dumping a poor contract.

I have said several times recently that it isn't realistic to think we can trade Huff right now.

The players we have that can bring back "inventory" are Scott, Sherrill, BRob and Guthrie...Those are the 4 that AM should be AGGRESSIVELY shopping right now.

I agree with Roberts being shopped. In fact, he needs to go.

But perhaps MacPhail is leaning towards guys like Scott, Sherrill and Guthrie as guys to help build with. No, they're not Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Matsuz, Arrieta, Tillman, etc...but they're good and they contribute to the team in a positive way.

If thats how he's thinking, I can't totally fault him for that.

[Satyr3206]

Again, when AM came on board both Walker and Bradford were doing well. How can you say at that point in time when F&D were replaced that those 2 signings were a mistake????

I think it's a mistake to pay big money for relievers in general. There are cheaper ways to have a productive bullpen. See Johnson, Sherrill, etc.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with this for the most part. I don't think I'd be "AGGRESSIVELY" shopping Guthrie though. I would look into it though. I also think Sherrill's value is at a local minimum right now, I think waiting and hoping he has another good first half or season would be a good risk to take rather than trading him right now.

Guthrie is the guy that is likely to bring you the most back. They should aggressively be trying to shop him.

[LookinUp]

Again, when AM came on board both Walker and Bradford were doing well. How can you say at that point in time when F&D were replaced that those 2 signings were a mistake????

Were they signed for 2 months? :rolleyestf:

[Mackus]

Again, when AM came on board both Walker and Bradford were doing well. How can you say at that point in time when F&D were replaced that those 2 signings were a mistake????

Baez was an awful sign the day it was made, and really he drags down the whole trio. Bradford never was a bad signing, although I think MacPhail was wise to trade him when he did. Rather trade too early than too late, especially with older relievers. And I think Walker is a great example of that theory. Walker wasn't an awful signing when it was made, but it didn't work out, and has to be chalked up as a pretty big failure at this point.

[Cokeman]

Again, when AM came on board both Walker and Bradford were doing well. How can you say at that point in time when F&D were replaced that those 2 signings were a mistake????

There were a lot of people on here calling those signings a mistake the moment they happened...

[tywright]

Baez was an awful sign the day it was made, and really he drags down the whole trio. Bradford never was a bad signing, although I think MacPhail was wise to trade him when he did. Rather trade too early than too late, especially with older relievers. And I think Walker is a great example of that theory. Walker wasn't an awful signing when it was made, but it didn't work out, and has to be chalked up as a pretty big failure at this point.

And don't forget the 2nd and 3rd round picks we lost.

[Mackus]

Guthrie is the guy that is likely to bring you the most back. They should aggressively be trying to shop him.

Yeah but he's also the guy that most conceivably could be here contributing when it actually matters.

To me aggressively shopping would mean make it known that you are gonna trade him, and find the best offer. Basically what we did with Tejada and Bedard. I don't do that with Guthrie, but I would certainly be finding out what teams would be willing to give up, and if that helps us more in the long term than Guthrie likely will, I'd make the move. It would have to be a pretty helpful long-term value though, because we've got Guthrie for fairly cheap for another 4 years.