Can someone please explain what happened this season to the O's?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, kidrock said:

Very helpful.  Great analysis.

Seems like even in many of the games they lose this year, they are fairly close games.  You have to go back to the Jays or Rays series to find a game that they were truly out of by the 7th or 8th inning.

Last year the O’s were 13-44 in games decided by 5+ runs.   This year they’re 14-15.   

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, kidrock said:

Definitely seems like there are a bunch of non-stars contributing heavily. The ones you named are great examples: Mateo, Urias, Santander, Voth, Bautista, Kremer.  The O's just seem like a collection of average to above average players with Adley being a clear MVP level (top 20) player.

It really makes you ask the question: how to do you add to this team to make it better, especially considering the fact that there are a few really solid prospects that are .5-2 years away AND the fact that pitching is so unreliable.

A reliable top of the rotation starter would be my focus in the offseason. Maybe a veteran bullpen arm. I think that's it. If anything we might trade off some of the position players to make room for Stowers/Gunnar/Westburg to play full time along with Vavra, plus eventually Cowser and some combination of Ortiz/Norby/Mayo.

[DrungoHazewood]

The 2022 Orioles are not going to break the all time record for biggest runs allowed improvement of all time.  I'm not sure what that record is, but the first team I pulled up was the 1930-31 Phillies, because the '30 Phillies allowed 1199 runs.  The 1931 Phils allowed just 828, an improvement of 371 runs.

For the Orioles to break that mark they'd have to allow just 584 runs this year. Which means 60 more runs the whole year in 35 games, or 1.71 per game. I'm fairly confident that the O's staff is not going to pitch to about a 1.50 ERA the rest of the way.

The 1930 Phillies were so terrible that the next year they improved by 371 runs allowed and still finished 66-88-1.  The 1930 Phils gave 100 starts (out of 154) to pitchers who'd end up with an ERA of at least 6.70.

[emmett16]

Tom Verducci wrote this article that kind of sums everything up:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/08/29/orioles-magic-secret-recipe
 

They have given up less walks & less home runs.  When they give up HRs there are fewer people on base.  When they don’t give up HRs the speed in the outfield and D up the middle catch the ball.  That plus a strong bullpen, the emergence of the Mountain as an unhittable closer, and Adley being Superman .  

Edited August 30, 2022 by emmett16

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Seriously? 

No, not at all.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

For the Orioles to break that mark they'd have to allow just 584 runs this year. Which means 60 more runs the whole year in 35 games, or 1.71 per game. I'm fairly confident that the O's staff is not going to pitch to about a 1.50 ERA the rest of the way.

“Fairly confident” but not 100% sure?  So you’re saying there’s a chance?  

[Satyr3206]

It's a little of everything. Defense, Pitching, attitude. It's a team game so there are a lot of variables.

 

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

A reliable top of the rotation starter would be my focus in the offseason. Maybe a veteran bullpen arm. I think that's it. If anything we might trade off some of the position players to make room for Stowers/Gunnar/Westburg to play full time along with Vavra, plus eventually Cowser and some combination of Ortiz/Norby/Mayo.

I agree with the need to acquire an ace in the offseason. I believe the best place to get one is via a big money, short term contract for a FA. I don't believe acquiring a Pablo Lopez for 2 controllable years would sufficient meet that need as he is not really much better than what we have now.

I have been an advocate of acquiring 2 pitchers to go a top our rotation next year. But now I'm starting to think a Verlander or a Rodon will do as the number 1 and then slotting our current guys behind the one you bring in.

Not sure on the bp arm. Elias has shown an ability to get good productive pieces by scouring the waiver wire.

Maybe a bat to hit in the middle of the order like Contreras (though this is unlikely). Mountcastle and Hays may not be it in terms of producing runs. Adley walks and OBP are wonderful, but someone actually has to bring him and Mullins home when they are on base. Right now Santander is our only middle of the order threat.

Definitely got to make room for Stowers and Gunnar. And hopefully they can be those middle of the order guys. Or at least help to get rid of the low OBP guys that are really no threat. Looking at you Odor.

I don't see them bringing Cowser to start with the big club next April as he is just now being promoted to AAA and this front office has not shown that they want to handle any of their prospects (even the very best ones in baseball) by "skipping steps". But he appears to be a better prospect than either Hays or Mullins ever was. So hopefully he can be a big impact guy and maybe replace one of the two and allow us to trade one.

We really aren't that far away from being a serious world series contender next year.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The 2022 Orioles are not going to break the all time record for biggest runs allowed improvement of all time.  I'm not sure what that record is, but the first team I pulled up was the 1930-31 Phillies, because the '30 Phillies allowed 1199 runs.  The 1931 Phils allowed just 828, an improvement of 371 runs.

For the Orioles to break that mark they'd have to allow just 584 runs this year. Which means 60 more runs the whole year in 35 games, or 1.71 per game. I'm fairly confident that the O's staff is not going to pitch to about a 1.50 ERA the rest of the way.

The 1930 Phillies were so terrible that the next year they improved by 371 runs allowed and still finished 66-88-1.  The 1930 Phils gave 100 starts (out of 154) to pitchers who'd end up with an ERA of at least 6.70.

Worth noting that the entire National League went from 5.68 runs/game in 1930 to 4.48 in 1931.  So even an average team would have allowed 185 fewer runs in 1931 compared to 1931.  The Phillies essentially doubled that. 

[Natty]

Last year team ERA 5.84

This year team ERA 3.84. 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Worth noting that the entire National League went from 5.68 runs/game in 1930 to 4.48 in 1931.  So even an average team would have allowed 185 fewer runs in 1931 compared to 1931.  The Phillies essentially doubled that. 

I'll have to do the math, but in an eight-team league I think one team making a jump that large was probably 30% or 50% of the total change.

[LA2]

12 minutes ago, Natty said:

Last year team ERA 5.84

This year team ERA 3.84. 

 

Mic drop--and roll

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll have to do the math, but in an eight-team league I think one team making a jump that large was probably 30% or 50% of the total change.

25%.  

By the way, the Phillies’ offense also was down 260 runs in 1931 compared to 1930.   I looked to see if some structural changes were made to the Baker Bowl that year, but didn’t see anything.  
 

[jdwilde1]

5 hours ago, kidrock said:

The O's just seem like a collection of average to above average players with Adley being a clear MVP level (top 20) player.

Well, that’s pretty accurate, but I think there is more “above average” talent than most people realize.  Based on baseball reference, the only positional starters without a positive WAA are Odor and Mountcastle. And an average player is a valuable commodity, since a team with a 0.0 WAA is supposed to equal an 81-81 record.  Rather, what the O’s have is a team full of players who are above average, but nobody is a superstar (save Adley)  or having a career year.  
 

It will be pretty interesting to see what Elias does this off-season since the only positional player who really needs to be replaced is Odor.  Add in the amount of talent in the pipeline, he’ll have lots of options.
 

 

[kidrock]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

A reliable top of the rotation starter would be my focus in the offseason. Maybe a veteran bullpen arm. I think that's it. If anything we might trade off some of the position players to make room for Stowers/Gunnar/Westburg to play full time along with Vavra, plus eventually Cowser and some combination of Ortiz/Norby/Mayo.

Fair point.  Would be really helpful to find that.