Mountcastle

[BohKnowsBmore]

Hard to believe that a guy who can't catch up to a fastball AND makes terrible swing decisions would have anything close to the (limited) success RM has had with the bat to this point at the ML level. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Hard to believe that a guy who can't catch up to a fastball AND makes terrible swing decisions would have anything close to the (limited) success RM has had with the bat to this point at the ML level. 

He doesn’t normally have trouble with fastballs.   Palmer pointed out yesterday that he’s having trouble timing them up lately.   I’m sure he’ll snap out of that eventually.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just now, Frobby said:

He doesn’t normally have trouble with fastballs.   Palmer pointed out yesterday that he’s having trouble timing them up lately.   I’m sure he’ll snap out of that eventually.  

Fully agreed on the bolded. I was more making a point to some of the various comments re: his various shortcomings that these can't all be permanent fixtures of his game or there's zero shot he would be the above replacement player he is today

[OriolesMagic83]

10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I like Mountcastle, but I pretty much agree with your assessment. I was hoping Mountcastle would avoid any prolonged slumps this second half to juice his trade value.

Mountcastle doesn't fit the profile of the type of hitter (low OBP and swings at everything) that Elias wants playing on the Orioles. Mountcastle is a decent player and has value, but I have to think Elias will move him for the right trade package.

Right now if I had to make a prediction, I say Mountcastle remains with this Orioles until free agency, but he eventually drops to 7th in the batting order. 

 

The O's should be getting much better production out of 1B.  It's just about the easiest position to fill.  I would bet that Elias has a couple of the excess outfielders in mind for 1B.  Not good when one of your position players that should produce the most offense produces among the least.

[7Mo]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's should be getting much better production out of 1B.  It's just about the easiest position to fill.  I would bet that Elias has a couple of the excess outfielders in mind for 1B.  Not good when one of your position players that should produce the most offense produces among the least.

I agree. Or an aging outfielder. I think I really like the idea of signing Michael Brantley to play first.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I agree. Or an aging outfielder. I think I really like the idea of signing Michael Brantley to play first.

Don't you think it's unusual to take a 36-year-old outfielder who hasn't played an inning at first since he was in AA 14 years ago and sign him to be the regular 1B on a contender?  I suppose that could be creative, but also risky.  I think I'd rather keep Mountcastle.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Don't you think it's unusual to take a 36-year-old outfielder who hasn't played an inning at first since he was in AA 14 years ago and sign him to be the regular 1B on a contender?  I suppose that could be creative, but also risky.  I think I'd rather keep Mountcastle.

It would definitely be unusual and Brantley may not have an interest in doing it anyway. I'm a fan of how he grinds at bats and I think that fits what Elias will be targeting. 

[LA2]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

It would definitely be unusual and Brantley may not have an interest in doing it anyway. I'm a fan of how he grinds at bats and I think that fits what Elias will be targeting. 

Sounds like DH more than 1st Base and we probably don't need that.

[Etch]

That B.A. is sinking fast. Where will it end? Had hopes he was gonna be The Man after last year but, alas, confused.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

11 minutes ago, Etch said:

That B.A. is sinking fast. Where will it end? Had hopes he was gonna be The Man after last year but, alas, confused.

That's the problem when your strike zone as a hitter is you swing at any pitch you see come across the plate. Adam Jones was similar with his hack at everything approach, but he was able to get away with it. 

We're not seeing that so much with Mountcastle, but hopefully as cold as he's been it will soon be followed up with a hot streak. 

[PeteCanes]

22 hours ago, 7Mo said:

I agree. Or an aging outfielder. I think I really like the idea of signing Michael Brantley to play first.

Offer Judge 200 mil for 4 years instead

[waroriole]

9 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

That's the problem when your strike zone as a hitter is you swing at any pitch you see come across the plate. Adam Jones was similar with his hack at everything approach, but he was able to get away with it. 

We're not seeing that so much with Mountcastle, but hopefully as cold as he's been it will soon be followed up with a hot streak. 

Jones had better contact skills and wasn’t saddled with a canyon LF. It couldn’t be more obvious that Mountcastle isn’t a fit with this team going forward. 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Jones had better contact skills and wasn’t saddled with a canyon LF. It couldn’t be more obvious that Mountcastle isn’t a fit with this team going forward. 

I would urge patience. Maybe you don't go into '23 with him as the only choice at first, especially if he has a poor September.  But I'll be surprised if he doesn't have much better seasons.

Jones vs Mountcastle through age  25:

rOBA: .338 vs .332
Rbat+:  101 vs 109
HR%: 3.1% vs 4.7%
SO%: 19.7% vs 26%  (League K rate then vs. now is about 6.5 per nine vs 8.5)
BB%: 3.1% vs 6.8%
LD%: 17.4% vs 25.4%

Jones made better contact, but almost all of that is due to league rates being lower when he came up. Mountcastle walks more, hits more line drives, and has been as good an overall hitter. I understand he's frustrating to watch right now, but I'll bet they'll regret selling low on him.  If the Orioles were looking for a first baseman and he was on another team the board would say "look, here's a guy whose team is frustrated with but with a xwOBA 40 points higher than his wOBA, let's get him for a steal."

[emmett16]

So when does the OH reverse jinx start to kick on?

[bobmc]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

So when does the OH reverse jinx start to kick on?

I believe ( to coin a term  ) that we need @Roy Firestone to be included in those incantations for the jinx to work.