Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Stowers should be getting everyday OF at bats though.

Depends what you mean by “everyday.”   I’d like him to get 400+.   How much + depends how he does.   

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Explain what?  Adley is a C who will catch 115-125 games if he stays healthy.  He needs actual days off as well.  So, you are talking 20-30 games at DH. That’s easily done even if you have a DH guy.  Injuries will happen, guys need days off, etc…

Speaking of which, Abreu has been an extremely durable player in his career.  Availability is the most underrated ability.

"The whole Adley DH thing is completely overplayed on this board." That was your quote. It's an opinion that having Adley DH is over played. 

So how is wanting one of the best hitters on the team to have as many at bats as possible "completely overplayed?" If you are resting him then DH seems like the best way to get his bat in the lineup while still giving him "rest." That is a concern, and it a legitimate one. I agree it should not keep Elias from acquiring a 1B/DH type like Abreu, but to imply that the board "completely" overplays the issue is rather hyperbolic of you. 

[LookinUp]

The Locked On Orioles podcast made the case that Mountcastle's hard hit rate last year suggested he should have had much better stats.

I think he could be used in a pretty big trade for a pitcher, and penciled in with 30+ HRs in most ball parks. That's valuable. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

"The whole Adley DH thing is completely overplayed on this board." That was your quote. It's an opinion that having Adley DH is over played. 

So how is wanting one of the best hitters on the team to have as many at bats as possible "completely overplayed?" If you are resting him then DH seems like the best way to get his bat in the lineup while still giving him "rest." That is a concern, and it a legitimate one. I agree it should not keep Elias from acquiring a 1B/DH type like Abreu, but to imply that the board "completely" overplays the issue is rather hyperbolic of you. 

People act like Adley needs to DH 40-60 games.  That’s crazy.  I see it everywhere.  It’s like people are so obsessed with his bat (which btw isn’t that great yet, at least for another position) that they ignore that his true value is as a catcher. 
 

His presence on the team shouldn’t do anything to stop you from adding a more regular DH, especially one who brings a bat to the team that could be the best on the team in 2023.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The Locked On Orioles podcast made the case that Mountcastle's hard hit rate last year suggested he should have had much better stats.

I think he could be used in a pretty big trade for a pitcher, and penciled in with 30+ HRs in most ball parks. That's valuable. 

I think there’s little doubt that (1) Mountcastle experienced some bad luck last year, and (2) the Wall cost him 20-50 points of OPS.   Both those things factor in to why his “expected numbers” were higher than his actual numbers.   The bad luck may turn around, but the Wall isn’t going anywhere.   So I think you’ll continue to see Mountcastle’s “expected” numbers outpace his actuals.   It’s baked in, because the “expected” numbers aren’t ballpark-specific.  

But rather than focusing on Mountcastle’s bad luck, I’d rather focus on his tendency to fall into slumps that last a long time.  That’s what he needs to figure out.  All ballplayers slump; not all of them go into month-long droughts as frequently as Mountcastle has in his relatively short career.  And when you watch him when he’s slumping, you don’t say to yourself, “man, this is all just bad luck.”  No, you say “why the hell is he swinging at those pitches?”  Actually, you can say that even when he’s hot, but when he’s hot, he’s hitting them.  

It’s important to remember that Mountcastle has only played two years plus a month in the big leagues.   He has capacity for growth.   But whether that’ll happen isn’t clear.   I don’t think he’ll ever progress beyond “okay bat for a first baseman” unless he becomes more selective at the plate and figures a way to shorten his slumps.


 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll be surprised if Adley starts 121+ regular season games at catcher under Elias.

How many players started 120 games at catcher last season?  I think it was one.

My motto is If It Was Good for Jody Davis, It's Good for Everyone.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People act like Adley needs to DH 40-60 games.  That’s crazy.  I see it everywhere.  It’s like people are so obsessed with his bat (which btw isn’t that great yet, at least for another position) that they ignore that his true value is as a catcher. 
 

His presence on the team shouldn’t do anything to stop you from adding a more regular DH, especially one who brings a bat to the team that could be the best on the team in 2023.

Once again, a grand total of one catcher caught (GS)more than 120 games last year.

One.

Do you think that Elias and Hyde are going to run Adley out there that much?

If Adley catches 115 games next year I want to see him at DH for 40 games.

I don't want him playing first.

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think there’s little doubt that (1) Mountcastle experienced some bad luck last year, and (2) the Wall cost him 20-50 points of OPS.   Both those things factor in to why his “expected numbers” were higher than his actual numbers.   The bad luck may turn around, but the Wall isn’t going anywhere.   So I think you’ll continue to see Mountcastle’s “expected” numbers outpace his actuals.   It’s baked in, because the “expected” numbers aren’t ballpark-specific.  

But rather than focusing on Mountcastle’s bad luck, I’d rather focus on his tendency to fall into slumps that last a long time.  That’s what he needs to figure out.  All ballplayers slump; not all of them go into month-long droughts as frequently as Mountcastle has in his relatively short career.  And when you watch him when he’s slumping, you don’t say to yourself, “man, this is all just bad luck.”  No, you say “why the hell is he swinging at those pitches?”  Actually, you can say that even when he’s hot, but when he’s hot, he’s hitting them.  

It’s important to remember that Mountcastle has only played two years plus a month in the big leagues.   He has capacity for growth.   But whether that’ll happen isn’t clear.   I don’t think he’ll ever progress beyond “okay bat for a first baseman” unless he becomes more selective at the plate and figures a way to shorten his slumps.


 

This is all a good explanation of why he's more valuable to other teams than the O's, which makes him a trade candidate.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Once again, a grand total of one catcher caught (GS)more than 120 games last year.

One.

Do you think that Elias and Hyde are going to run Adley out there that much?

If Adley catches 115 games next year I want to see him at DH for 40 games.

I don't want him playing first.

Once again, I don’t care.

I said he will catch, if healthy, 115-125 games(so not saying he definitely gets 120+ games although he may).  He will get more than 6 games off, as he should.

He will DH 25 or so times, give or take. 
 

He will have off the rest of the time.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This is all a good explanation of why he's more valuable to other teams than the O's, which makes him a trade candidate.

But what value does he have to those other teams?  
 

I would really like to see a deal that sends Mullins, Mateo and Mountcastle to the Marlins for for pitching.  Takes care of a lot of needs and issues for both teams.

[Just Regular]

Jose Abreu is awesome.    His 32 WAR from ages 27-35, I'd probably give him hypothetical credit for another ~30 WAR for ages 21-26 except for geopolitics - he's almost Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols.

The Orioles have been in talent accumulation mode for years, have a Bats heavy mix, and are fast approaching the cannibalizing value zone.     Abreu for me is a referendum on Is Kyle Stowers worthy of a first-string tryout?

Before transactions to be named later, Stowers or Urias is probably the 9th Bat in the Opening Day lineup.   I'm giving 2B to Westburg for starters - I think for Elias the answer to the question Is Jordan Westburg worthy of a first-string tryout is a clearer Yes.

I hope Elias has a nice bit of the tool of money at his disposal this offseason - I suspect the biggest trade in the next 12 months happens in July, and that he wants a view of which pitcher's Arms blow up in the first half of next season.    For $$$, Bats are luxuries, Arms are necessities, unless you elevate to the Correa zone where the roster value of consolidating 5+ Wins to one roster spot starts to outweigh Arms-Bats mixes.

Evergreen Flow Chart - Can you get a 5+ Win player....answer is Yes.

[tabletop]

Career vs LHP - .305/.377/.548

2022 vs LHP - .294/.387/.471

O's as a team in 2022 vs LHP - .224/.297/.366

So, yes, he would be a great signing. He's fine at 1B. There's more than enough room for him.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I need to go look at his stats again but IIRC, 2022 is more an off year then declining/aging talent.  That’s the question for Abreu.
 

His best fit is if we can find a trade partner for Mountcastle.  We might lose some power but we would gain OBP and likely runs as a team.  And with LF as it is, OBP matters more than it has in the past.

Yes I have to trade Mountcastle if I am signing him. 
 

Trade for Ohtani or Trout.. bigger fish but if any team has the prospects now it is us. 

[tntoriole]

15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Jose Abreu is awesome.    His 32 WAR from ages 27-35, I'd probably give him hypothetical credit for another ~30 WAR for ages 21-26 except for geopolitics - he's almost Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols.

The Orioles have been in talent accumulation mode for years, have a Bats heavy mix, and are fast approaching the cannibalizing value zone.     Abreu for me is a referendum on Is Kyle Stowers worthy of a first-string tryout?

Before transactions to be named later, Stowers or Urias is probably the 9th Bat in the Opening Day lineup.   I'm giving 2B to Westburg for starters - I think for Elias the answer to the question Is Jordan Westburg worthy of a first-string tryout is a clearer Yes.

I hope Elias has a nice bit of the tool of money at his disposal this offseason - I suspect the biggest trade in the next 12 months happens in July, and that he wants a view of which pitcher's Arms blow up in the first half of next season.    For $$$, Bats are luxuries, Arms are necessities, unless you elevate to the Correa zone where the roster value of consolidating 5+ Wins to one roster spot starts to outweigh Arms-Bats mixes.

Evergreen Flow Chart - Can you get a 5+ Win player....answer is Yes.

How about a bat and an arm at the same time?  And a LH bat at that? Go rent the Oh man!! 

[btdart20]

I just had a look at Savant...  Abreu is still hitting the ball really hard - 92.2 average EV and a consistent clip of 51.8% HH%. His 8-degree LA is significantly below career norms (lots of worm-burners).  All of which combine to boost a high Babip.  The only batted ball stat that really stands out is the 3.2% pop-up rate (career low with an average of 5.9).

However, his R-value against the 4-seamer was -9.  You have to go back to 2017 to see a negative R-value against the 4-seamer.  That could be an indicator of either 1) pitchers are attacking him differently (we'd have to dig into that), 2) he's aging and can't catch up with the velocity, and/or 3) he's adjusted his approach as he's aging.  (There could be more options because pitching/hitting is a cat/mouse game.)

Looking at 2019-2021, Abreu led the league in GDP all three years.  Maybe that's a stat he really wanted to change, and he focused on hitting breaking balls?  And maybe that approach change caused less pop-ups and a lower run value on 4-seamers?  Who knows...  just a theory...

I think he's got a few more good years in the tank.  But especially don't think he'll fall off a cliff in 2023. 

For RHHs at OPACY, there are worse things than a guy who hits liners and takes a walk.

 

As far as plate appearance shares:  

Bringing in a 1B/DH type (without trading Mountcastle) would likely mean more starts in RF for Santander.  Mountcastle/Abreu would get 100% of 1B PAs.  They would also get about 50% of the DH PAs.  Santander would get 30-35% of DH PAs.  And Adley would get 15-20% of DH PAs.  

But the biggest gain would be on actual rest days and 'next man up' for injuries.  How many Sunday line-ups did we laugh at?  When we rested 2 of our better hitters, it left huge holes!