Orioles Interested in deGrom

[SpOkane]

A slew of articles stating deGrom is opting out. Some, however, have included the caveat unless the Mets offer him what he wants before free agency-better than Sherzer's contract in years and AAV-up to $50 M/yr.

How Mets' 2023 payroll could skyrocket to $345 million (nypost.com)

Article also mentions Bassitt could be looking for $19 AAV. He was my choice for FA SP signing. Don't think ME goes that high for a pitcher yet.

[RZNJ]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I don’t know deGrom’s personality.   Is he someone who will go for the multi-year contract now, knowing that his market may be down a little due to his injuries the last two years?   Or is he someone who will bet on himself to have a big, healthy year and get a better multi-year deal next offseason than he can get right now?    The guy will have made almost $150 mm in his career if he “opts in,” so even though he’d be taking more of a risk, it’s not like he’d be going to the poorhouse if he had a bad year or an injury and ended up doing worse than jr would have done by opting out now.  

Depends on what you consider a down market.  Degrom pitched over 200 innings per year from 2017-19.  He has overcome his injuries and, technically, is at no more risk than Rodon.  Degrom finished the year healthy and his stats are ridiculously good.  As I said, he'll get 3/90 no problem.  5/150 would not surprise me.  He's 34.  Waiting another year is risky for him and what does he gain in a best case scenario at one year older?

[Ohfan67]

Degrom will opt out. He was incredibly vocal about opting out last spring and he looked so good in August and September that he will get a huge deal. But I think he will resign with the Mets. He was very vocal about wanting to remain with the Mets last spring and the Mets ownership is all in. They have a legitimate shot at a World Series in the next few years and have already decided to go for it. The Mets paid Degrom 35.5 million this year. I don't think Degrom will have to take a per year pay cut. I think they will give him 4/160 or similar. I think they would happily sign him to 3/120. I think there's a pretty low probability that Degrom "earns" that contract in terms of WAR per dollar (he's averaged 75 innings over the last three years), but they will take the risk and gladly pay for unproductive/injured years if they get to have a World Series victory parade in 2023 or 2024.  

[Too Tall]

In my opinion, all this speculation about signing a pitcher to the contract level of Degrom or Verlander and the risk assoiated with each is a real streach for the Orioles - at this time. Don't see it happening but all this is fun to read and dream about. Personally, Degrom can do what the heck he wants, I'm not seeing him wearing a cartoon bird anytime soon.

PS - Why do I believe this? There's a lawsuit going on about how and who runs the Orioles. That's just one of the current "givens" Elias must navigate through this winter. Hate to be a bummer, but within that context, I seriously doubt a 30 to 50 mil per year pitcher is on his realistic Christmas list. The next few months should never-the-less be interesting with a lot of enjoyable reading.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Degrom will opt out. He was incredibly vocal about opting out last spring and he looked so good in August and September that he will get a huge deal. But I think he will resign with the Mets. He was very vocal about wanting to remain with the Mets last spring and the Mets ownership is all in. They have a legitimate shot at a World Series in the next few years and have already decided to go for it. The Mets paid Degrom 35.5 million this year. I don't think Degrom will have to take a per year pay cut. I think they will give him 4/160 or similar. I think they would happily sign him to 3/120. I think there's a pretty low probability that Degrom "earns" that contract in terms of WAR per dollar (he's averaged 75 innings over the last three years), but they will take the risk and gladly pay for unproductive/injured years if they get to have a World Series victory parade in 2023 or 2024.  

Buck will be long back to Arizona when that deal is flaming out lol 

[Moose Milligan]

He's hardly ever healthy.  

If they want him, fine.  Sign him, and don't let him start until July.  Maybe he can make it through the 2nd half of the season intact and be a big boost for a playoff run.  But there's no chance that he makes it through a complete season.

I'm half kidding.  But I'm really not interested in him.

[PHRESH]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's hardly ever healthy.  

If they want him, fine.  Sign him, and don't let him start until July.  Maybe he can make it through the 2nd half of the season intact and be a big boost for a playoff run.  But there's no chance that he makes it through a complete season.

I'm half kidding.  But I'm really not interested in him.

I'm with ya. I don't believe he'd be worth the investment. 

[now]

Sorry, refresher needed here. Insurance covers salary for player injuries, right? Granted, you lose the quantity of production you hoped for, but still end up with quality after the insurance discount, no?

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Buck will be long back to Arizona when that deal is flaming out lol 

Texas! Buck lives in Texas. And probably so. The Mets aren’t looking to maximize WAR per dollars. They want to win the World Series. I’m not advocating a contract like that, but that’s where it’s headed. 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, now said:

Sorry, refresher needed here. Insurance covers salary for player injuries, right? Granted, you lose the quantity of production you hoped for, but still end up with quality after the insurance discount, no?

It depends on the terms of the agreement.  From my understanding a player has to miss the entirety of a season for the team to recoup from any insurance.

There is also nothing forcing an insurer to take on a certain risk.

If an insurer (or insurers which is more likely) would agree to insure a deGrom contract the expense to the team would be considerable.

[deward]

To me, this is the perfect time to sign someone like deGrom. There is minimal committed payroll at the moment, and no one seems to think deGrom is expecting a 7-8 year deal. Why not sign him to a 3 year deal at $30-40m AAV? A fourth year would be debatable for me, but three seems like a no brainer. It's a gamble, but so is every other pitcher. If it works, you get the best pitcher in baseball on a young, exciting playoff-caliber team. Worst case, injuries ruin him, but seems like enough payroll flexibility right now to take that gamble and not be completely hamstrung if it doesn't work. I don't know why it would be any less of a gamble that giving 2 years of big money to someone Verlander's age. This strikes me as the kind of big swing they could take now, but perhaps not in a few years, when the committed payroll will presumably be higher. 

[LA2]

Last season, the Orioles did well with the very unpopular signing of a mediocre talent who nevertheless had already proven he'd pitch the whole season and relatively deep into games. He took 9 more starts, threw 54 more innings, and won 4 more games than the next best starter in the rotation (Kremer). He was probably one reason why the bullpen stayed fresh and effective throughout much of the season.

It's obvious that to truly contend next season, we need to get a higher-quality pitcher to lead the staff, but I think he should be as durable and 'pen-saving as Lyles--we've seen the many benefits of that. DeGrom doesn't fit that description, we can't count on Grayson or Means to fulfill it, and not requiring it can lead to things like the Mets' Scherzer fiasco, which was a fairly predictable one (e.g., dead arm in the 2021 postseason), or a bullpen collapse during a late-season divisional dogfight. For a little bit more than the money DeGrom would demand, we could even get two such pitchers and have more flexibility in subsequent seasons. I like some of the names on FRobby's list of last year's FA signees. Or let's find our own versionS of a Chris Bassitt, Mike Wacha, etc.

Edited October 31, 2022 by LA2

[waroriole]

While it would be cool to have healthy DeGrom pitch 200 innings for us each of the next 3 years, even at 40M per year, there’s very little reason to think we’ll get even one season of that production. I prefer a safer approach of spreading that much money around among 2 SP without the health concerns, or the elite upside, of DeGrom. 
 

Also, let’s be honest, there is an almost zero chance of it happening anyway. 

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

While it would be cool to have healthy DeGrom pitch 200 innings for us each of the next 3 years, even at 40M per year, there’s very little reason to think we’ll get even one season of that production. I prefer a safer approach of spreading that much money around among 2 SP without the health concerns, or the elite upside, of DeGrom. 
 

Also, let’s be honest, there is an almost zero chance of it happening anyway. 

Look at the playoff rosters.  You cannot have a team of 1-3 WAR players.  You have to have the one or two guys who have 5-8 WAR (CLE: Ramirez, SEA: Rodriguez, TOR: Bichette Manoah, NY: Judge, Cole, HOU: A lot, PHI: Harper, Nola, Wheeler, STL: Arenado/Goldy, SD: Soto/Machado, ATL: A lot, NYM: A lot, LAD: A lot.

There are two ways to get that, either homegrown talent which is cheap or a huge FA.  You can't imagine, other than Adley and maybe Gunnar, that you have high WAR players homegrown for next year.  And you're not going to get high WAR with middling contracts.

[Sports Guy]

Is this really a discussion about whether or not he will opt out? Like seriously?  It’s 100% that he will opt out because he will get a lot more guaranteed money than is on the table.