2022 #7 prospect Joey Ortiz - SS

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I'm a bit surprised to see that Ortiz is this "low."  The praise for him on this board- not necessarily from Tony though- has been effusive.  It seems the consensus is he's an everyday SS/2b and he's ready immediately.  If that's true and we have six better guys than that, awesome!

Well, this is Tony’s list and he has been more reserved on Ortiz so why is it surprising?    
 

Even I, the effusive one, thinks the order of Hall, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, and Ortiz, is pretty random right now.  You could put them in all types of order and make a good case for it.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Well, this is Tony’s list and he has been more reserved on Ortiz so why is it surprising?    
 

Even I, the effusive one, thinks the order of Hall, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, and Ortiz, is pretty random right now.  You could put them in all types of order and make a good case for it.  

You have been the most effusive but you have hardly been alone.  It's just my impression.  That's all.

[btdart20]

I wear the 'effusive' Scarlet Letter as well. 

I can't think of Ortiz without comparing him to Mateo.  But honestly, Ortiz could be a 2B for us depending on other org moves (trades, position adjustments, etc.). 

Fairly/unfairly: I'm calling defense a wash (though at this point it's fair to give Mateo the advantage over Ortiz).  

Mateo's range of outcomes is pretty drastic.  He's a low BB% guy (5.1% vs. 8.4% league average).  So his OBP is driven by BABIP.  And over the past two years, his HH% is in the 31.2% (2021) to 32.7% (2022) range (vs. league average of 35.8%).  Combine that with a 14.1-14.8 LA and a below average EV, he's a low Babip guy because he hits pop-ups (which means he can't leg those out).  His approach at the plate negates his overwhelming strength of speed.  

2021 w/ O's - .280/.328/.421 - that SSS with his defensive skills and speed is top 10 SS offensively.

2022 - .221/.267/.379 - that's a rally killer.  It's bottom 10 SS/replacement level.

Ortiz's range of outcomes is a much narrower band IMO because of his BB%, LD%, and contact skills.  Mateo's offensive holes amplify Ortiz 'game.  Ortiz simply makes less outs while his LD% and contact skills allow whatever power he has to translate in game (gotta hit the ball first) and will naturally support a higher Babip.  I suspect a 30+ doubles guy with league average OBP adds more run/game than a sinkhole OBP who happens to tap into 15 HR w/ 30+ SB. 

There's a lot to like about Ortiz and I'm fully on board the bandwagon.  

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Well, this is Tony’s list and he has been more reserved on Ortiz so why is it surprising?    
 

Even I, the effusive one, thinks the order of Hall, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, and Ortiz, is pretty random right now.  You could put them in all types of order and make a good case for it.  

Have I? I've been pretty bullish on him after his sustained heater into mid-August and after watching him once healthy. I'm more bullish on him than every guy I spoke with. Could he have been a little higher, sure, but that is more because of the guys above him than on him.

And besides, I've already stated that 4-9 for me are pretty interchangeable. 

If giving the most likely outcome as an everyday major league SS is reserved, well that I plead guilty, but I personally think I'm being bullish on him based off the guys I spoke within the industry.

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Have I? I've been pretty bullish on him after his sustained heater into mid-August and after watching him once healthy. I'm more bullish on him than every guy I spoke with. Could he have been a little higher, sure, but that is more because of the guys above him than on him.

And besides, I've already stated that 4-9 for me are pretty interchangeable. 

If giving the most likely outcome as an everyday major league SS is reserved, well that I plead guilty, but I personally think I'm being bullish on him based off the guys I spoke within the industry.

 

Let me put it this way.  You were a little more cautious going from bearish to bullish than I was, rightfully so.   I think we are equally bullish now.

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I wear the 'effusive' Scarlet Letter as well. 

I can't think of Ortiz without comparing him to Mateo.  But honestly, Ortiz could be a 2B for us depending on other org moves (trades, position adjustments, etc.). 

Fairly/unfairly: I'm calling defense a wash (though at this point it's fair to give Mateo the advantage over Ortiz).  

Mateo's range of outcomes is pretty drastic.  He's a low BB% guy (5.1% vs. 8.4% league average).  So his OBP is driven by BABIP.  And over the past two years, his HH% is in the 31.2% (2021) to 32.7% (2022) range (vs. league average of 35.8%).  Combine that with a 14.1-14.8 LA and a below average EV, he's a low Babip guy because he hits pop-ups (which means he can't leg those out).  His approach at the plate negates his overwhelming strength of speed.  

2021 w/ O's - .280/.328/.421 - that SSS with his defensive skills and speed is top 10 SS offensively.

2022 - .221/.267/.379 - that's a rally killer.  It's bottom 10 SS/replacement level.

Ortiz's range of outcomes is a much narrower band IMO because of his BB%, LD%, and contact skills.  Mateo's offensive holes amplify Ortiz 'game.  Ortiz simply makes less outs while his LD% and contact skills allow whatever power he has to translate in game (gotta hit the ball first) and will naturally support a higher Babip.  I suspect a 30+ doubles guy with league average OBP adds more run/game than a sinkhole OBP who happens to tap into 15 HR w/ 30+ SB. 

There's a lot to like about Ortiz and I'm fully on board the bandwagon.  

Ortiz's upside seems like Urias's bat with Mateo's glove. If Urias and Mateo are 2-3 WAR guys, that's like a solid 4 WAR player. And Ortiz still has room to grow with the bat. 

[cridolphi]

21 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm a bit surprised to see that Ortiz is this "low."  The praise for him on this board- not necessarily from Tony though- has been effusive.  It seems the consensus is he's an everyday SS/2b and he's ready immediately.  If that's true and we have six better guys than that, awesome!

Gunnar, Grayson, Hall, Westburg.  Not sure who 5 and 6 are.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, cridolphi said:

Gunnar, Grayson, Hall, Westburg.  Not sure who 5 and 6 are.

If the scouting reports are accurate, I'd take Ortiz over Westburg.

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The way its settling for me is Ramon Urias is the priority trade guy, though the 3B Market still fuzzy with Justin Turner and Evan Longoria (retiring?) options declined, and Brian Anderson and Jeimer Candelario non-tenders possibly pending.     MIA and DET both become promising looking musical chairs if those Clubs move on.

The extra year of control as you'd helped parse probably gives Elias a little more valuable guy, and the lords of baseball putting their thumb on the scale to change the game in ways that I think help Mateo are what help separate them for me.

On Ortiz, him v. Westburg should be a fun battle come Spring.   Breaking a guy in, I believe good care of both of them is picking one for April-May and seeing how it goes.    Its a long season.

Agreed.  The thin 3B market and deep SS FA market should elevate Urias market value.  And a Norby, Hays, or Mountcastle and it makes me wonder what type of SP that unlocks?  

Mateo/Urias/Gunnar/Ortiz/Westburg are all MLB contributors IMO.  There's value to be reallocated and it's best to trade from the top of the deck.  

[cridolphi]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

If the scouting reports are accurate, I'd take Ortiz over Westburg.

I don't disagree, also I left off Holliday LOL

[linedrive]

While at Birdland Member's Day I asked Ortiz what his offseason goals were, and one thing he mentioned was improving his speed. He only stole 8 bases last year (2 CS), so he's no speedster, but we could see some improvement in that area, as well as increased range at SS. Very promising future for this kid.

[LookinUp]

50 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Ortiz's upside seems like Urias's bat with Mateo's glove. If Urias and Mateo are 2-3 WAR guys, that's like a solid 4 WAR player. And Ortiz still has room to grow with the bat. 

Might want to wait for Tony's updated write-up on Westburg. He's still pretty universally rated higher than Ortiz. I'm not aware of any place rating Ortiz higher. Maybe they should. I don't know. But I don't think I've seen it yet.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Might want to wait for Tony's updated write-up on Westburg. He's still pretty universally rated higher than Ortiz. I'm not aware of any place rating Ortiz higher. Maybe they should. I don't know. But I don't think I've seen it yet.

I think the dividing line on Westburg and Ortiz is power and power potential. Ortiz is a little guy with power.  Westburg is a big boy with big power.   I’m thinking Mountcastle power with better plate discipline and defensive value.  

[Aristotelian]

29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Might want to wait for Tony's updated write-up on Westburg. He's still pretty universally rated higher than Ortiz. I'm not aware of any place rating Ortiz higher. Maybe they should. I don't know. But I don't think I've seen it yet.

I think Westburg may be as high as #4. I voted Mayo-Hall for #5/6. 

[Pickles]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think the dividing line on Westburg and Ortiz is power and power potential. Ortiz is a little guy with power.  Westburg is a big boy with big power.   I’m thinking Mountcastle power with better plate discipline and defensive value.  

For me, the difference is future defensive value.

Ortiz is universally praised as a ML caliber SS.  Now maybe that's wrong, but those are the reports.

Westburg is a guy who might stick at 2nd.  The write up released a few weeks ago where he was lowered on somebody's list specifically called him out as a guy who had been shift-aided into playing the left side of the infield.  So SS/3b seem to be unrealistic destinations for him.  So hopefully, he can stick at 2nd, but even if he does that its significantly less valuable than a plus SS.