The Third Base Market - Ramon Urias Trade Speculation

[Roll Tide]

55 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If we truly think he’s our best, then sure he starts.  If he’s not our best/bench, then I’m fine with an upside lottery for a capped out waiver claim rather than losing trade value.

The goal is to have the best team possible. But, if you believe Westburg is ready and Ortiz is close this is a main piece for a pretty good start. 

[Sanfran327]

18 hours ago, btdart20 said:

If they start for us (i.e. we deem them our best options), are we really going to trade them away at the deadline?  

If they don’t start for us, wouldn’t that hurt their value?

You can trade one of them out of a starting role if you think a prospect is ready to replace them just at the same or higher level of production. I don't think we have a player that fits that description as of today, and that sentiment remains until at least the beginning of spring training if not through opening day. I think that at a minimum, you need to give it a month of the minor league season to see if one of the prospects is just raking and making a case for a promotion. 

So while our infield is a position group of great strength, I don' think you can declare it as one of known, reliable depth. We have 4 starters for 4 positions at the moment, with one of them requiring a position change. I'm not sure I'd be real motivated to trade out of that scenario unless I think I'm winning a lopsided trade that brings back some MLB-ready pitching.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sanfran327 said:

You can trade one of them out of a starting role if you think a prospect is ready to replace them just at the same or higher level of production. I don't think we have a player that fits that description as of today, and that sentiment remains until at least the beginning of spring training if not through opening day. I think that at a minimum, you need to give it a month of the minor league season to see if one of the prospects is just raking and making a case for a promotion. 

So while our infield is a position group of great strength, I don' think you can declare it as one of known, reliable depth. We have 4 starters for 4 positions at the moment, with one of them requiring a position change. I'm not sure I'd be real motivated to trade out of that scenario unless I think I'm winning a lopsided trade that brings back some MLB-ready pitching.

You’re never going to know what Westburg and Ortiz can do until they do it at the ML level.  You want guarantees?  They don’t exist in baseball.   Once the season starts and teams are set, it’s going to decrease the potential trade destinations.  Urías just proved his best value is at 3B.   If Henderson is going to play 3B, why ask Urías to play the position he’s average at while you’ve got a player who OPSd .850 for the year, and raked over .900 the last month of the season in AAA?   
 

 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

You can trade one of them out of a starting role if you think a prospect is ready to replace them just at the same or higher level of production. I don't think we have a player that fits that description as of today, and that sentiment remains until at least the beginning of spring training if not through opening day. I think that at a minimum, you need to give it a month of the minor league season to see if one of the prospects is just raking and making a case for a promotion. 

So while our infield is a position group of great strength, I don' think you can declare it as one of known, reliable depth. We have 4 starters for 4 positions at the moment, with one of them requiring a position change. I'm not sure I'd be real motivated to trade out of that scenario unless I think I'm winning a lopsided trade that brings back some MLB-ready pitching.

Urias is a good player but he has a definite ceiling. He's a decent hitter but not a MOOB. He is a great 3B but doesn't have much versatility beyond that. Same with Mateo, great SS but can't hit. I think we all agree we would want fair return but let's not pretend these guys are elite. There may be some risk of losing production at one of their spots, but if a trade helps us more in other areas it is worth it. 

The fact Urias and Mateo play Gunnar's best positions really hurts them as long term pieces for the O's. If we can find a team with a surplus of pitching, I think it makes sense to trade them for a controlled pitcher of reasonably equivalent value.

[MCO'sFan]

You absolutely shop Urias. The problem is... what can you get for him. If teams think you have to move him, it hurts his value. ME isn't going to telegraph this move. I like Urias, he is a good player. We need better players and I think we have them in the minors. It is time for Westburg and Ortiz to get MLB reps. 

[Camden Yards]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So a little more than a lottery ticket? If that’s all you can get you keep him.

Urias is controlled for three additional years. 

[LookinUp]

You sign Correa and trade three of Urias, Mateo, Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg and Norby.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

Urias is controlled for three additional years. 

Yeah I agre that it’s not comp value. I’m expecting a controlled SP or a couple of meaningful prospects. This depends on if Elias really is intent on spending on someone like Rondon. Then you can add to the prospect pool when trading your depth. 

[MarCakes21]

So if we're looking to trade either Urias or Mateo, we're talking about someone of approximately these value wise:

Skubal, Singer, Lopez, Steele, Freeland, Gray, Suarez, Detmers

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

So if we're looking to trade either Urias or Mateo, we're talking about someone of approximately these value wise:

Skubal, Singer, Lopez, Steele, Freeland, Gray, Suarez, Detmers

If Skubal is an option in a Mateo and/or Urias package, we should be at that table.

[MarCakes21]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If Skubal is an option in a Mateo and/or Urias package, we should be at that table.

I think we should look at Merril Kelly who is a step above those guys, so we'd have to add a piece.  But they could use the IF help.

[turtlebowl]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

You sign Correa and trade three of Urias, Mateo, Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg and Norby.

I don't like the idea of spending 30 million+ per year when you may have close the the equivalent in one of the players you are willing to move that would be making league minimum.  I am not saying Ortiz, Westburg or Norby is the next Correa but for the difference in cost I don't see the value in doing that.  That 30 Million can be used to fill depth in our pitching staff.  That allows the O's to keep most of the cheaper controllable assets. 

I think midway through next season you will have a much better idea where this group fits.  The last thing I want to see us do is trade a potential young superstar for a pitcher that could blow out his arm.  Of course any trade is risky but why risk it now when you can just spend money which allows more opportunity to get data on our younger positional players.   

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, turtlebowl said:

I don't like the idea of spending 30 million+ per year when you may have close the the equivalent in one of the players you are willing to move that would be making league minimum.  I am not saying Ortiz, Westburg or Norby is the next Correa but for the difference in cost I don't see the value in doing that.  That 30 Million can be used to fill depth in our pitching staff.  That allows the O's to keep most of the cheaper controllable assets. 

I think midway through next season you will have a much better idea where this group fits.  The last thing I want to see us do is trade a potential young superstar for a pitcher that could blow out his arm.  Of course any trade is risky but why risk it now when you can just spend money which allows more opportunity to get data on our younger positional players.   

Only matters  what Elias is willing to spend. I’ve discussed adding Correa and Benintendi both of whom would be at the top of the OBP category on the Orioles. Which would drastically improve the run output. If you are not serious about contending then going with the youngs guys mojo is a sound alternative. But you can’t expect these guys to come up and do a .360ish OBP. The problem with our runs output is having too many of the .330 or less guys. 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

So if we're looking to trade either Urias or Mateo, we're talking about someone of approximately these value wise:

Skubal, Singer, Lopez, Steele, Freeland, Gray, Suarez, Detmers

Good list except Singer. He would cost way more than Urias and KC would want Cowser/Hall prospects back.

[turtlebowl]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Only matters  what Elias is willing to spend. I’ve discussed adding Correa and Benintendi both of whom would be at the top of the OBP category on the Orioles. Which would drastically improve the run output. If you are not serious about contending then going with the youngs guys mojo is a sound alternative. But you can’t expect these guys to come up and do a .360ish OBP. The problem with our runs output is having too many of the .330 or less guys. 

I am fine with Benintendi for the reason you said, increasing our OBP. He is also an above average defensive player so that is a huge plus. 
 

You could also look at it from the perspective that Vavra possibly could put up similar numbers at a minimum cost. Again this is why this off season is so interesting because none of these decisions seem obvious because of the internal options which are still risky because of the unknown.