“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[mall-O-cup]

13 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Crane had some of the best front office staff personnel in baseball during that run.

Having said that, Abreu has a chance to maintain his level of performance.  I just don’t support the Orioles paying $19.5 mil per for 3 years on that bet.

 

[mall-O-cup]

Just now, mall-O-cup said:

 

Sounds like a smart man.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'll be honest, I was babysitting yesterday and my attention was more than a little divided, so I missed Ortiz's name in there. My bad.

Nonetheless, I think both of our hypothetical offers are probably on the light side and that there will be at least one team out there, maybe more than one, that would offer a more attractive headliner than Cowser or more total value, and even Cowser is probably a steeper price than Elias is willing to pay at this juncture.

 

 

The overwhelming majority of baseball players, hitters and pitchers alike, are toast well before age 40.

And Ortiz is a pretty good comp for Cruz since he used some of the same "training regimens" as Cruz.

I remain steadfast in my belief though that letting him walk was the correct decision at the time. Hindsight may disagree, but there was no way to know then that Cruz would somehow perform in the 99th percentile of all players ever at his age.

We disagree.  Disparage his performance all you want but he was out there per MLB for the years he was signed for.  Fact is he provided much value to the clubs who disagreed not once but twice with you (Seattle AND Twins) while your approach removed his crucial bat ( and let Markakis walk too)  from the 2014 ALCS team that was replaced with ????? Travis Snider .  
I remain steadfast in believing not giving Cruz an additional year was nowhere near the risk incurred  by the other poor choices made that offseason. 
And the results were as expected when the team had these critical resources removed and not replaced much less upgraded. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'll be honest, I was babysitting yesterday and my attention was more than a little divided, so I missed Ortiz's name in there. My bad.

Nonetheless, I think both of our hypothetical offers are probably on the light side and that there will be at least one team out there, maybe more than one, that would offer a more attractive headliner than Cowser or more total value, and even Cowser is probably a steeper price than Elias is willing to pay at this juncture.

 

 

The overwhelming majority of baseball players, hitters and pitchers alike, are toast well before age 40.

And Ortiz is a pretty good comp for Cruz since he used some of the same "training regimens" as Cruz.

I remain steadfast in my belief though that letting him walk was the correct decision at the time. Hindsight may disagree, but there was no way to know then that Cruz would somehow perform in the 99th percentile of all players ever at his age.

Why would Cowser be a steeper price than Elias is willing to pay for an ACE? I think he’d send the offer you mention with haste.

If your ever going to have the upper hand in a trade it’s now.

Honestly, I’d offer Grayson in a much smaller deal. We can only dream that he will become Burnes. 
 

Maybe Grayson, Norby, and Ortiz

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Why would Cowser be a steeper price than Elias is willing to pay for an ACE? I think he’d send the offer you mention with haste.

If your ever going to have the upper hand in a trade it’s now.

Honestly, I’d offer Grayson in a much smaller deal. We can only dream that he will become Burnes. 
 

Maybe Grayson, Norby, and Ortiz

I'm concenred over how willing Elias is going to be to trade these guys.  At least until I see it start to happen.

[NCRaven]

The greatest I ever saw at getting hit by pitches was Ernie Pantusso.  You could not miss him.

[owknows]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm concenred over how willing Elias is going to be to trade these guys.  At least until I see it start to happen.

I'm a little concerned about this too.

As we've discussed before, there's a serious log jam on the horizon.

Middle infield and potentially outfield.

Gonna have to move some players.

The trick of it I suppose, is knowing which ones to move.

Elias should have the advantage of being more familiar with his own players than potential suitors would be... but that only gets you so far... you have to move highly regarded players before you get a chance to fully assess their MLB performance... or you run the risk of tipping your hand (exposing players as less or more capable at the MLB level)

Elias has the luxury of having both MLB and MiLB resources he can move today... Say for examples Hays, or Mullins... or Mateo and Urias...   that though, only begins to clean up the impending logjam.

If you wait too long, you're stuck with a bunch of players you HAVE to unload.. and then you get fleeced

[jamalshw]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm concenred over how willing Elias is going to be to trade these guys.  At least until I see it start to happen.

I can see him move guys from the upper-level infield surplus. But I, too, am skeptical he'll trade any higher-level pitchers. Honestly, I doubt he trades much from the pipeline outside of what has proven to be a surplus at the higher-levels. Essentially, with Mateo, Urias, Ortiz, Norby, and Westburg, we have five players for 2 (maybe 3) spots. He'll obviously prefer to move Mateo and Urias as they're the older players, but I could see a couple of the Norby, Westburg, Ortiz (and we can throw Hernaiz in there, too). Given Henderson has arrived, there's some depth in the aforementioned group, plus guys like Holliday, Wagner, Bencosme, etc are just a couple years behind.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Why would Cowser be a steeper price than Elias is willing to pay for an ACE? I think he’d send the offer you mention with haste.

If your ever going to have the upper hand in a trade it’s now.

Honestly, I’d offer Grayson in a much smaller deal. We can only dream that he will become Burnes. 
 

Maybe Grayson, Norby, and Ortiz

Burnes has two years of control left and he will have banked over $15 million dollars in his career by the end of year 1, so he may not be interested in forgoing his first trip into free agency to sign an extension with us. There is simply no way I am trading 6 years of Grayson for 2 years of Burnes, or virtually anyone else for that matter. He is the best pitching prospect in baseball and looks every bit the part of a future rotation anchor for the Orioles. 

Cowser, OTOH, I can probably be talked into if other significant moves are going to be made in conjunction with such a trade, but I believe that Elias values 6 years of Cowser (plus the rest of the necessary trade package) higher than he would 2 years of Burnes.

42 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

We disagree.  Disparage his performance all you want but he was out there per MLB for the years he was signed for.  Fact is he provided much value to the clubs who disagreed not once but twice with you (Seattle AND Twins) while your approach removed his crucial bat ( and let Markakis walk too)  from the 2014 ALCS team that was replaced with ????? Travis Snider .  
I remain steadfast in believing not giving Cruz an additional year was nowhere near the risk incurred  by the other poor choices made that offseason. 
And the results were as expected when the team had these critical resources removed and not replaced much less upgraded. 

You are speaking with the benefit of hindsight and you are discounting just how abnormal (perhaps even unnatural, you might say) his performance was during that 4 year contract. Baseball players generally do not peak in their late 30s, especially injury-prone DH types.

There was virtually no reason to expect that outcome and I am not going to criticize the Orioles for not accurately predicting a genuine black swan event.

[mlrhode]

27 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

The greatest I ever saw at getting hit by pitches was Ernie Pantusso.  You could not miss him.

COACH!!!

[tntoriole]

20 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Burnes has two years of control left and he will have banked over $15 million dollars in his career by the end of year 1, so he may not be interested in forgoing his first trip into free agency to sign an extension with us. There is simply no way I am trading 6 years of Grayson for 2 years of Burnes, or virtually anyone else for that matter. He is the best pitching prospect in baseball and looks every bit the part of a future rotation anchor for the Orioles. 

Cowser, OTOH, I can probably be talked into if other significant moves are going to be made in conjunction with such a trade, but I believe that Elias values 6 years of Cowser (plus the rest of the necessary trade package) higher than he would 2 years of Burnes.

You are speaking with the benefit of hindsight and you are discounting just how abnormal (perhaps even unnatural, you might say) his performance was during that 4 year contract. Baseball players generally do not peak in their late 30s, especially injury-prone DH types.

There was virtually no reason to expect that outcome and I am not going to criticize the Orioles for not accurately predicting a genuine black swan event.

I am happy to go back and show you my quotes on this board PRIOR to the decision in 2014  so please stop with the  “hindsight” remarks. 
 

And the Seattle and Twins GMs agreed with me, not with you and Duquette.  They were just misinformed and  i guess. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by tntoriole

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm concenred over how willing Elias is going to be to trade these guys.  At least until I see it start to happen.

I’m not very concerned.  He’s publicly stated he may need to trade some guys.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not very concerned.  He’s publicly stated he may need to trade some guys.  

It might end up not being an issue.

Hopefully it won't.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

I am happy to go back and show you my quotes on this board PRIOR to the decision in 2014  so please stop with the  “hindsight” remarks. 

I am sure you were in favor of it, plenty of Orioles fans were. 

Plenty of other fans, and most baseball FOs, disagreed though, because the data said it was a really bad idea.

Cruz found some kind of "magical" fountain of youth and defied the odds, and was a much better player in his mid-late 30s than he was in his mid-late 20s. Oh well. 

[RZNJ]

Mateo, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby.    That's 5 guys for two spots, unless someone finds a new position.   You can slow play the three prospects to buy more time but there will be a log jam by mid-season if not sooner.    The question is who goes, who stays, and who has more value?

Again, my best guess is that Henderson (3B), Mateo (SS), and Westburg (2B) start the season.   Ortiz can play either position and he's great insurance for either.    I think that makes Norby the most likely trade candidate along with Urias out of the 5 playes mentioned and that still leaves us with depth in the MI with Ortiz at AAA.

I do not believe you are going to see some kind of blockbuster trade where 3 top 10 prospects are dealt.   I do not think Cowser goes.   Ortiz, Westburg, or Norby are most likely and I think Norby is most likely.