How much better would Carlos Correa make the O's?

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

And Correa could turn into Robinson Cano. Bottom line, the organization is deeper at middle infield than any other position. We could trade some of those guys for pitching and still fill the position and capture most of Correa's production at a fraction of the cost. I still say there are more efficient ways to spend his $30M+ AAV.

You don’t need to convince me. I’m not the GM

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I Didn’t vetting. I simply shared a couple post that claimed we are in on Correa. Two of the three had a good number of followers. With Rob and the lurker they just seem to want to take shots. I don’t believe we are signing anything other than bargain bin guys until it happens. Last year the bargain bin was around 7 million. This year it appears to be less than $20 million per.

Not that, the other thing.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

You don’t need to convince me. I’m not the GM

Well, you called my earlier post stupid.

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Contract estimates range from 8 to 10 year;  240-300M.    Rumors are flying.   Is Elias really in on him?   How much would he improve the team?   Is he worth that kind of contract to the O's?  What about Ortiz and Holliday?

Time to weigh in.

He allows us to trade a seriously high-end prospect to get a seriously high-end SP.  So with that line of thinking I believe he improves the team dramatically.  

[emmett16]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Stupid would be signing Correa for 10 years when we already have a 3 WAR SS and a superstar ready to come in within 3 years. Basically paying $300M for a couple WAR in the next two years. I know Gunnar is playing 3B but he is capable of SS and would keep Correa from sliding over when Holliday is ready. There are much better ways to spend $300M, especially if the goal in doing so is to acquire pitching.

Correa is just another asset.  If they think they have a better chance signing him than some of the available pitchers on, then they'd be silly to not take the asset available.   That in turn allows them to flip a package for a more impactful pitcher.  I do not think it will happen, but I'd be thrilled.   I think the chances this org signs a high-end position player is a lot better than a high-end pitcher.  

For the record I’m not advocating going hard for him, just that we’d be remiss to not explore all avenues and there is a world where it could be a good move.  

Edited December 1, 2022 by emmett16

[jrobb21613]

Whether committing  300 million to Correa is the finically responsible thing to do or not I’m not sure but Our lineup on paper would look a whole heck of a lot better with Carlos Correa penciled in at ss.

Edited December 1, 2022 by jrobb21613

[MijiT88]

Man, all this Correa talk reminds me of Tex rumors on him coming to baltimore. I am just tired of hearing about a move that doesnt make sense for how this team has to compete for the long term. If you read and listen to what ME says something like this is not the way they will be doing business. I do not understand why so many people are clamoring for Correa. I didn't want him for his price last year and I more so don't want it this year. We can be much smarter about how we spend payroll and I hope ME is that smart as well, and I believe he is. 

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Well, you called my earlier post stupid.

Henderson is gong to play 3B, Ortiz isn’t ready and Holiday is still years away. The team has issues with OBP and Run Differential. 
 

Elias has said he’s going to add a SP that obviously better than Lyles and 2 hitters with one being a MOO bat.

Continuing on playing the kids doesn’t say you are in compete now mode. If they are doing what Elias said hes got more than $30 million to play with. Otherwise he’s not getting it done.

Moving forward I expect them to trade off some of the prospects and keep the best ones, working them in when they are ready.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Henderson is gong to play 3B, Ortiz isn’t ready and Holiday is still years away. The team has issues with OBP and Run Differential. 
 

Elias has said he’s going to add a SP that obviously better than Lyles and 2 hitters with one being a MOO bat.

Continuing on playing the kids doesn’t say you are in compete now mode. If they are doing what Elias said hes got more than $30 million to play with. Otherwise he’s not getting it done.

Moving forward I expect them to trade off some of the prospects and keep the best ones, working them in when they are ready.

How ironic. We're in win-now mode because we played the kids.

Edited December 1, 2022 by RZNJ

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Henderson is gong to play 3B, Ortiz isn’t ready and Holiday is still years away. The team has issues with OBP and Run Differential. 

Ortiz is 24, put up a combined OPS of .826 in Bowie/Norfolk last year, including a .967 at Norfolk (albeit in just 26 games) and supposedly plays elite defense at SS.

I'm not fundamentally opposed to signing Correa and there's no guarantee that Ortiz would be an upgrade, but you can't definitely say that he isn't ready.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Henderson is gong to play 3B, Ortiz isn’t ready and Holiday is still years away. The team has issues with OBP and Run Differential. 
 

Elias has said he’s going to add a SP that obviously better than Lyles and 2 hitters with one being a MOO bat.

Continuing on playing the kids doesn’t say you are in compete now mode. If they are doing what Elias said hes got more than $30 million to play with. Otherwise he’s not getting it done.

Moving forward I expect them to trade off some of the prospects and keep the best ones, working them in when they are ready.

 

I already answered most of these points. Yes, we have a hole for the next year or so at SS, but $300M would be a big overpay to fill it.  I think there is a difference between win-now and going all in. Signing Correa and trading Holliday for pitching would be the all in move. I would be extremely surprised to see Elias do a complete 180 and go all in for 2023 in the most extreme way possible. 

I am not opposed to trading prospects for pitching, in fact I started a thread with packages for potentially available pitchers. That said I would be extremely reluctant to trade any of our top three as they are potentially generational talents. 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 

I already answered most of these points. Yes, we have a hole for the next year or so at SS, but $300M would be a big overpay to fill it. 

 

We do?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How ironic. We're in win-now mode because we played the kids.

Yeah, but if we replace them with expensive vets on regrettable contracts, we'll somehow be better off in the long run.

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I am not opposed to trading prospects for pitching, in fact I started a thread with packages for potentially available pitchers. That said I would be extremely reluctant to trade any of our top three as they are potentially generational talents. 

Gunnar and Grayson are completely untouchable IMO, and Jackson is not far behind them. It's crazy how advanced of a hitter he already is at only 18 years old. Good genes I guess.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 

I already answered most of these points. Yes, we have a hole for the next year or so at SS, but $300M would be a big overpay to fill it.  I think there is a difference between win-now and going all in. Signing Correa and trading Holliday for pitching would be the all in move. I would be extremely surprised to see Elias do a complete 180 and go all in for 2023 in the most extreme way possible. 

I am not opposed to trading prospects for pitching, in fact I started a thread with packages for potentially available pitchers. That said I would be extremely reluctant to trade any of our top three as they are potentially generational talents. 

 

I think they can get a good SP without trading Holiday. I’m not opposed to Correa and perhaps they trade Ortiz if he’s attractive in a package for Burnes. I’ve mentioned getting rid of the low OBP guys. Adding high OBP guys like Correa and Benintendi would improve the team. It’s not my money and don’t have a say. I know the payroll was $40 million and even a jump to $100-$120 million would seem like shifting into the fast lane. But, it really isn’t as it would only be somewhere in the middle and well short of the $275 million that includes revenue sharing $110 million, $100 in Their share of the National tv deals, and the 52% of their revenue that’s not included in revenue sharing. Yes they have other expenses but even if it’s $20 million in other operating expenses your still not sniffing what should be available. If I was going to sign Correa I’d front load a contract and give him a opt out after 3. Say $35 per over the first three and a drop off after that. Maybe 8 years with 2 options= 10 year 35, 35, 35,30, 30, 30, 25, 25, options 40, 40. 
 

Give him an opt out after 3 years with 15 million term bonus. Then the option are mutual with a $15million buyout. So he can leave after 3 and definitely gone after 6 unless he defies age. 

WAR value in 2023 = 8 million the value should continue to rise incrementally. 

Hopefully you get 5 War, 5 WAR, 4.5 WAR, 4 WAR, 4WAR, 3.5 WAR. Even if he averages 4 WINS. That $192 in value over 6 years. You only negative $3 million or less than 1/2 a WAR. 

40 million, 40 million, 36 million, (after 3 you’ve won by 14 million)

After 6 - 40 million, 40 million, 36 million, 32 million, 32 million, 28 million.  $208 after 6 years. And 3 (24 million)WAR in 7 & 8.

I’m just spitballing but you probably want him to opt out after three and can get 13-15 WAR for $105 million vs $120 in value. 
 

Just spitballing here

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm just spitballing here when I say I'm really not interested in Correa.  As mentioned, we've got enough SS/MI talent currently and on the horizon.  I'd rather take dollars aimed at Correa and spend them elsewhere.

I'm sure he'd look good in orange and black and I'd have no problem rooting for him if we landed him but I'm more interested to see what Henderson and Holiday have at SS and Ortiz, too.  Spending big money on a strength like this doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.