How much better would Carlos Correa make the O's?

[Fiver6565]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Wing it.  Correa will probably have some kind of opt out after 3 years, which would be just fine.  You can also trade him.  You can also move him to 3B and trade Gunnar for a haul.   Ask me in 2-3 years.

In addition to this there's also the DH spot, and you might want to move Correa off SS when he's three years older anyway.  Holliday should not be a factor in any way when it comes to Correa.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think you’re wrong.  The question is his durability.  Over 145 games, he’s prove that he is a 5 WAR player.

Well, im sure the odds are on his side to be healthier as he gets older and be worth more WAR at a different position.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

In addition to this there's also the DH spot, and you might want to move Correa off SS when he's three years older anyway.  Holliday should not be a factor in any way when it comes to Correa.

So, you are going to spend 30-35M a year for 30 something DH/IF uti guy that has a history of injury issues and up and down offensive output?

Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

[RZNJ]

In my perfect world we’d roll with Ortiz at SS and Westburg at 2B, trade Mateo, sign Bassitt or someone similar, and roll with the baby birds.

However, I can envision a world where signing Correa could be a strategy. The two easiest places to pick up offense are SS and 2B based on the production we got there last year.  I’d rather spend the minimum on Ortiz and see what he can do but Correa is a proven commodity.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, im sure the odds are on his side to be healthier as he gets older and be worth more WAR at a different position.

Funny you should say that. That’s exactly what has happened.  He played more games the last two years than over any two year period previously.  Also not sure how soon the 28 year old needs to change positions but he could be a 5 WAR player at 3B too.

[Fiver6565]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, you are going to spend 30-35M a year for 30 something DH/IF uti guy that has a history of injury issues and up and down offensive output?

Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Not saying that's the ideal scenario, just pointing out its yet another option to move him off SS if needs be.

[Sports Guy]

FG is the best for WAR for position players.  Correa has been at or over 5 WAR twice in his career. In his 7 seasons in the majors (not including 2020), he has only been 4 or better in 1 other season.

After posting many good OAA's at SS, he was -3 last year.  Bad year or a sign of a decline?

Most of the 3rd baseman who were 5+ WAR guys in 2022 (not many) are better offensive players than he is. How good would his defense be?  He could be Alex Bregman offensively and if he can match his defense, he will be a 5 WAR guy.

The likeliest outcome is that he will be a 4ish WAR guy the next few years and then he will have to move off SS and you will paying high end, elite premium position money to someone playing a new position that doesn't have as much value as the one you signed him to play.

Meanwhile, you will have blocked younger players with good upside (and eventually elite upside with Holliday) so that you can maybe get an extra win or 2 in 2023 and 2024.

Nothing about that sounds like an intelligent idea and it certainly isn't how the Astros would handle it.  In fact, they refused to pay this exact player a deal like this.  The team that drafted him and knew him better than anyone else said, no thanks.  We will roll with an unproven rookie instead because we don't do dumb things like this.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, you are going to spend 30-35M a year for 30 something DH/IF uti guy that has a history of injury issues and up and down offensive output?

Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

What do you consider “up and down” offensive output?  6 of 8 seasons are very solid.  The other two seasons consisted of a partial COVID season and 2018 when he was limited to 110 games.

I acknowledge that his durability is in question but he is a 5 WAR player when healthy and he’s been relatively healthy the last two years and he just turned 28.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

What do you consider “up and down” offensive output?  6 of 8 seasons are very solid.  The other two seasons consisted of a partial COVID season and 2018 when he was limited to 110 games.

I acknowledge that his durability is in question but he is a 5 WAR player when healthy and he’s been relatively healthy the last two years and he just turned 28.

He played in 132 games in 2022.  He missed almost 20% of the season in one of his "durable" years.

And if you are going to dismiss a year where he struggled in only 110 games, what about the 109 game season where his OPS was almost 950?

When I say up and down, I don't mean he hasn't been good but in 4 of his seasons, his OPS has been under 840, with only one of those seasons over 815.  So, its been a little up and down.  Still been good most years outside of 2020 (take that season with a grain of salt though) but not always elite with the bat. A year at third with a 770-810 OPS won't hold the same value as it would at SS, especially as an above average defensive SS, as he has been prior to 2022.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

FG is the best for WAR for position players.  Correa has been at or over 5 WAR twice in his career. In his 7 seasons in the majors (not including 2020), he has only been 4 or better in 1 other season.

After posting many good OAA's at SS, he was -3 last year.  Bad year or a sign of a decline?

Most of the 3rd baseman who were 5+ WAR guys in 2022 (not many) are better offensive players than he is. How good would his defense be?  He could be Alex Bregman offensively and if he can match his defense, he will be a 5 WAR guy.

The likeliest outcome is that he will be a 4ish WAR guy the next few years and then he will have to move off SS and you will paying high end, elite premium position money to someone playing a new position that doesn't have as much value as the one you signed him to play.

Meanwhile, you will have blocked younger players with good upside (and eventually elite upside with Holliday) so that you can maybe get an extra win or 2 in 2023 and 2024.

Nothing about that sounds like an intelligent idea and it certainly isn't how the Astros would handle it.  In fact, they refused to pay this exact player a deal like this.  The team that drafted him and knew him better than anyone else said, no thanks.  We will roll with an unproven rookie instead because we don't do dumb things like this.

Get real.  Correa was 6.2 in 2021 and 4.4 last year.  In 2019 he was 3.8 in HALF (75 games) a season.  In 2018 he was 3.4 in 110 games.   When he stays on the field he’s been a 5 WAR player.   The question is his durability moving forward.  The last two years were good and he’s only 28.    

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

What are you suggesting?

Cowser, Hall, Ortiz, and 2 15ish guys 

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Cowser, Hall, Ortiz, and 2 15ish guys 

That might get it done. I would bet they get someone higher than Cowser at the centerpiece but if you could convince them to take a volume deal this could work. Would be a fun two years with Burnes and Correa. We'll see in 2026 or so whether we regret it. 

I still don't see how Burnes makes Correa a good fit long term. Personally, I'd be inclined deal for Burnes if we can get him without costing Holliday, then pass on Correa and find other ways to upgrade the offense.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I think its logical to acquire 5+ win players anytime you can.    Earl said just give me all the bleepin' shortstops and he'll sort it out.

Just the coincidence of our GM and Correa's history makes it a juicier speculation, but I also think there's a fringe benefit if they like Mateo for a super-sub role.     I believe it would be easier for Hyde to sell unseating Mateo with Correa than Urias with Gunnar.

We know generically Decision Sciences thinks Bats safer than Arms, at least while you are just in talent accumulation phase.     The '23-'24 Adley teams before Holliday are no sure bet to have a winning SS.    As is the Orioles are probably going to be in the Bottom 5-10 of something like Fangraphs SS power rankings, and they could easily be there again next year.    Mateo's top of his range (probably) 2022 put BAL 14th in WAA for shortstop last year.

I don’t know why people discount the idea of Gunnar playing SS.   From what I saw and read, he’s certainly big league average there defensively, and will be way above average offensively.   It’s a very viable option IMO.  Then you relegate Mateo to utility player, or trade him.  And if three months go by and Ortiz is hitting the snot out of the ball in AAA, you can bring him up and move Gunnar to 3B then if you need to.   I’m not saying this is the only option, or even  the best option (depending on trade value of Mateo and Urias).   It’s just one of several very good options we have.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know why people discount the idea of Gunnar playing SS.   From what I saw and read, he’s certainly big league average there defensively, and will be way above average offensively.   It’s a very viable option IMO.  Then you relegate Mateo to utility player, or trade him.  And if three months go by and Ortiz is hitting the snot out of the ball in AAA, you can bring him up and move Gunnar to 3B then if you need to.   I’m not saying this is the only option, or even  the best option (depending on trade value of Mateo and Urias).   It’s just one of several very good options we have.  

The key is to make sure he plays enough at third and second to be eligible at all three positions for fantasy baseball.

Other than that, yep, put him at short until he proves he can't handle it.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know why people discount the idea of Gunnar playing SS.  

You're only playing Gunnar at SS if you're signing a 3B, right?

Is your idea to sign Correa and move him to 3B right away?