Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[Bemorewins]

All I will say about this is I sincerely hope this is the first signing of several. As fans, I know we don't all agree (rightfully so), but I can't be supportive of the Orioles going cheap this time. There's way TOO MUCH water under the bridge for the dam not to burst. We deserve better than "innings eaters" and "hoping everything breaks right for all the young guys". Why can't the org just do the right thing and spend some money comparative to the other clubs? Having a bottom third payroll doesn't make sense anymore (given where we are in terms of talent and ability to start running toward and into the post season.

I'm holding out hope that things will be different this time, but I can't support budgeting for billionaires. The team is a public trust, us tax payers in Maryland have always footed the bill for the stadium. It's time that the organization and leadership treat us better then trying to "nickel and dime" and "scotch taping things together". IMO Kyle Gibson is not a step in the right direction. But it's still early and we have time to get some difference makers.

[btdart20]

This is clearly an upgrade over Lyles. Not the TOR we need, but a solid above-average inning-eater. 

Compared to Lyles, Gibson has better movement on his sinker, much higher chase%, better GB rate, less barrel%, better xISO, xERA, xBA, Whiff%, and less HR (in a much more HR friendly park) in 2022.  Lyles floor heading into 2022 (ie pre-Holt) was much lower then Gibson’s heading into 2023.  Lyles just posted one of his best years.  Gibson just posted top line stats negatively out of line with solid metrics under the hood.

His sinker is the pitch that can be used/sequenced better.  Great movement, but a -4 run value seems odd.

Most of his pitches have vertical action.  If he can get that sweeping slider that Holt teaches, it’ll give him something with horizontal action in his bag of tricks.  Gibson’s 2019 stats are with a plus horizontal break on his slider, so he’s capable.

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

If this is the only best starting pitcher we add this offseason, then it's a failure. I want to see the cost of the contract. If it's equal to or larger than Lyle's option, then I am not happy with it.

[Moose Milligan]

Guys, do you think we could flip him at the deadline for prospects?!?!?!?!?!?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

22 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Gibson has been better than Wacha over the last two seasons by almost any measure. 

I don't particularly care for Wacha overall but he was significantly better than Gibson last year and over his entire career. 

24 minutes ago, waroriole said:

That’s a very large variance in cost and quality. Obviously a Verlander and Bassitt pairing is not reasonable. I’d consider Gibson to be comparable to a lot of people you listed. 

Obviously different combinations are more plausible than others, but I would consider all of those guys pretty good bets to be better than Lyles or Gibson in 2023.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Guys, do you think we could flip him at the deadline for prospects?!?!?!?!?!?

Yes. The Cardinals 24th best prospect. 

[SpOkane]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Guys, do you think we could flip him at the deadline for prospects?!?!?!?!?!?

Yes. Druw Jones.

[WarehouseChatter]

We need veteran SP depth.  It’s a very young and inexperienced rotation.  I think a guy like Gibson could help with the young pitchers and clubhouse.  I don’t mind this move at all.  He’ll also be moving into a much friendlier park.  

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Camden Yards said:

I hope he is a replacement for like Bradish. Maybe we are trading Bradish and Hays to the Marlins for Lopez. Then we are trading some young guys for Brian Reynolds who just requested a trade. We already have a ton of Gibson’s in the possible rotation with Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth, and Watkins. Gibson has pitched ten seasons with three of the being above 100 ERA+. 
Folks it’s time to wake up and hold folks accountable. We have been so mediocre at all we make excuses for poor signings ie He is Lyles 2.0, we probably got him for less than Lyles, we not done yet, etc. I don’t care how much we paid for him- it’s not my money. 

Bradish is the one O's starter I don't want the O's to trade.  Besides of course GrayRod.  The second half he showed he has the upside of a #3 starter. 

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Guys, do you think we could flip him at the deadline for prospects?!?!?!?!?!?

I know that you’re just joking but some jokes hurt…lol

Haven’t we done enough prospect chasing and accumulation over the last 5 years? I’m ready for some October baseball and roster construction that is aimed at that goal, not just being the best farm system in baseball.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He's old and he sucks and he's pretty much always sucked.

Statements like this always annoy me.  The guy has been worth 14.1 rWAR, 17.9 fWAR in his career and has pitched in the majors for a decade.  Do you know how few pitchers accomplish that?  It’s a very small fraction of everyone who reaches the majors.  

Gibson debuted in the majors in 2013, one of 145 pitchers to debut that year. 126 of them were out of MLB before 2022.  Exactly 7 of them have a higher career rWAR than Gibson.  Only one of the 145 — Gerritt Cole — has started more games or pitched more innings than Gibson.  To say he has “pretty much always sucked” is really disrespectful to what he’s accomplished in his career.  
 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Statements like this always annoy me.  The guy has been worth 14.1 rWAR, 17.9 fWAR in his career and has pitched in the majors for a decade.  Do you know how few pitchers accomplish that?  It’s a very small fraction of everyone who reaches the majors.  

Gibson debuted in the majors in 2013, one of 145 pitchers to debut that year. 126 of them were out of MLB before 2022.  Exactly 7 of them have a higher career rWAR than Gibson.  Only one of the 145 — Gerritt Cole — has started more games or pitched more innings than Gibson.  To say he has “pretty much always sucked” is really disrespectful to what he’s accomplished in his career.  
 

It was intentional hyperbole that was supposed to sound immature and petulant, but there is a kernel of truth to it. He has played 10 years the MLB level and has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in 5 of those 10 seasons and ~4.50 or higher in 7 of those 10 seasons. 

[Jammer7]

35 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

This is clearly an upgrade over Lyles. Not the TOR we need, but a solid above-average inning-eater. 

Compared to Lyles, Gibson has better movement on his sinker, much higher chase%, better GB rate, less barrel%, better xISO, xERA, xBA, Whiff%, and less HR (in a much more HR friendly park) in 2022.  Lyles floor heading into 2022 (ie pre-Holt) was much lower then Gibson’s heading into 2023.  Lyles just posted one of his best years.  Gibson just posted top line stats negatively out of line with solid metrics under the hood.

His sinker is the pitch that can be used/sequenced better.  Great movement, but a -4 run value seems odd.

Most of his pitches have vertical action.  If he can get that sweeping slider that Holt teaches, it’ll give him something with horizontal action in his bag of tricks.  Gibson’s 2019 stats are with a plus horizontal break on his slider, so he’s capable.

This. Clear upgrade, indeed. This is a signing that winning MLB teams make. According to Nathan Ruiz, he would have had 25% less home runs in 2022 had he played in Camden Yards. In his 2021 All Star season with Texas, he had a 3.71 ERA in 182 innings between the Rangers and Phillies. A 2.89 ERA with the Rangers in 19 starts. 

Not a TOR, but for a FA signing in early December, I am happy with it. Looking at his analytics suggests he can be used better in Baltimore in 2023. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-gibson/10123/stats?position=P

[emmett16]

Might need to take some time away from the hot stove for a while…

Edited December 4, 2022 by emmett16

[MarCakes21]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

This. Clear upgrade, indeed. This is a signing that winning MLB teams make. According to Nathan Ruiz, he would have had 25% less home runs in 2022 had he played in Camden Yards. In his 2021 All Star season with Texas, he had a 3.71 ERA in 182 innings between the Rangers and Phillies. A 2.89 ERA with the Rangers in 19 starts. 

Not a TOR, but for a FA signing in early December, I am happy with it. Looking at his analytics suggests he can be used better in Baltimore in 2023. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-gibson/10123/stats?position=P

Exactly, how much would this guy have gotten exactly 1 year ago.  Now were saying hes awful.