Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[DrinkinWithFermi]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

 

You're biggest complaint seemed to be that this was a sideways move from Lyles.  Rodon would be the biggest improvement. Now you seem to be saying you'd prefer less upside and less risk.  Assuming health it's hard to argue any of the pitchers you listed being as good as Rodon.  You prefer a lesser pitcher at lower money and years.  Ok.   

Are you ok with Bassitt at 4/72, 4/80?

I am trying to find out if there is a point where you say it's too much money and risk for the tier 2 and tier 3 pitchers and it's been difficult to get an answer.

Of course risk needs to be factored in and weighed heavily when you're talking about what would be the single largest contract in franchise history, especially in light of the fact that the reigning champion ended up being one of the worst contracts in the history of sports contracts. None of the mid-rotation guys carry the franchise-crippling potential that Carlos Rodon carries. Bassitt at 4/$80 million is probably the upper limit of what any of the mid-rotation guys will get, but even that is a far cry from the 6/180 million Rodon may end up with when the dust settles on the bidding war for him.

As for whether I would do that contract for Bassitt, it would probably ultimately come down to where the bidding is for some of the other guys. It's right on the border of exceeding my comfort zone for him but I'm not going to completely reject the idea either. If I could get, say, Walker and a decent bullpen arm for a combined $22 million AAV, I might do that instead of committing $20 million AAV to Bassitt.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Pardon my saying so, but your hero worship of Holt is way over the top.  The 2020 Orioles had an ERA+ of 105.   In Holt’s first year, it dropped to 77.   This year he got it up to 102.   That’s great improvement over 2021, but why was it so bad in 2021 in the first place?   Kremer was worse than in 2020 that year.  Ditto Akin.  Ditto Fry.  Ditto Scott.   Ditto Lakins.  Ditto Eshelman.  Ditto Armstrong.  And lots of other guys on the Orioles for the first time crapped the bed.

Don’t get me wrong - I like Holt.  But he’s not some magician who’s going to improve every pitcher who joins the Orioles.  Will Gibson be slightly better in 2023 than in 2022?  I hope so, because 2022 was a below average year for him.

Gibson is a back of the rotation starter.  Nothing wrong with that, so long as he’s not being asked to be a front of rotation starter.  

 

Holt missed over a month in the middle of the 2021 season for unknown reasons.   It hurt the development of some of the pitching staff.  When the mentor is missing its tough. 

I am not saying Gibson is a TOR starter.  I just don't think we can place him at the bottom with Holt coaching changes to his pitches and approach in ST.  If you look at Baseball Savant evaluation of Gibson pitches over the last two years he has had good results with his pitches in one year or another.   Maybe Holt  gets him to tweak his repertoire.

I am confident Holt has done the evaluation of Gibson and knows what he thinks Gibson has to do to improve his results.  Everyone around Gibson in ST is going to be telling him to listen to Holt and telling him how Holt helped them.

And so far I think my feelings about Holt have been spot on.

Edited December 4, 2022 by wildcard

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 

 

You're biggest complaint seemed to be that this was a sideways move from Lyles.  Rodon would be the biggest improvement. Now you seem to be saying you'd prefer less upside and less risk.  Assuming health it's hard to argue any of the pitchers you listed being as good as Rodon.  You prefer a lesser pitcher at lower money and years.  Ok.   

Are you ok with Bassitt at 4/72, 4/80?

I am trying to find out if there is a point where you say it's too much money and risk for the tier 2 and tier 3 pitchers and it's been difficult to get an answer.

He saying the Angelo’s’ family has set a low payroll increase. 0-60 comment means that we should only expect the minor additions of basically guys that nobody really wants. And with whatever money we do have spread it around so there’s no risk. Finally, why block prospects that aren’t ready but he’s already pencilled in as superstars because they all are going to work out.

[wildcard]

Gibson is a 6 pitch pitcher.  Here are the batting average against from Baseball Savant  for 2021/2022.

Sinker     265/306

Cutter    222/244

Slider     182/221

4 Seamer   292/231

Change     202/263

Curve        208/429

Looks like there is plenty to work with.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-gibson-502043?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gibson is a 6 pitch pitcher.  Here are the batting average against from Baseball Savant  for 2021/2022.

Sinker     265/306

Cutter    222/244

Slider     182/221

4 Seamer   292/231

Change     202/263

Curve        208/429

Looks like there is plenty to work with.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-gibson-502043?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

There is a rumor on Twitter that said the contract is around $5 million.

[Moose Milligan]

Six pitches!!!!

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Gibson is a 6 pitch pitcher.  Here are the batting average against from Baseball Savant  for 2021/2022.

Sinker     265/306

Cutter    222/244

Slider     182/221

4 Seamer   292/231

Change     202/263

Curve        208/429

Looks like there is plenty to work with.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-gibson-502043?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

So let’s have him throw the slider more and the 4 seamer less!  I’m sure no other pitching coach could have unearthed this data!   Oh wait, some random guy on the internet just did…

Among other things, I don’t know why you give so much of the credit for any improvement by our staff to Holt.  We have more than a dozen people in the analytics department figuring out what our guys can do better and where our opponents can be attacked.  We have an assistant pitching coach in the dugout during games.  We have a Manager of Pitching Strategy.  We’ve got a coach in the bullpen.  How do we know which of these people contributed to the success of any particular pitcher?  

And, I’m not real high on the “Holt missed a month” excuse.  He was there all offseason before 2021.   He was there all of spring training.  He was there 5 of 6 months of the season.  Was he working with the pitchers remotely while he was away?   I don’t know.  Do you?  Did the team pitch better when he returned?  They had a 5.60 ERA in the first half, 6.15 in the second half.  Pretty sure Holt’s absence was in the first half.  

All this sounds like I’m down on Holt or don’t think he deserves any credit for the staff’s improvement.  That’s not the case.   I just don’t see him as the sole source of that improvement, and I don’t assign him magical powers.   And I have no idea what role, if any, he played in the decision to sign Gibson.  

 

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jordan Lyles 2022 is basically equivalent to career average Kyle Gibson.

ERA: 4.42 to 4.52

ERA+: 91 to 94

FIP: 4.40 to 4.29

WHIP: 1.39 to 1.39

 

Rodon is almost as big of an injury risk as deGrom but will most likely require an even longer commitment than deGrom got from Texas, and that is a landmine that the Orioles cannot afford to step on.

And there are about a dozen reasonably decent mid-rotation SPs available in free agency or via trade that would be upgrades for us that won't require extremely large, extremely risky 5-7 year commitments like Rodon- Bassitt, Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Walker, Flexen, Taillon, Wacha, Quintana, etc.

 

Lyles has a career year last year. It is possible he repeats but overall he is not in the same league as Gibson. He definitely isn't better. Gibson did not have our defense and Adley last year.

[Cheetos]

10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Normally I'd be on the "Boo hiss" train as @DrinkinWithFermicalls it, but I will say what Elias and his crew have been able to do with some scrap heap types has been fairly impressive.  If lumping Gibson in with the scrap heap types is being a bit harsh, so be it.  He's certainly not a top flight FA, nor is he in the 2nd tier.  IMO, this is a guy who would have probably been available when ST started.

But I don't think anyone thought we'd get the season out of Lyles that we did last year.  Same with Voth, his turnaround coming here was completely unexpected.  Rule 5 HoFer Wells has been a steal.  Watkins had his moments last year.  Jorge Lopez for half a season.  Baker and Perez in the pen.  Kremer, Akin, Tate (while not scrap heap types) were impressive.  

I ****cannot believe I am actually considering this franchise a place where pitchers can be rejuvenated and find success**** but here we are. 

So while Gibson isn't a sexy pickup on the surface...again, I can't believe I'm trusting of anything the Orioles do, but again, here we are...I'm betting that Elias and Sig see something that can be improved upon.  Like I said, Gibson seems to be a guy who'd be available at ST...so maybe the fact that they jumped on him relatively early in free agency means that they felt strongly about what they could help him with.

I was going to say this same thing.  The fact they targeted Gibson early in the process makes me think;

1 - They can get Lyles+ production at a lower cost.  Very few teams are so deep that their 4/5 spots are filled with 1/2.  Spend the extra money on your 2/3 starter. 

2 - They see something they can tweak to make Gibson more effective which could start with simply having a better D playing behind him.

I’ve seen post about blocking the young guys.  Well, it’s seems to be foolish not to have an older vet who takes the ball every 5 days and can help the Graysons and Halls.  Lyles is the best example of that.  And with Gibson, it sounds like you just got yourself a true one year stopgap.  If he fails to live up to his contract, you send him to the bullpen.  
 

[jerios55]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Pardon my saying so, but your hero worship of Holt is way over the top.  The 2020 Orioles had an ERA+ of 105.   In Holt’s first year, it dropped to 77.   This year he got it up to 102.   That’s great improvement over 2021, but why was it so bad in 2021 in the first place?   Kremer was worse than in 2020 that year.  Ditto Akin.  Ditto Fry.  Ditto Scott.   Ditto Lakins.  Ditto Eshelman.  Ditto Armstrong.  And lots of other guys on the Orioles for the first time crapped the bed.

I kind of figured he changed the process and players had some struggles through the change.   Fast forward, a few different players and a little more buy in and here we are.   But that's nothing more than gut feeling.  

[btdart20]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So let’s have him throw the slider more and the 4 seamer less!  I’m sure no other pitching coach could have unearthed this data!   Oh wait, some random guy on the internet just did…

Among other things, I don’t know why you give so much of the credit for any improvement by our staff to Holt.  We have more than a dozen people in the analytics department figuring out what our guys can do better and where our opponents can be attacked.  We have an assistant pitching coach in the dugout during games.  We have a Manager of Pitching Strategy.  We’ve got a coach in the bullpen.  How do we know which of these people contributed to the success of any particular pitcher?  

And, I’m not real high on the “Holt missed a month” excuse.  He was there all offseason before 2021.   He was there all of spring training.  He was there 5 of 6 months of the season.  Was he working with the pitchers remotely while he was away?   I don’t know.  Do you?  Did the team pitch better when he returned?  They had a 5.60 ERA in the first half, 6.15 in the second half.  Pretty sure Holt’s absence was in the first half.  

All this sounds like I’m down on Holt or don’t think he deserves any credit for the staff’s improvement.  That’s not the case.   I just don’t see him as the sole source of that improvement, and I don’t assign him magical powers.   And I have no idea what role, if any, he played in the decision to sign Gibson.  

 

I think the plan will be to set up the sinker more.  That’s one of his better pitches ‘stuff’-wise.  Increases GB, limits ISO.  Aided by plus IF defense.

[Just Regular]

5 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

If I could get, say, Walker and a decent bullpen arm for a combined $22 million AAV, I might do that instead of committing $20 million AAV to Bassitt.

Gibson is such Whole Foods oatmeal I agree it gives some breathing room to play games like this with the pitching market.

Heaney and Rogers are the non-Bassitt combo for me.    Last year:

Heaney - 110/19 in 72.2 IP

Rogers - 84/19 in 64.1 IP

Bassitt - 167/49 in 181.2 IP

You are 40 innings short if Heaney again can only pitch half a season, certainly possible.    Heaney at the TBR Eflin contract and Rogers at the BOS Chris Martin contract sum to about a 3/57 outlay (just 2 years for the reliever).

Some of this is watching even a very well honed master of his craft like Bassitt scuffle in October.    He's a great tool for the 162 game haul.

[Jim'sKid26]

Since none of us has ever coached at the Major league level, (at least that I know of) I think we should all admit that we have no idea what makes the O's successful at helping pitcher perform at a higher level. My suspicion is that it is multifactorial and rather nuanced. Giving Chris Holt all the credit may actually be a function of him being the name most of us on this board know. 

There have been guys who have not been as effective as others and they have made some decisions that are head scratchers. An example would be the handling of DL Hall late in the season. So not everything in the pitching development shop is coming up roses. But I think we all can say that they have had a good deal of success, with the performance of the bullpen being a good example. 

Gibson is clearly a more accomplished pitcher than Lyles. Getting him at a reasonable price and early in the FA season makes me think they targeted him as someone with a performance data set they like. I believe they are making analytic based decisions when it comes to player acquisitions. I know Tony likes to make fun of the process, (I assume rather tongue in cheek) but having a new pitching lab, installing all the cameras in all the stadiums throughout the system, and hiring analytics friendly coaches who understand how to translate the data into actionable changes in how guys pitch are all very positive moves. If Holt is the leader of the band, the music seems to be sounding better and better. To use this analogy, we just got a pretty good bass player. Now we need a lead guitarist. But the album producer is top notch.

[Daddy-O's]

56 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

I kind of figured he changed the process and players had some struggles through the change.   Fast forward, a few different players and a little more buy in and here we are.   But that's nothing more than gut feeling.  

And they moved the wall back 30 feet

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Daddy-O's said:

And they moved the wall back 30 feet

That was Holt’s idea!