Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Guilty as charged lol.

If I thought there was a realistic chance of us also adding 2 more starters that are better than the Lyles's and Gibson's of the world, I would actually be perfectly fine with it though.

But you’re against signing Rodon.  Go figure.  Would you sign Bassitt for 4/72?  
 

It seems you want to upgrade the staff but only if you like the contract terms.  So I ask again.  Who do you want and how much and how many years are you willing to go for that pitcher?

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pardon my saying so Froberto Duran, however I think Holt shepherding a group like he had in 2022 to a 102+ is wizard-esque.  

A 102+ would be pretty crappy if you had the Mets rotation.  I think if, in March of 2022, someone told us that we'd have a 102+ for the season given the type of talent we were headed into the season with, we'd all have been in disbelief.  

So what about the 105 we had in 2020 under Doug Brocail?

OK, it was only a 60 game season, and I doubt we would have sustained 105 all year.  But it sure wasn’t heading for 77, which is what Holt produced in 2021.   

Anyway, I don’t want to get too off course here.  I think Holt did a great job this year.  I just don’t think there’s a pitching coach alive who improves every pitcher he encounters.  If he can improve several of them without screwing up the others, he’s done a great job.  And I’m not going to expect miracles with Gibson, who’s not exactly some young impressionable pitcher who doesn’t know how to pitch yet.  Maybe Holt can help him at the margins.  He’s not suddenly going to be a vastly better pitcher than he’s been for the past decade.

And if I’m wrong about that, I’ll be very happy about it and I’ll own it.

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Frobby

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

But you’re against signing Rodon.  Go figure.  Would you sign Bassitt for 4/72?  
 

It seems you want to upgrade the staff but only if you like the contract terms.  So I ask again.  Who do you want and how much and how many years are you willing to go for that pitcher?

Speaking for myself, I'd take Rodon.  And I'd take Bassitt at 4/72, hopefully that 4th year is a club option though.

I don't really care that he's 33.  I'm too lazy to do this research but I think with analytics and advanced conditioning and medicine we're seeing pitchers have success into the mid and late 30s at a rate we've not really seen before.  I'm not sure how to quantify that but someone like Charlie Morton had a great year at age 37 and a fairly solid one at 38.  Verlander just won a Cy Young.  

 

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So what about the 105 we had in 2020 under Doug Brocail?

OK, it was only a 60 game season, and I doubt we would have sustained 105 all year.  But it sure wasn’t heading for 77, which is what Holt produced in 2021.   

Anyway, I don’t want to get too off course here.  I think Holt did a great job this year.  I just don’t think there’s a pitching coach alive who improves every pitcher he encounters.  If he can improve several of them without screwing up the others, he’s done a great job.  And I’m not going to expect miracles with Gibson, who’s not exactly some young impressionable pitcher who doesn’t know how to pitch yet.  Maybe Holt can help him at the margins.  He’s not suddenly going to be a vastly better pitcher than he’s been for the past decade.

And if I’m wrong about that, I’ll be very happy about it and I’ll own it.

 

I think we're too quick to give Holt all the credit.  Some of it has to go to Sig and the analytics team.  And these guys are probably going to places like Driveline in the offseason, too.  

You're right, there's not a pitching coach alive who improves everyone he comes across.  I wasn't going to argue that Gibson was going to be demonstrably better than he has been but if he can improve, like you said, at the margins, that's good.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Speaking for myself, I'd take Rodon.  And I'd take Bassitt at 4/72, hopefully that 4th year is a club option though.

I don't really care that he's 33.  I'm too lazy to do this research but I think with analytics and advanced conditioning and medicine we're seeing pitchers have success into the mid and late 30s at a rate we've not really seen before.  I'm not sure how to quantify that but someone like Charlie Morton had a great year at age 37 and a fairly solid one at 38.  Verlander just won a Cy Young.  

 

I think we're too quick to give Holt all the credit.  Some of it has to go to Sig and the analytics team.  And these guys are probably going to places like Driveline in the offseason, too.  

You're right, there's not a pitching coach alive who improves everyone he comes across.  I wasn't going to argue that Gibson was going to be demonstrably better than he has been but if he can improve, like you said, at the margins, that's good.  

Agreed on all the above.  By the way, I’ve wondered if sone of the improvement in 2022 had to do with assistant PC Darren Holmes spending the games in the dugout while Tim Cossins handled the bullpen duties during games.  Who the hell knows?   Let’s just hope the staff as a whole continues to improve more pitchers than they screw up.  

[Number5]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

IMO, this is a guy who would have probably been available when ST started.

I'm not so sure about that.  Shortly before the news of our having signed him came out, MLBTR posted an article that listed Gibson as a guy the Mets were looking into.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/latest-on-mets-search-for-starting-pitching.html

Gibson is a guy that has reliably taken the ball every five days in the majors for quite a while now, and I think that he has value in the eyes of a lot of teams.  Is he an ace?  Of course not, but I don't get the over-the-top angst some are displaying over this signing.  (Not you.)  I don't see Gibson being signed by a team in the off-season as a surprise at all.

If this is the top transaction of the off-season for the Orioles I would take issue, but at this stage we have no reason to believe that will be the case, IMO.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Speaking for myself, I'd take Rodon.  And I'd take Bassitt at 4/72, hopefully that 4th year is a club option though.

I don't really care that he's 33.  I'm too lazy to do this research but I think with analytics and advanced conditioning and medicine we're seeing pitchers have success into the mid and late 30s at a rate we've not really seen before.  I'm not sure how to quantify that but someone like Charlie Morton had a great year at age 37 and a fairly solid one at 38.  Verlander just won a Cy Young.  

 

I think we're too quick to give Holt all the credit.  Some of it has to go to Sig and the analytics team.  And these guys are probably going to places like Driveline in the offseason, too.  

You're right, there's not a pitching coach alive who improves everyone he comes across.  I wasn't going to argue that Gibson was going to be demonstrably better than he has been but if he can improve, like you said, at the margins, that's good.  

I think for a pitcher who really knows how to pitch, small decreases in velocity are not a big deal, vs. a pitcher who depends on throwing in the high 90's and throwing the ball past people.

 

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I'm not so sure about that.  Shortly before the news of our having signed him came out, MLBTR posted an article that listed Gibson as a guy the Mets were looking into.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/latest-on-mets-search-for-starting-pitching.html

Gibson is a guy that has reliably taken the ball every five days in the majors for quite a while now, and I think that he has value in the eyes of a lot of teams.  Is he an ace?  Of course not, but I don't get the over-the-top angst some are displaying over this signing.  (Not you.)  I don't see Gibson being signed by a team in the off-season as a surprise at all.

If this is the top transaction of the off-season for the Orioles I would take issue, but at this stage we have no reason to believe that will be the case, IMO.

Good points and that sums it up nicely.  Yeah, if this is the key rotation piece we sign in this offseason, it's not good.

He replaces Lyles which is fine.  

And yes, there's value in taking the ball every 5 days.  Didn't know the Mets were looking at him.

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agreed on all the above.  By the way, I’ve wondered if sone of the improvement in 2022 had to do with assistant PC Darren Holmes spending the games in the dugout while Tim Cossins handled the bullpen duties during games.  Who the hell knows?   Let’s just hope the staff as a whole continues to improve more pitchers than they screw up.  

All possibilities.  Maybe 2022 was a year where they got everything they wanted to do really dialed in, maybe they just got lucky and everyone regresses in 2023.  

It's going to be an interesting season, that's for sure.

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Has Gibson contract come out yet? Usually comes out soon after the announcement. 

Seen some random posts on twitter that it was a 1 year deal for around 5M, but I don't know the accuracy of those posts.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Guilty as charged lol.

If I thought there was a realistic chance of us also adding 2 more starters that are better than the Lyles's and Gibson's of the world, I would actually be perfectly fine with it though.

Gibson and Lyles should not be in the same category. One has double digits career WAR, the other has been below replacement level. 

As for two starters, we can still sign one, then trade for Burnes at the deadline. 

[owknows]

6 hours ago, deward said:

If you expect further growth out of the young arms, then why block them with mediocrities like Lyles and Gibson? Gibson had an ERA of 5.05 last year. Lyles ERA away from NuCamden was 5.25. I don't expect everyone to be Verlander, but I expect a team with playoff aspirations to aim for better than that, not settle for it so early in the off-season.

I thought I made it pretty clear that I wasn't interested in blocking emerging talent, and that I thought Lyles had value as a spot start/ injury insurance piece.

[Explosivo]

Dudes, Gibson is a steal at the value we got him for. We got a better lyles for half the cost. Amazing. Gibson had one of the worst defenses last year which explains his rough era. He’s a groundball pitcher and with our defense he is going to rebound tremendously. We aren’t done adding pieces and I am curious which direction we go but I highly doubt it’ll be Rodon.  He will just be too expensive. I think we play chicken a bit and let the market play out a bit and see which teams spend their major money first. Once the big chips fall, there will be less competition for some real potential starters. Anyway, Gibson is a steal yall. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Gibson and Lyles should not be in the same category. One has double digits career WAR, the other has been below replacement level. 

As for two starters, we can still sign one, then trade for Burnes at the deadline. 

Jordan Lyles 2022 is basically equivalent to career average Kyle Gibson.

ERA: 4.42 to 4.52

ERA+: 91 to 94

FIP: 4.40 to 4.29

WHIP: 1.39 to 1.39

 

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

But you’re against signing Rodon.  Go figure.  Would you sign Bassitt for 4/72?  
 

It seems you want to upgrade the staff but only if you like the contract terms.  So I ask again.  Who do you want and how much and how many years are you willing to go for that pitcher?

Rodon is almost as big of an injury risk as deGrom but will most likely require an even longer commitment than deGrom got from Texas, and that is a landmine that the Orioles cannot afford to step on.

And there are about a dozen reasonably decent mid-rotation SPs available in free agency or via trade that would be upgrades for us that won't require extremely large, extremely risky 5-7 year commitments like Rodon- Bassitt, Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Walker, Flexen, Taillon, Wacha, Quintana, etc.

 

[RZNJ]

 

 

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jordan Lyles 2022 is basically equivalent to career average Kyle Gibson.

ERA: 4.42 to 4.52

ERA+: 91 to 94

FIP: 4.40 to 4.29

WHIP: 1.39 to 1.39

 

Rodon is almost as big of an injury risk as deGrom but will most likely require an even longer commitment than deGrom got from Texas, and that is a landmine that the Orioles cannot afford to step on.

And there are about a dozen reasonably decent mid-rotation SPs available in free agency or via trade that would be upgrades for us that won't require extremely large, extremely risky 5-7 year commitments like Rodon- Bassitt, Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Walker, Flexen, Taillon, Wacha, Quintana, etc.

 

You're biggest complaint seemed to be that this was a sideways move from Lyles.  Rodon would be the biggest improvement. Now you seem to be saying you'd prefer less upside and less risk.  Assuming health it's hard to argue any of the pitchers you listed being as good as Rodon.  You prefer a lesser pitcher at lower money and years.  Ok.   

Are you ok with Bassitt at 4/72, 4/80?

I am trying to find out if there is a point where you say it's too much money and risk for the tier 2 and tier 3 pitchers and it's been difficult to get an answer.

[Explosivo]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

 

You're biggest complaint seemed to be that this was a sideways move from Lyles.  Rodon would be the biggest improvement. Now you seem to be saying you'd prefer less upside and less risk.  Assuming health it's hard to argue any of the pitchers you listed being as good as Rodon.  You prefer a lesser pitcher at lower money and years.  Ok.   

Are you ok with Bassitt at 4/72, 4/80?

I am trying to find out if there is a point where you say it's too much money and risk for the tier 2 and tier 3 pitchers and it's been difficult to get an answer.

4 years for basitt is basically untenable. It’s a non starter. Locks you in on a pitcher for 1-2 years of quality and a likely drop off in quality after. No need to do that. We need short deals. Honestly, the big boys going off the board will help us. Rodon and Verlander will likely be signed before we do anything. Eovaldi would be an interesting get and the QO would also drive his price and the market for his talents down. With our drafting and our farm system we can risk losing a pick especially since we will likely make that up with either Grayson or Gunnar as rookies of the year. It’d be an interesting gamble and he’s younger than the rest.