Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[geschinger]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is mostly a strawman. The team has a bottom 2 payroll and could easily add a few mid-tier free agents that would improve their near-term chances of competing without hurting the long-term plan at all. 

 

All for that if that is possible - i.e. it not taking contracts into 2026 and beyond to sign them as bad contracts absolutely hurt the long term plan.  

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

You are saying you want them to go big in FA which is blowing up the plan for long term success.  Saddling the team with long term contracts where the back end is almost certainly going to be wasted money is inconsistent with and would be abandoning that approach.

What you are saying is you don't believe that phase two of the approach that worked so well for the reigning world champions cannot work in Baltimore.  What evidence is there that it will not work and that we should abandon that approach?  

2 free agents (the type we need costs about 55 million give or take). The organization is worth I believe in the neighborhood of 2 billion+. If 55 million will hamstring them to that degree than I think there is something seriously wrong with how the org is doing business given the economic realities that Instated. Furthermore, the team makes at least 200 million every year in profit. So again, I ask, how is 55-60 million holding them up? That amount shouldn’t “saddle them” with anything but a chance to serious supplement their current talent and compete for a pennant.

No I don’t believe that the Houston Astros model is easy to duplicate. And I absolutely hate the idea of being too dogmatic to any approach.

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We're going to have to agree to disagree which is fine.

IMO we were headed in a wonderful direction until this last week's nightmare. Now, I'm nowhere near as confident.

I'm sure you looked around this site today. Have you checked out Orioles Twitter or Facebook? Not too many fans are signing the orgs praises like you after this free agency fiasco. You have found a way to block out the orgs ugly history or being a disaster for much of the last 30 years and I commend you for that!

However, to much of the fanbase I believe they were cautiously optimistic that we had turned a corner. But with this debacle, I'm not sure how many will still share that point of view.

 

I'm not seeing a huge disaster. Here is the MLB free agent pitcher list as it currently stands, ranked by 2021-21 WAR. Kershaw, DeGrom, and Verlander were never going to sign with us. They also cost a ton of money. Rodon, Eovaldi, and Bassit are still out there. We got the #8 guy on this list on a one year deal. 

Do yourself a favor, and pay no attention to Orioles fanbase Twitter. 

STARTING PITCHERS

Carlos Rodón (30 years old, 11.1 WAR)
Clayton Kershaw (35, 7.2) -- Signed 1-year deal with LAD (Dec. 5)
Jacob deGrom (35, 7.1) -- Signed 5-year deal with TEX (Dec. 2)
Nathan Eovaldi (33, 6.7)
Chris Bassitt (34, 6.3)
Tyler Anderson (33, 6.1) -- Signed 3-year deal with LAA (Nov. 16)
Justin Verlander (40, 6.1) -- Signed 2-year deal with NYM (Dec. 7)
Kyle Gibson (34, 4.8) -- Signed 1-year deal with BAL (Dec. 5)
Corey Kluber (37, 4.5)
Martín Pérez (31, 4.5) -- Accepted QO from TEX (Nov. 15)
Sean Manaea (31, 4.4)
José Quintana (33, 4.3) -- Reported 2-year deal with NYM
Jameson Taillon (31, 4.2) -- Reported 4-year deal with CHC
Taijuan Walker (29, 3.9) -- Reported 4-year deal with PHI
Wade Miley (36, 3.5)
Zach Eflin (29, 3.5) -- Reported 3-year deal with TB
Rich Hill (42, 3.4)
Ross Stripling (33, 3.4)
Zack Greinke (38, 3.1)
Michael Wacha (30, 2.6)
Andrew Heaney (31, 2.2) -- Reported 2-year deal with TEX
Noah Syndergaard (30, 2.2)
Mike Minor (35, 1.9)
Trevor Williams (30, 1.8)
Jordan Lyles (31, 1.6)
Drew Smyly (33, 1.6)
Erick Fedde (30, 1.6)
Matthew Boyd (32, 1.5) -- Reported 1-year deal with DET
Joe Ross (29, 1.4)
Michael Lorenzen (31, 1.3)
Ryan Yarbrough (31, 1.3)
José Ureña (31, 1.1) -- Signed 1-year deal with COL (Nov. 11)
Michael Pineda (33, 0.9)
Dylan Bundy (29, 0.7)
Chris Archer (33, 0.7)
Aaron Sanchez (30, 0.6)
Carlos Martinez (30, 0.6)
Zach Davies (30, 0.5)
Mike Clevinger (32, 0.4) -- Signed 1-year deal with CWS (Dec. 4)
Chad Kuhl (29, 0.4)
Dallas Keuchel (35, 0.3)
Chase Anderson (35, -0.2)
Mike Foltynewicz (30, -0.7)
Kohei Arihara (30, -0.9)

[geschinger]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They need to improve the team..a lot. How they do it can be debated. I don’t want them to sign stupid deals either.  However, I don’t want them to do nothing and act like they can’t be really good right now.

Of the FA deals signed so far Quintana is the only one I would have been okay with.  If they do nothing I'll be disappointed as well but I'm confident that they will improve the team before Spring Training.  And as i've said on a previous thread - I think the absolute best place to use payroll flexibility will to be buyers at the deadline this year.  In a perfect world we given a bunch of our prospects a lot of ABs to where we have an idea who we can count on and who is expendable and we use assets and payroll flexibility to improve. I think the opprtunity for value then dwarfs the opportunity now in an overheated FA market. 

[orioles119]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Do yourself a favor, and pay no attention to Orioles fanbase Twitter. 

 

How about Twitter in general?

[geschinger]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

2 free agents (the type we need costs about 55 million give or take). The organization is worth I believe in the neighborhood of 2 billion+. If 55 million will hamstring them to that degree than I think there is something seriously wrong with how the org is doing business given the economic realities that Instated. Furthermore, the team makes at least 200 million every year in profit. So again, I ask, how is 55-60 million holding them up? That amount shouldn’t “saddle them” with anything but a chance to serious supplement their current talent and compete for a pennant.

No I don’t believe that the Houston Astros model is easy to duplicate. And I absolutely hate the idea of being too dogmatic to any approach.

Again, if it's 55m for a year or two without that coming with a commitment of 55m in 2026 and beyond that should be doable.  But tell me how you would spend that to improve in 2023 without sticking the team with those contracts in 2026 and beyond?

The Orioles are never going to spend like the the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The most likely optimistic scenario is that there spending will be somewhere in the neighbrohood of 15th highest payroll occasinly spiking to ~10th or so.  $55m in bad contracts in 2026 and beyond makes it incredibly difficult to extend homegrown talen and still build out a competetive roster with a payroll in the 10-15 range.

I don't think the Astros model is easy - several teams have tried and failed.  But again, Elias was part of an implementation that brought him a ring and he's done phase 1 successfully a second time.  Why shouldn't they let him continue with phase 2 instead of abandoning that approach.  

[geschinger]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, this isn’t really true. If the Os signed Correa tomorrow and the last 3 years was 100M down the drain, they can still easily contend with that issue.

It may make things harder but it’s not like their whole plan blows up in their faces over one bad deal.
 

I disagree.  Assuming there isn't some major increase in revenues (which seems unlikely with the slow demise of RSNs) having ~20-25% of payroll lost to a bad contract is not something the Orioles or anyone else can easily contend with. 

[jrobb21613]

Elias has done great job so far! I believe the comments he made about expanding payroll etc he believed to be true and that’s what he would like to do. He knows with the way this roster is currently constructed with young talent that we’re only couple of pieces away from WS contenders. It’s clear to me he is being handcuffed by ownership who have plans to sell the team and do not want to add any major liabilities. Therefore we are stuck to short term contracts shopping in the bargain basement until Peter dies and the brothers sell the team. 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Hamels hasn’t been an effective pitcher since 2019 and he’s going to be 39 years old. I don’t mind if they take a flier on him, but not if he’s being pitched as being in the starting rotation opening day.

You need more than five starters these days and Hamels could be a guy that contributes in 2023, but he’s a long shot and not a sure thing by any measure. 

Remember we are shopping in the bargain bin. That seems to be king for the Orioles.

[Bemorewins]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not seeing a huge disaster. Here is the MLB free agent pitcher list as it currently stands, ranked by 2021-21 WAR. Kershaw, DeGrom, and Verlander were never going to sign with us. They also cost a ton of money. Rodon, Eovaldi, and Bassit are still out there. We got the #8 guy on this list on a one year deal. 

Do yourself a favor, and pay no attention to Orioles fanbase Twitter. 

STARTING PITCHERS

Carlos Rodón (30 years old, 11.1 WAR)
Clayton Kershaw (35, 7.2) -- Signed 1-year deal with LAD (Dec. 5)
Jacob deGrom (35, 7.1) -- Signed 5-year deal with TEX (Dec. 2)
Nathan Eovaldi (33, 6.7)
Chris Bassitt (34, 6.3)
Tyler Anderson (33, 6.1) -- Signed 3-year deal with LAA (Nov. 16)
Justin Verlander (40, 6.1) -- Signed 2-year deal with NYM (Dec. 7)
Kyle Gibson (34, 4.8) -- Signed 1-year deal with BAL (Dec. 5)
Corey Kluber (37, 4.5)
Martín Pérez (31, 4.5) -- Accepted QO from TEX (Nov. 15)
Sean Manaea (31, 4.4)
José Quintana (33, 4.3) -- Reported 2-year deal with NYM
Jameson Taillon (31, 4.2) -- Reported 4-year deal with CHC
Taijuan Walker (29, 3.9) -- Reported 4-year deal with PHI
Wade Miley (36, 3.5)
Zach Eflin (29, 3.5) -- Reported 3-year deal with TB
Rich Hill (42, 3.4)
Ross Stripling (33, 3.4)
Zack Greinke (38, 3.1)
Michael Wacha (30, 2.6)
Andrew Heaney (31, 2.2) -- Reported 2-year deal with TEX
Noah Syndergaard (30, 2.2)
Mike Minor (35, 1.9)
Trevor Williams (30, 1.8)
Jordan Lyles (31, 1.6)
Drew Smyly (33, 1.6)
Erick Fedde (30, 1.6)
Matthew Boyd (32, 1.5) -- Reported 1-year deal with DET
Joe Ross (29, 1.4)
Michael Lorenzen (31, 1.3)
Ryan Yarbrough (31, 1.3)
José Ureña (31, 1.1) -- Signed 1-year deal with COL (Nov. 11)
Michael Pineda (33, 0.9)
Dylan Bundy (29, 0.7)
Chris Archer (33, 0.7)
Aaron Sanchez (30, 0.6)
Carlos Martinez (30, 0.6)
Zach Davies (30, 0.5)
Mike Clevinger (32, 0.4) -- Signed 1-year deal with CWS (Dec. 4)
Chad Kuhl (29, 0.4)
Dallas Keuchel (35, 0.3)
Chase Anderson (35, -0.2)
Mike Foltynewicz (30, -0.7)
Kohei Arihara (30, -0.9)

Do you work for the Orioles? Because apparently that’s what they are doing, paying no attention to their own fans; never have and probably never will.

But their is a tremendous cost to pay when you do that. It’s called alienation, insulation, and a lack of relevancy.

They may be able to win some doing things the way you suggests, but ultimately will it matter? You know that whole not paying attention thing can work both ways?

I was born and grew up in this community and came back (by choice) after being gone for many years; having the Orioles operate in a silo is not a good thing at all to me. I’ve seen the cost and heard many stories about people who have lost interest. When people become apathetic, it’s extremely difficult to recapture their interest. 

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

2 free agents (the type we need costs about 55 million give or take). The organization is worth I believe in the neighborhood of 2 billion+. If 55 million will hamstring them to that degree than I think there is something seriously wrong with how the org is doing business given the economic realities that Instated. Furthermore, the team makes at least 200 million every year in profit. So again, I ask, how is 55-60 million holding them up? That amount shouldn’t “saddle them” with anything but a chance to serious supplement their current talent and compete for a pennant.

No I don’t believe that the Houston Astros model is easy to duplicate. And I absolutely hate the idea of being too dogmatic to any approach.

This year it will be approximately 275 million plus a 1 time $30 million dollar payout from the Disney deal.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not seeing a huge disaster. Here is the MLB free agent pitcher list as it currently stands, ranked by 2021-21 WAR. Kershaw, DeGrom, and Verlander were never going to sign with us. They also cost a ton of money. Rodon, Eovaldi, and Bassit are still out there. We got the #8 guy on this list on a one year deal. 

Do yourself a favor, and pay no attention to Orioles fanbase Twitter. 

STARTING PITCHERS

Carlos Rodón (30 years old, 11.1 WAR)
Clayton Kershaw (35, 7.2) -- Signed 1-year deal with LAD (Dec. 5)
Jacob deGrom (35, 7.1) -- Signed 5-year deal with TEX (Dec. 2)
Nathan Eovaldi (33, 6.7)
Chris Bassitt (34, 6.3)
Tyler Anderson (33, 6.1) -- Signed 3-year deal with LAA (Nov. 16)
Justin Verlander (40, 6.1) -- Signed 2-year deal with NYM (Dec. 7)
Kyle Gibson (34, 4.8) -- Signed 1-year deal with BAL (Dec. 5)
Corey Kluber (37, 4.5)
Martín Pérez (31, 4.5) -- Accepted QO from TEX (Nov. 15)
Sean Manaea (31, 4.4)
José Quintana (33, 4.3) -- Reported 2-year deal with NYM
Jameson Taillon (31, 4.2) -- Reported 4-year deal with CHC
Taijuan Walker (29, 3.9) -- Reported 4-year deal with PHI
Wade Miley (36, 3.5)
Zach Eflin (29, 3.5) -- Reported 3-year deal with TB
Rich Hill (42, 3.4)
Ross Stripling (33, 3.4)
Zack Greinke (38, 3.1)
Michael Wacha (30, 2.6)
Andrew Heaney (31, 2.2) -- Reported 2-year deal with TEX
Noah Syndergaard (30, 2.2)
Mike Minor (35, 1.9)
Trevor Williams (30, 1.8)
Jordan Lyles (31, 1.6)
Drew Smyly (33, 1.6)
Erick Fedde (30, 1.6)
Matthew Boyd (32, 1.5) -- Reported 1-year deal with DET
Joe Ross (29, 1.4)
Michael Lorenzen (31, 1.3)
Ryan Yarbrough (31, 1.3)
José Ureña (31, 1.1) -- Signed 1-year deal with COL (Nov. 11)
Michael Pineda (33, 0.9)
Dylan Bundy (29, 0.7)
Chris Archer (33, 0.7)
Aaron Sanchez (30, 0.6)
Carlos Martinez (30, 0.6)
Zach Davies (30, 0.5)
Mike Clevinger (32, 0.4) -- Signed 1-year deal with CWS (Dec. 4)
Chad Kuhl (29, 0.4)
Dallas Keuchel (35, 0.3)
Chase Anderson (35, -0.2)
Mike Foltynewicz (30, -0.7)
Kohei Arihara (30, -0.9)

 

LOL … #8 guy based on what? Gibson who career is worth 14.1 WAR. This past season per baseball reference he was worth .7 WAR. He should be down in the Dillon Bundy range. Where are these numbers coming from??? Lyles was worth 1WAR and is -1.2 for his career. Gibson is a Dumpster signing and is only available on a 1 year deal $10 million because he’s not good. 
 

You guys crack me up! This was another penny pinching move to say they tried. Casting a wide net and talking to everybody, what a joke. I’d imagine I can take off today and visit a Lexus, Mercedes, Land Rover, Porsche, Lambro, Ferrari, Audi dealer etc….look at sports cars that are $80,000 or more that I have no intention to buy. It will waste a lot of peoples time including mine. Then stop by the local Kia and dealer and buy a cheap $25,000 car that I really don’t want but the assigned budget fits (BTW, I don’t like KIA).

Saddled by bad contracts stink ….but the available revenue moving forward is in the $250 plus range annually. We can certainly afford to have a contract or two on the books.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This year it will be approximately 275 million plus a 1 time $30 million dollar payout from the Disney deal.

Over 300 million and we can't spend 50-70? 

As long as people/fans are good with this, the org will continue to operate in this horrible manner.

I don't understand (and probably never will) the fan perspective that advocates the team to go cheap on every deal and not spend any significant money, almost operating like it's your personal finance. We gain NOTHING when the team doesn't spend. They don't give us a discount on tix or merch. They don't hold on to it and spend it later. They simply pocket the profits. Why would the regular, common, everyday working person be that passionate and invested in billionaires making a few more millions? Again, we gain NOTHING when the club operates this way.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Bemorewins

[Roll Tide]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Over 300 million and we can't spend 50-70? 

As long as people/fans are good with this, the org will continue to operate in this horrible manner.

I don't understand (and probably never will) the fan perspective that advocates the team to go cheap on every deal and not spend any significant money, almost operating like it's your personal finance. We gain NOTHING when the team doesn't spend. They don't give us a discount on tix or merch. They don't hold on to it and spend it later. They simply pocket the profits. Why would the regular, common, everyday working person be that passionate and infested in billionaires making a few more millions? Again, we gain NOTHING when the club operates this way.

Yep …. I feel great paying $14 for a beer every few innings knowing they are just stuffing most of the money in the Angelos family safe. In the $20 range for a cold hamburger and fries. The food is cheap, terrible, and almost always cold. 

I enjoyed watching the Orioles this year. I went to around 10 games. But, Will not go this coming year if this keeps up. I can stay home and watch it on my big screen and eat good hot food or a watering hole where at least I’ll be getting good hot food that’s overpriced. And the beers won’t be nearly that much.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yep …. I feel great paying $14 for a beer every few innings knowing they are just stuffing most of the money in the Angelos family safe. In the $20 range for a cold hamburger and fries. The food is cheap, terrible, and almost always cold. 

I enjoyed watching the Orioles this year. I went to around 10 games. But, Will not go this coming year if this keeps up. I can stay home and watch it on my big screen and eat good hot food or a watering hole where at least I’ll be getting good hot food that’s overpriced. And the beers won’t be nearly that much.

The bolded statement I couldn't agree with more. My fear is that there are going to be a lot of fans who feel similarly.

The problem with treating fans like they are dumb in the modern age is that we have something called the internet where we can obtain information to find out things like the Orioles pocketing over 200 million in this one season alone.

I went to several games myself last year and enjoyed like you. But it is impossible with this type of spitting in the face action from ownership/management for me to support spending ANY money next year on this (and really in the foreseeable future).