Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

According to Fangraphs, in his last 4 full seasons, Gibson was worth 2.6 (2018), 2.6 (2019), 3.0 (2021), and 1.8 (2022).

According to BR he was 3.5 (2018), .3 (2019), 3.5 (2021, and .7 (2022)

 

We can play with numbers and make them slant towards what we want them to say.    According to Fangraphs he's been a pretty consistent 2-3 win pitcher.    According to BREF he's been wildly inconsistent with two 3 WIN years and 2 below 1.    If I wanted to pump up Gibson, I'd certainly say he's capable of a 3 win year when looking at either system of counting.

You said Gibson's numbers were aided by his 2021 which was "an outlier".   That's playing with numbers.    How is 2021 an outlier when he had a 3.5 season in 2018 as well?   That's just BREF.   According to Fangraphs, he came close to his 2021 season in both 2018 and 2019.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You said Gibson's numbers were aided by his 2021 which was "an outlier".   That's playing with numbers.    How is 2021 an outlier when he had a 3.5 season in 2018 as well?   That's just BREF.   According to Fangraphs, he came close to his 2021 season in both 2018 and 2019.

Because 2018 is utterly irrelevant to his 2021/2022 total, which is what was being discussed.

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Because 2018 is utterly irrelevant to his 2021/2022 total, which is what was being discussed.

Haha. It's impossible to have an outlier when you're only comparing two years.  Lol

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha. It's impossible to have an outlier when you're only comparing two years.  Lol

Well, it’s not unfair to say you don’t look at 4 years ago for a 35 year old.

I think the last 2 years are the most relevant. 

If we were to set the O/U for his ErA at 4.25 and his IP at 150.5, what are you taking?

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Haha. It's impossible to have an outlier when you're only comparing two years.  Lol

Looking over his career, 2018 is also a pretty extreme outlier. He's posted an ERA+ of 94 or less in all but 3 years of his 10 year career, and only 2 years above 106- 2018 and 2021, at 118 and 117 respectively.

So yeah, definitely outliers. 

[crawjo]

The market this offseason seems pretty crazy. Knowing that the Orioles aren't going to be the Padres and just raise payroll to $250 million or whatever, I would look for short-term deals that have some value. Giving Carlos Rodon or whoever 7 years would be a mistake. This operates under the assumption that a massive deal for Rodon would prevent us from signing a massive deal down the line. Assuming payroll is a finite resource, I'm not breaking the bank for any of the available free agents. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s not unfair to say you don’t look at 4 years ago for a 35 year old.

I think the last 2 years are the most relevant. 

If we were to set the O/U for his ErA at 4.25 and his IP at 150.5, what are you taking?

 

I’ll take the over on the innings and the ERA.  

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Looking over his career, 2018 is also a pretty extreme outlier. He's posted an ERA+ of 94 or less in all but 3 years of his 10 year career, and only 2 years above 106- 2018 and 2021, at 118 and 117 respectively.

So yeah, definitely outliers. 

Got it. So two of his last 4 full years are outliers.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Got it. So two of his last 4 full years are outliers.

If that is how you would like to frame it, sure.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’ll take the over on the innings and the ERA.  

So you are basically thinking he gives us what Lyles did in 2022?

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So you are basically thinking he gives us what Lyles did in 2022?

I’m certainly not going to bet on much better than what Lyles did.  He’s shown as recently as 2021 he’s capable of better.  

[wildcard]

Orioles think he  will be better than Lyles or they would have signed Lyles instead.

[Just Regular]

10 hours ago, crawjo said:

The market this offseason seems pretty crazy. Knowing that the Orioles aren't going to be the Padres and just raise payroll to $250 million or whatever, I would look for short-term deals that have some value. Giving Carlos Rodon or whoever 7 years would be a mistake. This operates under the assumption that a massive deal for Rodon would prevent us from signing a massive deal down the line. Assuming payroll is a finite resource, I'm not breaking the bank for any of the available free agents. 

Yea, I wonder about the opportunity cost of winning a Senga or Bassitt bid from here.

The key Astroball acquisitions weren't just for short-term pitchers, they were for awesome pitchers.     Senga and Bassitt are very good but shy of that.

I won't loathe it if we slip some down the Manaea-Stripling-Kluber quality list if the trade off is not committing a $20mm salary slot four years hence.    If you can't spend as much on SP as you intended efficiently, you can redistribute some to a reliever, better bat, or diamond plating the force plates at the Bel Air pitching lab.

I do take it as a given if the team is competitive the true acid test for the #1 farm system and Elias organizing the shape of his assets is in July.    I don't know whose team is going to bust out of Ohtani's team, Burnes/Woodruff's team, Lynn/Giolito/Cease's team or Miami again but somebody or several somebody's teams will.     I don't think four months of something like the Bassitt-Kluber delta will make or break Adley's team.

If we land some awesome pitcher for 0.5 or 1.5 years this summer and hope for more than the rental, needing $65mm for say your Mullins, Bassitt and Woodruff in 2025 is a lot as Adley and Gunnar start pulling in bigger chunks.    You might have to non-tender Mountcastle or Hays.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Just Regular

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Got it. So two of his last 4 full years are outliers.

I think he’s probably closer to the guy he’s been the last 2 years than everything previous. Maybe somewhere around the average of the two? That would be good for us versus number close to last season. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

Orioles think he  will be better than Lyles or they would have signed Lyles instead.

Of course..but the odds are that he won’t. He only 3 seasons in his ML career better (ERA wise) than what Lyles did in 2022 and he had 1 other season that was basically the exact same.

Other than that, it’s been far worse.