Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[mall-O-cup]

14 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

...or this.

I think I may have missed something.

Did we just sign Fozzie Bear?!

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

To be clear, I’m talking about the peons in the baseball ops side..not Sig, Elias, etc…(although this signing makes me wonder wtf they are looking at)

And those kids may know stats but there is a difference between understanding stats and math and understanding baseball stats, what they mean and how you apply them. 
 

 

My take on this signing was that it kinda feels like Elias being mesmerized by the lore and legend of his own advocacy of analytics.

Basically signing a guy who is overtly a challenge, just for the chance to prove how clever he is.

And doing so at the expense of an already emerging middle-infield high-talent logjam, that we've suffered 5 years waiting to see play.

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Any GM playing 8M for 1 WAR should be fired.

That is absurd. Even for a small market $8M is a small amount of money. GM's make minor moves like this to plug a hole all the time. $150M for negative WAR is what gets you fired. 

It appears Elias's strategy this season is to play the upper end of the 1 year contract market and it may be coming from ownership rather than Elias. In which case he is just doing what they want. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To be clear, I’m talking about the peons in the baseball ops side..not Sig, Elias, etc…(although this signing makes me wonder wtf they are looking at)

And those kids may know stats but there is a difference between understanding stats and math and understanding baseball stats, what they mean and how you apply them. 
 

 

This decision, even if it started with the peons, went through the upper levels.   I don't think Elias or Sig signs off on this deal without a pretty thorough review of their own.   Even if some peon has a statistical reason for this move, they have to talk someone higher up the food chain into why it all makes sense.

I think there is a greater chance that this decision was not made as much on the statistical level (which might be scary and a mistake) but more on the human level.   Frazier seems to be highly regarded by baseball people.   Fans of the teams he's played for seem to really like him as well.    The thing that scares me the most is the combination of last year's stats and the significant drop in his sprint speed from 2021 to 2022.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

That is absurd. Even for a small market $8M is a small amount of money. GM's make minor moves like this to plug a hole all the time. $150M for negative WAR is what gets you fired. 

It appears Elias's strategy this season is to play the upper end of the 1 year contract market and it may be coming from ownership rather than Elias. In which case he is just doing what they want. 

I'd buy that explanation for pitching.

But he already has better internal choices for position players than this.

No need to spend at all.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

My take on this signing was that it kinda feels like Elias being mesmerized by the lore and legend of his own advocacy of analytics.

Basically signing a guy who is overtly a challenge, just for the chance to prove how clever he is.

And doing so at the expense of an already emerging middle-infield high-talent logjam, that we've suffered 5 years waiting to see play.

So it's either Elias isn't exactly an idiot, but the people he hires and allows to influence his decisions are idiots, and not just idiots but they don't even watch baseball,

OR

Elias is being driven by pathological urges to make bad moves so he can will them into good moves and thus prove to his absentee father that he really is a big-brained genius.

Could be.  Could be.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That is absurd. Even for a small market $8M is a small amount of money. GM's make minor moves like this to plug a hole all the time. $150M for negative WAR is what gets you fired. 

It appears Elias's strategy this season is to play the upper end of the 1 year contract market and it may be coming from ownership rather than Elias. In which case he is just doing what they want. 

It’s not absurd. Absurd is thinking it’s wise to pay 8M for 1 WAr. 1 WAR players aren’t hard to find. You should be able to produce those guys for nothing.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, owknows said:

I'd buy that explanation for pitching.

But he already has better internal choices for position players than this.

No need to spend at all.

Right.  The cynic is me says they are just spending so the payroll passes the "not tanking" thresshold.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  The cynic is me says they are just spending so the payroll passes the "not tanking" thresshold.

I'm pretty sure there is a threshold you need to exceed to get your full cut of the revenue sharing...

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To be clear, I’m talking about the peons in the baseball ops side..not Sig, Elias, etc…(although this signing makes me wonder wtf they are looking at)

And those kids may know stats but there is a difference between understanding stats and math and understanding baseball stats, what they mean and how you apply them 

I’d guess that most or all of the people in the analytics department know and really love baseball.  The reason I say that is that most people who have those skill sets are in very high demand in the financial sector and other industries, and could make much more money in those jobs than they can make working for a Major League Baseball team.  The only reason for them to work in baseball is love of the sport.  

[Slight Upward Arc]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I have read and seen the job descriptions, what they are looking for in candidates and stuff like that.

I have a basis for what I’m saying. 
 

 

He wants to have his movie one day. He’d rather win in his unique groundbreaking way, with his model, then step up and go for it right now, which is, you know, the way many other teams have actually won World Series. But to Mike, a World Series isn’t worth it if they lose 10 more games the following year. 

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'd buy that explanation for pitching.

But he already has better internal choices for position players than this.

No need to spend at all.

We all agree that with the current roster on the face of it the move makes little sense. I was responding to the general statement that a GM should be fired for spending $8M on a 1 WAR player. (I also happen to think they are projecting something more like 2 WAR based on his career stats). 

[owknows]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

We all agree that with the current roster on the face of it the move makes little sense. I was responding to the general statement that a GM should be fired for spending $8M on a 1 WAR player. (I also happen to think they are projecting something more like 2 WAR based on his career stats). 

Agreed.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Slight Upward Arc said:

He wants to have his movie one day. He’d rather win in his unique groundbreaking way, with his model, then step up and go for it right now, which is, you know, the way many other teams have actually won World Series. But to Mike, a World Series isn’t worth it if they lose 10 more games the following year. 

You seem to know Mike really well.

[owknows]

15 minutes ago, Pickles said:

OR

Elias is being driven by pathological urges to make bad moves so he can will them into good moves and thus prove to his absentee father that he really is a big-brained genius.

Could be.  Could be.

 

We all have egos.

I thought the Brett Phillips thing, This Signing, and maybe to a lesser extent Aguilar and sticking with Odor were all counter-productive moves driven by assigning more value to analytical nuance than to common sense.

That doesn't mean I think Elias is a pathological moron.

It means I think he's potentially subject to the same human failings as the rest of us, and will therefore make some good decisions, and some bad ones.