Maybe Frazier can play

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think they think he's a good bounce-back candidate.   I don't think there is a computer algorithm that dictated this move.

I think the SigBot incorporates a ton of variables.  I think the SigBot can project a ton of inputs by scouts/Savant/etc. for current players and FAs.  Then ranks the FAs based on game models.  Then it's a matter of assigning a dollar value to the projections for each FA.  All of those things are done on the interwebs.  He could even then run simulations to predict which FA contracts would be the best team build.  

I think that's why they are more risk averse and see Frazier as a worthy investment.  They aren't sure how to project rookie risk better than historic trends for second/third tier guys transitioning to the majors.  

 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think the SigBot incorporates a ton of variables.  I think the SigBot can project a ton of inputs by scouts/Savant/etc. for current players and FAs.  Then ranks the FAs based on game models.  Then it's a matter of assigning a dollar value to the projections for each FA.  All of those things are done on the interwebs.  He could even then run simulations to predict which FA contracts would be the best team build.  

I think that's why they are more risk averse and see Frazier as a worthy investment.  They aren't sure how to project rookie risk better than historic trends for second/third tier guys transitioning to the majors.  

 

I certainly believe they use computer generated analysis a great deal.   I don't think every move is dictated 100% by that analysis and I think some moves are made on the old "Frazier has been a good player before 2022 and everyone he's played with and for has great things to say about him' type of information.

I am skeptical that there is much information besides his age (31) that points to a bounce back season this year.   I think it's more of a gut/baseball feeling that Frazier didn't all of a sudden lose it at 30 years of age.

[sportsfan8703]

Some factors,

1. Urias end of season Knee Injury

2. Good defense 

3. Good OBP skills

4. No shift should help is BABIP and BA

5. One of the only true 2B on the market

6. Was willing to accept our deal 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Some factors,

1. Urias end of season Knee Injury

2. Good defense 

3. Good OBP skills

4. No shift should help is BABIP and BA

5. One of the only true 2B on the market

6. Was willing to accept our deal 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-frazier/15223/spray-charts?position=2B/OF&type=battedball

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Some factors,

1. Urias end of season Knee Injury

2. Good defense 

3. Good OBP skills

4. No shift should help is BABIP and BA

5. One of the only true 2B on the market

6. Was willing to accept our deal 

1. Not a factor. Urias isn’t inured now. Also you don’t pay 8M for a just in case. 
2. Was below average at 2B last year. 
3. So is Westburg and Vavra.

4. Was anyone actually shifting against him last year?

5. We have many in house options  

6. Players go to teams who offer competitive contracts  

 

[ChuckS]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-frazier/15223/spray-charts?position=2B/OF&type=battedball

Fly balls looks spread out. 

Ground balls and line drives, a little more skewed to the right side.  That's what it looks like to me anyway. 

Maybe the shift being eliminated helps him a little bit.  I don't see him hitting any more home runs in Camden though.  Someone mentioned in another thread (or maybe it was this one) that they could see his power numbers going up playing in Baltimore. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by ChuckS

[Moose Milligan]

Dead cat bounce. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Fly balls looks spread out. 

Ground balls and line drives, a little more skewed to the right side.  That's what it looks like to me anyway. 

Maybe the shift being eliminated helps him a little bit.  I don't see him hitting any more home runs in Camden though.  Someone mentioned in another thread (or maybe it was this one) that they could see his power numbers going up playing in Baltimore. 

Sure, a little.

Enough to make difference?

They can still shift, just not to the extent they could before.

He's not a pull guy.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I think the SigBot incorporates a ton of variables.  I think the SigBot can project a ton of inputs by scouts/Savant/etc. for current players and FAs.  Then ranks the FAs based on game models.  Then it's a matter of assigning a dollar value to the projections for each FA.  All of those things are done on the interwebs.  He could even then run simulations to predict which FA contracts would be the best team build.  

I think that's why they are more risk averse and see Frazier as a worthy investment.  They aren't sure how to project rookie risk better than historic trends for second/third tier guys transitioning to the majors.  

 

With just a few hundred BIP they can factor the wOBACON of all players in the league with just EV, avg. EV, attack angle and smash factor.  They can also project all the players in the league’s wOBACON next year using age & historical data points.  
 

They have a very clear idea of how hard and how often Frazier is going to put the ball in play and they like him over their other options.  It’s that simple.  

[Moose Milligan]

Frazier’s number is 12. Last worn by…

 

 

……….Rougned Odor last year.  
 

Hopefully whatever Chris Davis stank was left on 19 has been disinfected from 19 for Irwin.

 

[RZNJ]

13 hours ago, waroriole said:

1. Not a factor. Urias isn’t inured now. Also you don’t pay 8M for a just in case. 
2. Was below average at 2B last year. 
3. So is Westburg and Vavra.

4. Was anyone actually shifting against him last year?

5. We have many in house options  

6. Players go to teams who offer competitive contracts  

 

#2. His DRS was -1 and QAA was 6 so his defense was not below average unless you totally disregard QAA.

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Westburg and Vavra shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence.

How about, “Westburg is a much better prospect than another guy.   The other guy is Vavra.”   Is that okay?

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How about, “Westburg is a much better prospect than another guy.   The other guy is Vavra.”   Is that okay?

Yes. That’s 2 sentences!  

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes. That’s 2 sentences!  

I know.  But i thought maybe separate paragraphs would be required.  

[foxfield]

On 2/2/2023 at 4:59 PM, RZNJ said:

I think they think he's a good bounce-back candidate.   I don't think there is a computer algorithm that dictated this move.