Pecota has the Orioles with only a 3% chance to make the playoffs

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s why I don’t like them. Literally anyone can come up with them. They mean nothing. 

I don’t think literally anybody could come up with one.  But at the end of the day, Baseball can’t be very well predicted in advance because there are way too many variables.   Plus, I think the projection systems are misunderstood.  What the fans see is the “average” of all the projected possibilities, but the average result is rarely what happens.  It’s like sitting here today and trying to predict the weather on April 15.   The average high temperature on that day is 66 degrees, but anyone who lives here knows that it could be 80 or it could be 50 that day.  So don’t plan your April 15 wardrobe right now based on the “average” forecast.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Griffey said:

Street & Smith's baseball yearbook used to be the Bible in my house all summer long.

Yeah, loved that one.   

[Frobby]

By the way, I do think the estimate that the O’s have only a 3% chance of making the playoffs is absolutely absurd.  

[Yossarian]

Need to come up with 750 runs.   That's 4.6 runs per game.  Do we have the offense to produce that?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Need to come up with 750 runs.   That's 4.6 runs per game.  Do we have the offense to produce that?

That would be a stretch, if the leaguewide offensive environment is the same as last year.  

[Yossarian]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That would be a stretch, if the leaguewide offensive environment is the same as last year.  

You're correct - compared to last year,  750 runs would put you up near the top in all of baseball.  In previous years in the recent past (Covid year excluded), 750 would get you around top 10 status,  or thereabouts.

This is why I think the offensive production of Mullins, Hays, and Mountcadtle are the key to a successful session. 

[SteveA]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That would be a stretch, if the leaguewide offensive environment is the same as last year.  

Seems like it SHOULD trend up this year:

1) Eliminating the shift can only help hitters

2) Making stealing easier by limiting pickoff throws and enlarging the bases

3) I don't know that pitch clocks will have a big effect, but if they have any effect at all you would think it would negatively affect pitchers who feel "rushed"

4) The only significant ballpark mods I know of are making ballparks smaller (Detroit, and where was the other one, I forget?)

About the only rule change I know of that would depress run scoring is the restrictions on using position players as pitchers.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Seems like it SHOULD trend up this year:

1) Eliminating the shift can only help hitters

2) Making stealing easier by limiting pickoff throws and enlarging the bases

3) I don't know that pitch clocks will have a big effect, but if they have any effect at all you would think it would negatively affect pitchers who feel "rushed"

4) The only significant ballpark mods I know of are making ballparks smaller (Detroit, and where was the other one, I forget?)

About the only rule change I know of that would depress run scoring is the restrictions on using position players as pitchers.

Rogers Centre.

I think the clock will be a wash as many hitters will also feel rushed when they can't adjust everything after every pitch.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Rogers Centre.

I think the clock will be a wash as many hitters will also feel rushed when they can't adjust everything after every pitch.

Honestly it might bother batters more than pitchers.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly it might bother batters more than pitchers.  

 

[eddie83]

56 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Seems like it SHOULD trend up this year:

1) Eliminating the shift can only help hitters

2) Making stealing easier by limiting pickoff throws and enlarging the bases

3) I don't know that pitch clocks will have a big effect, but if they have any effect at all you would think it would negatively affect pitchers who feel "rushed"

4) The only significant ballpark mods I know of are making ballparks smaller (Detroit, and where was the other one, I forget?)

About the only rule change I know of that would depress run scoring is the restrictions on using position players as pitchers.

I saw where Verducci thinks AVG’s could go up 15-20 points. 

[SteveA]

54 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I saw where Verducci thinks AVG’s could go up 15-20 points. 

There's stuff we just don't know like what baseballs TPTB will decide to use this year, for all major league teams, as well as which ones they will use for the Yankees.   So trying to make a prediction of any time is just basically closing your eyes and throwing a dart.

[oriole]

I think 3% is a little low but not crazy or anything. The O’s were a team that seemed to play over their heads a bit last year and nothing has been done this offseason to make a significant difference. So there’s going to be some regression mixed in with the modest upgrades. They’ve still got a bunch of back end starters competing to be the Opening Day starter and outside of two or three super young and inexperienced recent minor league graduates there is no real chance of a stand out player. 
 

Not to be negative or anything, I think the chances are higher than 3% but 3% is still a reasonable prediction. 

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think 3% is a little low but not crazy or anything. The O’s were a team that seemed to play over their heads a bit last year and nothing has been done this offseason to make a significant difference. So there’s going to be some regression mixed in with the modest upgrades. They’ve still got a bunch of back end starters competing to be the Opening Day starter and outside of two or three super young and inexperienced recent minor league graduates there is no real chance of a stand out player. 
 

Not to be negative or anything, I think the chances are higher than 3% but 3% is still a reasonable prediction. 

In a system where 40% of the teams make the playoffs, 3% is pretty gloomy.  

Edited February 15, 2023 by Frobby

[HakunaSakata]

It's pretty simple.

Pecota = Bad

Ricotta = Good