Kyle Bradish 2023

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Looks like we’ve found our ace. He’s going to end up in the top 5 starters in baseball 

And next year, the top two on his own team.  

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really don’t care what Hyde says now.  He’s not the GM, and now is not when those decisions get made.  

You actually believe the Hyde and Elias have not talked about Wells role next year?   You think Hyde would say that without being in sync with Elias.   That is not the organization I have been following.  This team's management thinks 10 steps ahead.  And they are on the same page.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

You actually believe the Hyde and Elias have not talked about Wells role next year?   You think Hyde would say that without being in sync with Elias.   That is not the organization I have been following.  This team's management thinks 10 steps ahead.  And they are on the same page.

No one should be taking comments from Hyde or Elias on the rotation next year seriously. Outside of Bradish, G-Rod and maybe Kremer there are spots up for grabs. 
 

Wells hasn’t shown he can make it through a full season. As much as I like him, he can’t be counted on. 
 

Plus you know as well as I do and everyone else knows that there’s an entire offseason to navigate ahead.  A lot can happen. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You actually believe the Hyde and Elias have not talked about Wells role next year?   You think Hyde would say that without being in sync with Elias.   That is not the organization I have been following.  This team's management thinks 10 steps ahead.  And they are on the same page.

Would you really expect Hyde to say right now, “Wells won’t be in the rotation next year?”   He wouldn’t say that, and shouldn’t.   

Let me ask, since you’ve been following the organization closely: if Wells and Hall are going to be in the rotation next year, who among Bradish, Rodriguez, Means and Kremer won’t be?
 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

You can both "trust your guys" and acquire top-shelf pitching talent at the same time. It's not like acquiring Snell is going to displace Grayson or Bradish in any meaningful way.

Also, they can easily afford Snell. So as a fan, what's the drawback? 

I tend to post about what I think will happen vs. my hopes/dreams.  

To answer your question about drawback - None really, at least not at this point.  But taken too far for a mid-market team can have issues.  And again, we're not there either.  We've been down that path before.  SDP went down this path recently.  Traded a bunch of talent.  Wrote a bunch of checks.  Answered the #3 guy "problem".  And now they are rolling that back.  We're obviously not there now.

Yes, by any traditional measure we can easily afford Snell.  And I do think a Snell would go a long way to bumping the odds in a playoff run.  But I don't think the risk/reward for a long-term contract to a pitcher who 1) throws as hard as he does, 2) has a thin, wiry frame, 3) and is aging fits the SigBot goal of searching for Alpha in his portfolio management.  Maybe they do bring in a Snell on a multiyear deal, but that would a chance from past performance.  Until that happens, my default will be assuming that it won't.  A 1-year deal in the Gibson/Lyles mold (noodle arm who has availability and league average-ish stuff) scratches the IP itch and helps the BP.

 

I like the progress Bradish has made this year.  He gave glimpses of who he could be toward the end of last season.  Some called that SSS, I saw that he had added a sinker the last few months.  He proved it wasn't an SSS this year.  But I can't count on him to top 3 in ERA.

I've compared Grayson to Clemens.  I think this is who he is.  But it's no uncommon to see some regression in the sophomore season.  

I think this is basically who they are.  And we've got two TOR arms here.  But I do think one more year of data for both of them will solidify that statistically.

[Emory Eagle]

I've always been bullish on Bradish, glad to see his growth this year.  He has exceeded my expectations. 

Haven't checked peripherals or stuff + recently, but think he still needs to work on improving K rate and adjusting to how well hitters see his 4-seam FB (whether that is simply throwing it less, replacing it w/ the 2-seam FB, improving his control of the pitch, or changing the shape of the pitch, whatever).  But those are just quibbles.  

[Emory Eagle]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I tend to post about what I think will happen vs. my hopes/dreams.  

To answer your question about drawback - None really, at least not at this point.  But taken too far for a mid-market team can have issues.  And again, we're not there either.  We've been down that path before.  SDP went down this path recently.  Traded a bunch of talent.  Wrote a bunch of checks.  Answered the #3 guy "problem".  And now they are rolling that back.  We're obviously not there now.

Yes, by any traditional measure we can easily afford Snell.  And I do think a Snell would go a long way to bumping the odds in a playoff run.  But I don't think the risk/reward for a long-term contract to a pitcher who 1) throws as hard as he does, 2) has a thin, wiry frame, 3) and is aging fits the SigBot goal of searching for Alpha in his portfolio management.  Maybe they do bring in a Snell on a multiyear deal, but that would a chance from past performance.  Until that happens, my default will be assuming that it won't.  A 1-year deal in the Gibson/Lyles mold (noodle arm who has availability and league average-ish stuff) scratches the IP itch and helps the BP.

 

I like the progress Bradish has made this year.  He gave glimpses of who he could be toward the end of last season.  Some called that SSS, I saw that he had added a sinker the last few months.  He proved it wasn't an SSS this year.  But I can't count on him to top 3 in ERA.

I've compared Grayson to Clemens.  I think this is who he is.  But it's no uncommon to see some regression in the sophomore season.  

I think this is basically who they are.  And we've got two TOR arms here.  But I do think one more year of data for both of them will solidify that statistically.

We need to add SP depth.  We also need some BP depth.  The rotation this year has been remarkably healthy - you just can't rely on that happening again.  By July of next year, both GRod and Bradish could be on the IL.  GRod is a high velocity guy, always a risk, and Bradish throws a high % of breaking pitches, which can put a different kind of strain on the arm... at least they are young.  

Just look at what the Rays have dealt with, and overcome, this year.  

[Sanfran327]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Would you really expect Hyde to say right now, “Wells won’t be in the rotation next year?”   He wouldn’t say that, and shouldn’t.   

Let me ask, since you’ve been following the organization closely: if Wells and Hall are going to be in the rotation next year, who among Bradish, Rodriguez, Means and Kremer won’t be?
 

Those 4 are a lock for the rotation. Obviously. No chance Hall is in the rotation. I think they've established his role pretty clearly and they like him in it. Ideally, he fully develops into a secondary closer / LH 8th inning guy that's just nails and you don't every have to worry about him. He's got that ceiling.

Wells is harder. Did this year prepare him to go deeper next year? I'm not so sure. He really only made it about 60% of the way through the season before he became ineffective, and I'm not sure that's enough to expect him to get through ~35 starts or whatever the normal workload is for a healthy SP. He could fill the same role I described for Hall. Or the two of them plus Cano could become the closer committee, assuming Bautista has a procedure this fall and misses 2024. 

I think we'll either sign or trade for a Kyle Gibson type of rotation arm (hopefully better), or maybe even keep Gibson around, and watch our 4 SP locks pitch like a bunch of 1s and 2s next year. I am very comfortable with our 2024 SP outlook.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No one should be taking comments from Hyde or Elias on the rotation next year seriously. Outside of Bradish, G-Rod and maybe Kremer there are spots up for grabs. 
 

Wells hasn’t shown he can make it through a full season. As much as I like him, he can’t be counted on. 
 

Plus you know as well as I do and everyone else knows that there’s an entire offseason to navigate ahead.  A lot can happen. 

Means?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

Means?

Sure, you're right.  Bradish, G-Rod, Means.  Two spots are open.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[btdart20]

Just now, Emory Eagle said:

We need to add SP depth.  We also need some BP depth.  The rotation this year has been remarkably healthy - you just can't rely on that happening again.  By July of next year, both GRod and Bradish could be on the IL.  GRod is a high velocity guy, always a risk, and Bradish throws a high % of breaking pitches, which can put a different kind of strain on the arm... at least they are young.  

Just look at what the Rays have dealt with, and overcome, this year.  

We needed those this past off-season too.  We got development from Bradish and Charlie Brown's box of rocks.

It's not about what you or I think.  

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Would you really expect Hyde to say right now, “Wells won’t be in the rotation next year?”   He wouldn’t say that, and shouldn’t.   

Let me ask, since you’ve been following the organization closely: if Wells and Hall are going to be in the rotation next year, who among Bradish, Rodriguez, Means and Kremer won’t be?
 

Hyde is very good at say nothing if he wants to.  He didn't have to say anything about Wells role next year but he did.

Wells and Hall will come to ST as starters.   Who is the 5th starter will be determine during camp.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure, you're right.  Bradish, G-Rod, Means.  Two spots are open.

You are such a kidder.

[dystopia]

Wells and Irvin are really valuable commodities because they can be shuffled between the rotation and bullpen frequently depending on injuries and such. 
 

 

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Those 4 are a lock for the rotation. Obviously. No chance Hall is in the rotation. I think they've established his role pretty clearly and they like him in it. Ideally, he fully develops into a secondary closer / LH 8th inning guy that's just nails and you don't every have to worry about him. He's got that ceiling.

Wells is harder. Did this year prepare him to go deeper next year? I'm not so sure. He really only made it about 60% of the way through the season before he became ineffective, and I'm not sure that's enough to expect him to get through ~35 starts or whatever the normal workload is for a healthy SP. He could fill the same role I described for Hall. Or the two of them plus Cano could become the closer committee, assuming Bautista has a procedure this fall and misses 2024. 

I think we'll either sign or trade for a Kyle Gibson type of rotation arm (hopefully better), or maybe even keep Gibson around, and watch our 4 SP locks pitch like a bunch of 1s and 2s next year. I am very comfortable with our 2024 SP outlook.

I don't think just because Wells can only go 15-20 they he will not be a starter to begin the season.   They just need to plan for another starter for the 2nd half.

Edited September 27, 2023 by wildcard