Early spring bullpen thoughts

[RZNJ]

Sometimes, big power type guys take a little longer.   No walks in his last two appearances for Baker.   It's small but important.   I think he starts the season with the team.  If he gets off to a bad start, it looks like Gillaspie, Hoffman, maybe even Cano (if he can build off his last appearance where he was very good and Frobby said 97-98)  will all be options to replace.     Gillaspie and Hoffman are not facing ML hitters.   If the Orioles are serious about them making the team, you'll start to see them earlier in games in away games where most of the other team's starting lineup is still in.    Same thing with Politi.    I think Politi has to be more than "run of the mill" reliever to be kept.     If he doesn't profile as more than a 13th man in the bullpen type, I see no reason to keep him.

[btdart20]

25 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you think Politi is good enough to hold down a spot out of ST?  I'm aware he's a rule 5 guy so we'd have to give him back if he's not on the roster out of ST.  But I do believe we're past the point in the rebuild where we're clinging to Rule 5 guys that would be on the bubble otherwise.

It's not a hill I'm dying on defending either move quite honestly.

I do think Politi has the tools to be a solid BP piece who plays at the end of a BP.  I also think Hall is the better BP option today and still has a chance for mid-rotation type SP too.  

But I also don't think they will be thinking completely about "rebuilding" or not.  At least not in the same way that most consider that term.  If the Rule 5 guy extends the roster without impacting known competitiveness, then I don't see an issue with keeping him.  If the Rule 5 guy doesn't help any factor, then move on.  

If the rotation needs 6-7 MLB level ready pitchers for a competitor to survive the attrition, that means a few are stashed in AAA.  What's the body count for RPs and stashes in AAA?

 

 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's not a hill I'm dying on defending either move quite honestly.

I do think Politi has the tools to be a solid BP piece who plays at the end of a BP.  I also think Hall is the better BP option today and still has a chance for mid-rotation type SP too.  

But I also don't think they will be thinking completely about "rebuilding" or not.  At least not in the same way that most consider that term.  If the Rule 5 guy extends the roster without impacting known competitiveness, then I don't see an issue with keeping him.  If the Rule 5 guy doesn't help any factor, then move on.  

If the rotation needs 6-7 MLB level ready pitchers for a competitor to survive the attrition, that means a few are stashed in AAA.  What's the body count for RPs and stashes in AAA?

 

 

Losers of the Norfolk rotation.  Baumann and Vallimont?   Reid Griffin?, Cano, Hoffman, Vespi, Darwinzon Hernandez,  Bazardo, Ofreidy Garcia.

I like Vespi.  Bazardo is serviceable.   The others have a lot to prove.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think either using Hall as a starter in Norfolk or using him in the bullpen in Baltimore would be wrong.  It’s debatable either way.   Personally, I’d start the year with Hall in Norfolk at this point, but I’m not going to think it’s crazy if they go the other way.  

Exactly. If the Orioles decide to send Hall down to continue to start, so be it. Hall is a bit of a unique situation because he clearly has the stuff and repertoire to start, but his command and health point in the other direction. 

As I said very clearly and understood by 99.9% of the people on here, Hall is a very talented pitcher, but at 24 and half years old, with an injury history that has added up over the years, and command issues that will probably always make him a high pitch count guy, I think it's time to make the transition to the pen.  

Are there valid reason to send him to AAA and see if he can stick as a starter and be AAA depth this year, sure, I could build that case. 

At the end of the day, there is no bad answers to Hall, and certainly no silly or foolish ones besides sending him to AAA to relieve.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

If you're going to limit Hall's availability to only when G-Rod pitches, then you're essentially down a man in the bullpen for the rest of the games.

 

Right..plus it also limits the innings.  Hall can easily go 140ish innings this year if healthy. They plan would limit those innings.

GRod can also go a similar amount.

I think what so many are forgetting is that a lot of starters aren’t asked to go much more than 5 innings anyway. I would much rather have Hall be great for 4-5 innings as a starter than 1 as a reliever.  Even if it takes 100 pitches to do it, if he is putting up the numbers, so be it.

Just makes no sense to have Hall as a short reliever right now, at least to start the season. Maybe by June/July it starts to make more sense but that’s an easy transition to make.

Going from a 1-2 inning reliever and then all of a sudden switching him to a starter is much harder and limiting his innings in 2023 to a short reliever load makes it highly unlikely he’s a starter in 2024.

There are enough reasons for Hall to still be thought of as a starter..just as there are reasons to think he won’t reach that ceiling.  The Orioles have said they still  view him as a starter. I assume they aren’t lying. Hopefully he gets the chance. Hell, I’m ok with him starting up here and going with a 6 man rotation for a little while. I prefer that scenario vs him as a short reliever.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..plus it also limits the innings.  Hall can easily go 140ish innings this year if healthy. They plan would limit those innings.

GRod can also go a similar amount.

I think what so many are forgetting is that a lot of starters aren’t asked to go much more than 5 innings anyway. I would much rather have Hall be great for 4-5 innings as a starter than 1 as a reliever.  Even if it takes 100 pitches to do it, if he is putting up the numbers, so be it.

Just makes no sense to have Hall as a short reliever right now, at least to start the season. Maybe by June/July it starts to make more sense but that’s an easy transition to make.

Going from a 1-2 inning reliever and then all of a sudden switching him to a starter is much harder and limiting his innings in 2023 to a short reliever load makes it highly unlikely he’s a starter in 2024.

There are enough reasons for Hall to still be thought of as a starter..just as there are reasons to think he won’t reach that ceiling.  The Orioles have said they still  view him as a starter. I assume they aren’t lying. Hopefully he gets the chance. Hell, I’m ok with him starting up here and going with a 6 man rotation for a little while. I prefer that scenario vs him as a short reliever.

Silly boy.   You just keep ignoring the Chris Sale and Corbin Burnes examples.    Sale relieved in 79 appearances before he had one ML start.   Somehow, he managed to be a successful starter and log an average of 200 IP over the next 6 years.

Corbin Burnes started in the minors and came up mid season and relieved in all 30 appearances.   The next year, he started 4 games and relieved in 28 and threw a total of 71 IP between the majors and minors.    In 2020 he started 9 of 12 and pitched 59 innings.    Somehow, he managed to become a succesful starter and pitch 167 IP in 2021 and 202 in 2022.    Going to the bullpen doesn't close the door on a pitcher being a starter and throwing 70 innings or less doesn't prohibit a pitcher from putting in a full season as a starter the next year.    You just keep ignoring the facts.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

It has ben stated that it would stress the BP and I have disagreed with that. With the depth and flexibility we have on hand, I can't see that really being a problem early in the year. If it doesn't work out send Hall to AAA to start or let him convert to a RP up here. All I am trying to do keep him on a SP rotation in the MLB until we decide he needs to switch to RP. I really believe we have the luxury to do that early in the year and the flexibility to change course if it doesn't work, long before the BP gets stressed.

You'd be having two guys do the job of one. It would actually be hurting the team. Best thing Hall could do to keep the starter dream alive is go out and dominate at AAA.

 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Silly boy.   You just keep ignoring the Chris Sale and Corbin Burnes examples.    Sale relieved in 79 appearances before he had one ML start.   Somehow, he managed to be a successful starter and log an average of 200 IP over the next 6 years.

Corbin Burnes started in the minors and came up mid season and relieved in all 30 appearances.   The next year, he started 4 games and relieved in 28 and threw a total of 71 IP between the majors and minors.    In 2020 he started 9 of 12 and pitched 59 innings.    Somehow, he managed to become a succesful starter and pitch 167 IP in 2021 and 202 in 2022.    Going to the bullpen doesn't close the door on a pitcher being a starter and throwing 70 innings or less doesn't prohibit a pitcher from putting in a full season as a starter the next year.    You just keep ignoring the facts.

Burnes had previously built his arm up and didn’t, I don’t believe, have an injury history.  He had a season where he pitched about half the amount of innings Hall has as a pro in 6 years.

Burnes was also more polished and didn’t need as much work as Hall does. Hall needs to pitch and learn and he needs to do it more than in short stints where he can just overpower guys.  We know he can do that. That’s easy.

Sale pitched all of 45 innings in the minors and was in the majors the year he was drafted and between college and majors, he threw 150 innings in 2010, which again is about half of what Hall has done.

At age 22 (or close to 3 years younger than Hall right now) he threw 71 innings all in relief. At age 23, they converted him into a starter.

Sale didn’t have an injury history and one that stopped him from throwing. Since he came out of college, he was more advanced.

Now, could Hall do what Burnes did and pitched well as a starter, get moved to a reliever near the end of the year because they are contending and then go back to starter next year?  Sure but that will be because he has built up innings.

If he only throws 50-60 innings this year and he dominates, they are extremely likely to keep him as a reliever long term.  They aren’t going to all of a sudden let him go 140-170 innings.

[Sports Guy]

And btw, coming up with 2 examples (even ones that aren’t apples to apples) doesn’t really prove much. I’m sure you could go through and find many more examples of guys that teams moved to relief and just kept them there.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You'd be having two guys do the job of one. It would actually be hurting the team. Best thing Hall could do to keep the starter dream alive is go out and dominate at AAA.

 

Having two guys pitching 9 innings is not doing the job of one.   A normal night out might be 5 or 6 innings from a starter and 3 to 4 different relievers picking up the next 3-4 innings.   It's two pitchers doing the job of 4 or 5.   The difference is that the reliever isn't available for the in between days, but you've still got 7 other relievers for that.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Having two guys pitching 9 innings is not doing the job of one.   A normal night out might be 5 or 6 innings from a starter and 3 to 4 different relievers picking up the next 3-4 innings.   It's two pitchers doing the job of 4 or 5.   The difference is that the reliever isn't available for the in between days, but you've still got 7 other relievers for that.

They aren't going to pitch 9 every time out, not even close. Or if Grayson is strong enough to go 5-6 consistently he should be allowed to do so with no need for a tandem partner. I just don't see why it makes sense to pair guys together in this way. Would it be cool to see once in a while? Sure. If Gibson gets blown up one day and Hall is available do you burn out the rest of the bullpen just so he can make his tandem start later? Absolutely not. Bring in Hall and call up someone from the shuttle squad because that is how bullpens work.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Burnes had previously built his arm up and didn’t, I don’t believe, have an injury history.  He had a season where he pitched about half the amount of innings Hall has as a pro in 6 years.

Burnes was also more polished and didn’t need as much work as Hall does. Hall needs to pitch and learn and he needs to do it more than in short stints at. That’s easywhere he can just overpower guys.  We know he can do that.

Sale pitched all of 45 innings in the minors and was in the majors the year he was drafted and between college and majors, he threw 150 innings in 2010, which again is about half of what Hall has done.

At age 22 (or close to 3 years younger than Hall right now) he threw 71 innings all in relief. At age 23, they converted him into a starter.

Sale didn’t have an injury history and one that stopped him from throwing. Since he came out of college, he was more advanced.

Now, could Hall do what Burnes did and pitched well as a starter, get moved to a reliever near the end of the year because they are contending and then go back to starter next year?  Sure but that will be because he has built up innings.

If he only throws 50-60 innings this year and he dominates, they are extremely likely to keep him as a reliever long term.  They aren’t going to all of a sudden let him go 140-170 innings.

Of course, he's going to dominate.   You said it was easy.   Funny stuff.    Halls' future depends on a lot of things.  The makeup of the starting rotation and the bullpen.   I can assure you if Hall dominates in the bullpen this year and the Orioles think he can be a #1 or #2 starter, they aren't going to keep him in the bullpen in 2024.

Hall has neither shown that he's durable enough to pitch a full season of starter innings or command the ball enough to keep his pitch count down even at the minor league level.    You wish to send him to AAA to see if things are different this time.   I prefer to put him the bullpen and see what happens.   I'm not saying your way, which might be what the Orioles decide, is foolish or stupid.  I just don't agree with it.    You, on the other hand, can only see things one way.    There is a very good case to be made for him to stick with the club out of the bullpen.   It's been laid out for you.     Good luck.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

They aren't going to pitch 9 every time out, not even close. Or if Grayson is strong enough to go 5-6 consistently he should be allowed to do so with no need for a tandem partner. I just don't see why it makes sense to pair guys together in this way. Would it be cool to see once in a while? Sure. If Gibson gets blown up one day and Hall is available do you burn out the rest of the bullpen just so he can make his tandem start later? Absolutely not. Bring in Hall and call up someone from the shuttle squad because that is how bullpens work.

I'm not advocating this for Hall.   I'd prefer Hall to be a setup guy.   Still, I think the Odds of GRod and Voth combining for 8-9 innings most times out (GRod for 5, Voth for 3-4) are pretty good.    If GRod can't go 5 innings 80% of the time, he probably shouldn't be in the rotation.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Of course, he's going to dominate.   You said it was easy.   Funny stuff.    Halls' future depends on a lot of things.  The makeup of the starting rotation and the bullpen.   I can assure you if Hall dominates in the bullpen this year and the Orioles think he can be a #1 or #2 starter, they aren't going to keep him in the bullpen in 2024.

Hall has neither shown that he's durable enough to pitch a full season of starter innings or command the ball enough to keep his pitch count down even at the minor league level.    You wish to send him to AAA to see if things are different this time.   I prefer to put him the bullpen and see what happens.   I'm not saying your way, which might be what the Orioles decide, is foolish or stupid.  I just don't agree with it.    You, on the other hand, can only see things one way.    There is a very good case to be made for him to stick with the club out of the bullpen.   It's been laid out for you.     Good luck.

Yep..I only see it one way. Completely ending the starter experiment, which is what Tony is essentially advocating for, is foolish. 
 

Making him a SHoRT RELIEVER in 2023 is foolish. 

I think either of those options is foolish RIGHT NOW. There is no argument that will convince me differently because no logical argument exists for either of those scenarios heading into the season.  
 

If that’s what I believe, why should I care what you, Tony or anyone else says?  It’s not like there is evidence that you guys are right or that I’m right. It’s my opinion. 

I already said if the plan was to have him throw 3-4 innings twice a week, I could be ok with that.

That will still build up innings and cause him to need to throw more than 1 or 2 pitches to get guys out.

And btw, when I say easy, I mean that as I don’t feel he’s going to struggle going an inning at a time. I think he can and will dominate in that role. That isn’t nearly the challenge for him.

Edited March 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yep..I only see it one way. Completely ending the starter experiment, which is what Tony is essentially advocating for, is foolish. 
 

Making him a SHoRT RELIEVER in 2023 is foolish. 

I think either of those options if foolish RIGHT NOW. There is no argument that will convince me differently because no logical argument exists for either of those scenarios heading into the season.  
 

If that’s what I believe, why should I care what you, Tony or anyone else says?  It’s not like there is evidence that you guys are right or that I’m right. It’s my opinion. 

I already said if the plan was to have him throw 3-4 innings twice a week, I could be ok with that.

That will still build up innings and cause him to need to throw more than 1 or 2 pitches to get guys out.

And btw, when I say easy, I mean that as I don’t feel he’s going to struggle going an inning at a time. I think he can and will dominate in that role. That isn’t nearly the challenge for him.

A normal rational human being would be able to see the merits of the other side of the argument without calling them foolish.    You've spent 20 years here being tone-deaf.     I'm used to it.     Tony isn't used to being on the other end of your typical retorts to the rest of the board.