Joey Ortiz 2023

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, AlbNYfan said:

 It is hard to state that Ortiz is MUCH more valuable. IMO potential, is not a measurable stat and mostly an emotional belief.

Well said!

[Bemorewins]

14 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think it’s possible to have Henderson, Holliday, Ortiz and Westburg all coexist on the same roster and get essentially full playing time, if Westburg is also playing some 1B/OF. You can protect Henderson/Holliday against tough lefties and Ortiz/Westburg against tough righties, and you have depth in case of an injury. There are always injuries and Elias/Hyde have clearly demonstrated with their MLB roster management that (1) they highly value depth and (2) they prefer to rotate guys through DH as a breather rather than having a set DH. This would put Westburg in somewhat of a Ben Zobrist / Chris Taylor / DJ LeMahieu role as a full time player without a set position, so it’s not unprecedented. 

Keeping all of Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday also gives us depth in case one of them doesn’t translate to the MLB level. They are all great prospects but there are no guarantees. 

That being said, it isn’t the most efficient way to get value out of all 4 of these guys, especially since it now seems like Westburg can be an asset defensively and not just a bat that can sufficiently handle 2B/3B. We would be better served trading one of Westburg/Ortiz as the centerpiece to land an impact SP. However, there isn’t a need to force the issue, and the more I think about it the more I think it’s possible that this is how the Orioles plan to approach it. 

I don’t see it be necessary for Westburg to play 1B. It’s not like we don’t have Mayo and Kjerstad at AAA.

I think your later scenario is the far more likely outcome.

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, wildcard said:

So you think Holliday begins 2024 as the O's SS.   I tend to think that is a little quick.

Actually, I think Holliday is the O’s SS in September. Why not?  He’s gotta tare up Bowie though. I think he’s on up on September 1. He’s a special player. 

This offseason we trade Mateo and Urias for the best deals we can get. They’re valuable players now on a contender, and what we would get in a trade, isn’t worth what they provided to a pennant chase. Mountcastle gets non tendered this offseason. 

So OD 2024…

3B - Gunnar

SS - Holliday

2B - Westburg

Util - Ortiz(Late game sub, plays Vs LHP, general rotation system)

Kjerstad/Mayo - We see them in Mid June after we earn an extra year of service time. 

Santander/Hays/Mullins/O’Hearn - All out with us at least until ASB 2024. Santander SH is just far too valuable to deal this offseason.

This is just how I see things shaking out. We all can still buy Joey Ortiz jerseys. He’ll be here. 

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Actually, I think Holliday is the O’s SS in September. Why not?  He’s gotta tare up Bowie though. I think he’s on up on September 1. He’s a special player. 

This offseason we trade Mateo and Urias for the best deals we can get. They’re valuable players now on a contender, and what we would get in a trade, isn’t worth what they provided to a pennant chase. Mountcastle gets non tendered this offseason. 

So OD 2024…

3B - Gunnar

SS - Holliday

2B - Westburg

Util - Ortiz(Late game sub, plays Vs LHP, general rotation system)

Kjerstad/Mayo - We see them in Mid June after we earn an extra year of service time. 

Santander/Hays/Mullins/O’Hearn - All out with us at least until ASB 2024. Santander SH is just far too valuable to deal this offseason.

This is just how I see things shaking out. We all can still buy Joey Ortiz jerseys. He’ll be here. 

If Santander is not going to be extended he’s going to be dealt if the Orioles are truly going to follow the Rays model. Keeping him until free agency wouldn’t make sense. 

[sportsfan8703]

15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If Santander is not going to be extended he’s going to be dealt if the Orioles are truly going to follow the Rays model. Keeping him until free agency wouldn’t make sense. 

He’s too valuable to our run in 2024. He will be here. I don’t think it’s valued enough that he SH. Adley too. It makes building the lineup that much easier, when you can start with them batting #2/#3 every game. It provides stability over 162. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[ChosenOne21]

46 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He’s too valuable to our run in 2024. He will be here. I don’t think it’s valued enough that he SH. Adley too. It makes building the lineup that much easier, when you can start with them batting #2/#3 every game. It provides stability over 162. 

Depends on what we get for him. If the difference between him and Cowser/Hicks/Kjerstad is less than the difference between our worst starter and whatever starting pitcher we can get for him+ I'm moving him. Doesn't matter that he switch hits or hits 25 home runs or whatever.

Also, he's had like one and a half good seasons and isn't getting younger. For most of his career he was like 0-1 WAR per year.

Edited July 12, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He’s too valuable to our run in 2024. 

No he’s not 

[clapdiddy]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No he’s not 

Agreed.   I love the guy...seems like a great person and teammate.   But, if this would open up the door for Kjerstad to be up, I'd have no problem with that.

Edited July 12, 2023 by clapdiddy

[IPlayGM]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 He will be here. 

I will take that bet.

[wildcard]

Do you think the O's are willing to give Santander 5 years and 100m?   Because that is what it will probably take to extend him.   I don't see the O's doing that.

Edited July 12, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's are will to give Santander 5 years and 100m?   Because that is what it will probably take to extend him.   I don't see the O's doing that.

I highly doubt it takes that to extend him but I don’t think they would extend him at all.

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's are will to give Santander 5 years and 100m?   Because that is what it will probably take to extend him.   I don't see the O's doing that.

Not for Santander.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see it be necessary for Westburg to play 1B. It’s not like we don’t have Mayo and Kjerstad at AAA.

I think your later scenario is the far more likely outcome.

Doesn’t seem like Kjerstad is taking to 1B. And I’m not talking about Westburg as a primary 1B, I think he could be used there similarly to how Urias has been lately. I think Mayo will be the 1B, but will also DH with Kjerstad in RF.

Just to illustrate, you can have all 4 players start 140 games:

- Gunnar: 130 3B, 10 DH

- Holliday: 110 2B, 22 SS, 8 DH

- Ortiz: 140 SS

- Westburg: 52 2B, 32 3B, 30 1B, 16 LF, 10 DH

And that would still leave 132 starts at 1B for Mayo with the rest of his at DH. 

Now, it would never break down perfectly like that and maybe Gunnar and Holliday hit LHP well enough that they should be starting 150+ games if they are fully healthy. Maybe Ortiz doesn’t hit enough and should only be playing 100-130 games when the pitching matchup is favorable or if we don’t have an extreme FB SP (e.g. Wells). But there are always injuries, so one starting-caliber player on the bench can easily get a full season of playing time if the roster is flexible enough defensively (and defensive flexibility has been a big focus of the Orioles’ development program). 

[forphase1]

6 hours ago, AlbNYfan said:

First of all, I don't really care which way the O's go. Mateo has had his opportunity and hasn't used it to make a strong case keep him. It is hard to state IMO though that Ortiz is MUCH more valuable. IMO potential, is not a measurable stat and mostly an emotional belief. Ortiz may be a very good defensive SS, but I doubt he is at Mateo's level. Height alone would seem to indicate not. I haven't seen enough of Ortiz to compare, but Mateo has a gun of an arm. Also, Ortiz does not have the speed or base stealing abilities of Mateo. So, it comes down to Ortiz offensive ability. I hope is minor league stats translates well to the bigs. SSS, but in 34 AB's with the O's, zero walks. his minor league walk rate is about 9.5%. With all that said, I'd rather have Gunnar at SS, Urias at 3rd, Westburg/Frazier at 2nd. I hope the O's don't experiment with Ortiz as a regular SS during a pennant race.

1) Sure, potential isn't a measurable stat per se, but from scouting and the metrics that ARE measurable, we can weigh just how much potential is there.  And that has value, otherwise trades for established players in exchange for prospects with 'potential' wouldn't happen.  In our case of Ortiz versus Mateo, it's not so much that Ortiz has off the chart potential, it's that Mateo is simply that bad.  Therefore the potential that Ortiz carries is MUCH more valuable than the known, and very poor, quality that Mateo carries in his bat.

2) Almost every scouting report raves about the ability Ortiz has with the glove.  Those who follow it much closer than I, @Tony-OHand others, have stated Ortiz practically matches Mateo with the glove, and that from a fielding/defense standpoint there would be little to no drop in performance between the two.  Obviously none of us have seen Ortiz enough in MLB at the SS position to use any kind of MLB metrics to measure between the two, but I trust those who scout and have followed Ortiz to this point and take them at their word.  Ortiz IS at Mateo's level, or so close that the slight difference is negligible.

3) No question that Ortiz does not have the speed of Mateo.  Also no question that the speed of Mateo doesn't help you if he can't get on base, unless just utilized as a pinch runner.  He is one of the fastest players in the game, and a great base stealer.  But that doesn't matter if that speed is sitting on the bench due to his lack of bat skills.  

4) As noted, SSS with Ortiz in MLB, but in AAA he has been putting up similar numbers (.941 OPS in Norfolk) to what Westburg (.939 OPS in Norfolk) and Cowser (.996 OPS in Norfolk) had been.  That at least gives the appearance/hope that Ortiz could have similar success.  Sure, we all know players whose AAA success never translates to the majors, so it's far from a sure thing, but the possibility is certainly there.  If the Os are able and willing to 'experiment' with Westburg and Cowser, they could do the same for Ortiz, and would likely HELP the club if he takes playing time from Frazier or Mateo.

5) All that said, this started from a post made about trade value of Mateo versus Ortiz.  Due to his 'potential' Ortiz has a much higher trade value than Mateo.  Mateo isn't worthless mind you, but also isn't going to have a ton of value as his skillset just isn't good enough to be a key player/starter for most teams.  If we were to trade either Mateo or Ortiz, Ortiz would bring back a much greater return than Mateo.  

Personally I don't want us to trade Ortiz as I want him to be our starting SS until Holiday is ready.  I know he's been labeled as our future SS, but I want to see him perform against high level pitching in AA and AAA before I start moving guys to make room for him.  No matter what we do, we've got a talent/number crunch that will be interesting to see how Elias handles things.  And Lord knows whatever is done is going to lead to disagreements and discussion here on the OH!

[orioles22]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Actually, I think Holliday is the O’s SS in September. Why not?  He’s gotta tare up Bowie though. I think he’s on up on September 1. He’s a special player. 

This offseason we trade Mateo and Urias for the best deals we can get. They’re valuable players now on a contender, and what we would get in a trade, isn’t worth what they provided to a pennant chase. Mountcastle gets non tendered this offseason. 

So OD 2024…

3B - Gunnar

SS - Holliday

2B - Westburg

Util - Ortiz(Late game sub, plays Vs LHP, general rotation system)

Kjerstad/Mayo - We see them in Mid June after we earn an extra year of service time. 

Santander/Hays/Mullins/O’Hearn - All out with us at least until ASB 2024. Santander SH is just far too valuable to deal this offseason.

This is just how I see things shaking out. We all can still buy Joey Ortiz jerseys. He’ll be here. 

You're keeping Santander and sending Cowser to Norfolk next year?