Jud Fabian 2023

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias has done a brilliant drafting since he has been here but I think Fabian stands a chance to be his best pick.

By that, I don’t mean best player but this is a guy that a lot of us weren’t happy with when they drafted him. The BA and K numbers in college were awful and not a sign of long term success.

Elias obviously saw things that were wrong and, as was pointed out, the Florida program definitely has its issues.

Real kudos to Elias (and his team) on this one. Fabian is up to an 880 OPS and likely will be in AA soon. Whether he ends up making it or not, he has clearly shown that he was worthy of the selection and that Elias clearly saw something that wasn’t showing up at Florida. Just an incredible job by him And his team.

What’s also impressive is that we’ve been tied to/interested in Fabian two years running.  Then after Fabian didn’t sign with Boston, he didn’t take that next step forward in Florida the following year.  But Elias still trusted his scouting and development team. 

[Jammer7]

On 6/7/2023 at 5:53 PM, ChuckS said:

What makes Hays more of a grinder than Jud?  I'm still unclear on the grinder/gamer tool. 

The lack of a green font had me question if this is some kind of humor, or what. It isn’t a new term, but ok. 

I don’t think it’s a “tool.” Its an intangible. It’s a term describing the energy exuded by a player, every day. Not that Jud doesn’t grind, he does, he’s just a little more laid back than Hays in his day to day approach. That is just my observation/perception. It’s a real thing scouts look at in an everyday position player.

And to be clear, I am sure there isn’t a bigger fan of Jud than me on this board. But Hays brings “the juice” everyday. Another unclear tool, juice.  

[ChuckS]

21 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

The lack of a green font had me question if this is some kind of humor, or what. It isn’t a new term, but ok. 

I don’t think it’s a “tool.” Its an intangible. It’s a term describing the energy exuded by a player, every day. Not that Jud doesn’t grind, he does, he’s just a little more laid back than Hays in his day to day approach. That is just my observation/perception. It’s a real thing scouts look at in an everyday position player.

And to be clear, I am sure there isn’t a bigger fan of Jud than me on this board. But Hays brings “the juice” everyday. Another unclear tool, juice.  

I have my doubts.  I think it's something that some fans and talking heads like to point to when endorsing a player they like.

I know scouts look at character.  But "gamer" is something used to describe play on the field.  I put it in the same category as "that look in his eye".   Not a real thing. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ChuckS said:

I have my doubts.  I think it's something that some fans and talking heads like to point to when endorsing a player they like.

I know scouts look at character.  But "gamer" is something used to describe play on the field.  I put it in the same category as "that look in his eye".   Not a real thing. 

 

It it a bit of a problematic term in regards to whom it gets used to describe.

[Mr-splash]

Good to see Jud having a nice season down in A ball. Our farm system (besides Holliday) has been looking a bit top heavy and stacked at the higher levels of the minors.

[ChuckS]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It it a bit of a problematic term in regards to whom it gets used to describe.

That's a real thing (that many people say).  You have your "gamers" and "grinders" and then you have your "pure athletes" with "natural ability".  

Just doesn't work in baseball, where results are based on your skills.  Not out working or out hustling people on the field. Football and basketball, sure.  But for whatever reason, that term is thrown around in baseball more than any other sport, where it could actually be applicable.  

Edited June 11, 2023 by ChuckS

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

What’s also impressive is that we’ve been tied to/interested in Fabian two years running.  Then after Fabian didn’t sign with Boston, he didn’t take that next step forward in Florida the following year.  But Elias still trusted his scouting and development team. 

Yep. I actually think that’s not something we really talk about now that you mention it.

This seems like a tight group and they all believe in the system and how things are done. Something to be said about that. All part of building a real organization. 

[Sports Guy]

Btw, Fabian is 3-4 with a HR and 5 RBIs.

His OPS (913) is now 100 points less than Holliday. Now, obviously some of that is Holliday slumping the last week or so but it’s also attributed to Fabian going nuts right now. 

[Alasdaire]

The Fabian pick was fascinating to me when it happened. The O's clearly coveted the guy, he was a first-round talent in 2021 and at worst stagnated in 2022, and yet we got him at slot with the 67th pick and our fourth of the draft? Was Elias really willing to risk losing him to take Beavers/Wagner? Why didn't any other team take him? I think Fabian is way better than the 67th best prospect in the draft.

This is just conjecture, but it made me wonder if the connection between Fabian/Baltimore was so well known that the rest of the league was scared off of picking him and suffering the fate that Boston did the year before. So even though Elias might have liked him enough to take him at 33, he knew he could get him at 67 and still snag Beavers and Wagner. If there's any truth to that, I think it says something both about the reputation the O's development system and Elias' draft savvy.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The Fabian pick was fascinating to me when it happened. The O's clearly coveted the guy, he was a first-round talent in 2021 and at worst stagnated in 2022, and yet we got him at slot with the 67th pick and our fourth of the draft? Was Elias really willing to risk losing him to take Beavers/Wagner? Why didn't any other team take him? I think Fabian is way better than the 67th best prospect in the draft.

This is just conjecture, but it made me wonder if the connection between Fabian/Baltimore was so well known that the rest of the league was scared off of picking him and suffering the fate that Boston did the year before. So even though Elias might have liked him enough to take him at 33, he knew he could get him at 67 and still snag Beavers and Wagner. If there's any truth to that, I think it says something both about the reputation the O's development system and Elias' draft savvy.

The gigantic hole in his swing and poor BA in college were big factors to why he dropped, especially when he went back to college and didn’t really show improvement in that.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

I have my doubts.  I think it's something that some fans and talking heads like to point to when endorsing a player they like.

I know scouts look at character.  But "gamer" is something used to describe play on the field.  I put it in the same category as "that look in his eye".   Not a real thing. 

 

The college and pro guys I know and speak with, it’s a thing. Energy you bring each day is a thing. Maintaining intensity and being consistent with your attitude, preparation and approach is a thing. There are lots of guys with up and down uneven performances. It isn’t a measurable, you cannot quantify it, no. The reason you do not see it as much is those guys without it don’t make it to pro ball or major college ball much. These guys have to have a great work ethic. I saw Hays hit at the Marucci Clubhouse here near Orlando a few years ago in the offseason. He works at a different level than most. I guess it’s something you have to see behind the scenes or before games to compare. 

You disagree, cool. Rock on. 

[Alasdaire]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The gigantic hole in his swing and poor BA in college were big factors to why he dropped, especially when he went back to college and didn’t really show improvement in that.

Could be. But it's hard to believe that front offices saw he struggled with one pitch and uniformly decided he didn't deserve to be picked within the first two rounds solely because of that.

His analytics jump off the page in every way. He has always been a five-tool guy with plus defense at a premium position. He played in the SEC and was age appropriate. And he showed commitment/work ethic enough to make manageable the previous knock on him, his k%, pretty much by just grinding in the cage with his dad.

The inability to not hit high heat might have dropped him out of the top-5 like was once a possibility for him, but out of the top 65?

Even if the rest of the league was scared off by that one flaw, everything the O's have said shows they have always loved the guy. Were they really willing to lose him when they had two chances to take him? Something tells me they had very strong intel that they could get away with taking him with their last pick of day one.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Alasdaire said:

Could be. But it's hard to believe that front offices saw he struggled with one pitch and uniformly decided he didn't deserve to be picked within the first two rounds solely because of that.

 

The one pitch was the four seam fastball.

It's not like he had issues with sliders.

I'm sure that fact that he turned down 2 million from Boston the year before was a factor, as was the simple fact he was a year older.

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The one pitch was the four seam fastball.

It's not like he had issues with sliders.

I'm sure that fact that he turned down 2 million from Boston the year before was a factor, as was the simple fact he was a year older.

Sure. But it's not like the 66 guys taken in front of him were without flaws themselves, and they don't have the floor/ceiling that Fabian has. Just doesn't compute for me that other teams could look at him and say yeah we have him 90th. Maybe he was just off boards altogether if that's such a fatal flaw.

Again just guessing but to me felt like the O's valued Jud enough to take him where either Beavers or Wagner were taken (which was around where they wanted him in 2021) but knew they didn't have to. However they knew that, it's great drafting and bodes well going forward.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Sure. But it's not like the 66 guys taken in front of him were without flaws themselves, and they don't have the floor/ceiling that Fabian has. Just doesn't compute for me that other teams could look at him and say yeah we have him 90th. Maybe he was just off boards altogether if that's such a fatal flaw.

Again just guessing but to me felt like the O's valued Jud enough to take him where either Beavers or Wagner were taken (which was around where they wanted him in 2021) but knew they didn't have to. However they knew that, it's great drafting and bodes well going forward.

I think his absolute floor was low enough for a lot of teams to not consider him for a 7 digit contract.

He did have can't get out of A ball risk.