Ben Verlander: Os on cusp of dynasty…if they buy in

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I hope against hope that what you are stating is not true. If it is, I'm wasting my time as a fan. No, after 40 years (just about my entire lifetime of memories as a fan) I will not be pacified by a consistent level of being almost kind of good enough. If the goal is not to have a World Series game in Baltimore, then what is the point? Just to appear like you care, so that you can trick the fans into continuing to support your ulterior motives?

The Orioles did not appear in a WS from 1972 until 1979.   They were good but not quite good enough.   I enjoyed those years quite a bit.  Always proud to be the fan of a consistent winner.   It amuses me that now, after more years of futility than success, the demands of fans for a championship.   The team won 83 games last year which was one of the greatest one season improvements in the history of the game.  Most people expected a natural regression this year.  Instead, we have the 2nd best record in baseball and a thriving farm system.

Consensus said take Austin Martin, not Heston Kjerstad.   Consensus said take Druw Jones not Jackson Holliday.    
 

I’m just enjoying the ride.

[Aristotelian]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Angelos absolutely has not said anything ruling out a Rutschman extension, and I’m getting really tired of hearing people say things like this.  Here’s his exact quote:

“[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

That’s it.  That’s the whole quote.  

Now, the people who don’t like Angelos or who are predisposed to think the O’s won’t do extensions are spinning that to mean that the O’s won’t extend this player or that.   And maybe they won’t.  But that is not what he said.  

“The system we’re in” allows teams like Tampa and Cleveland to do extensions for key players, and they do them.  There’s nothing Angelos said that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do what smaller market teams like that have done.  The only thing that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do them is the fact that they haven’t done so yet since the rebuild began.  But, it’s very arguable that the timing wasn’t right yet or that the right opportunity hasn’t come up yet.  In any event, Angelos has said nothing ruling out an extension for Rutschman or anyone else. 

 

I will say the "but" in the quote suggests a different interpretation of "the system we're in." Since the first part of the statement is saying that he would love to do extensions, the second part becomes a qualification. If he viewed the system we're in as conducive to extensions, like Tampa apparently does, the proper conjunction there would have been "and". Or he could have elaborated that they have to be selective and make sure they are picking the right player, etc. In view of the organization's behavior through the rebuild, it's fair to be suspicious. Remember Peter also said he would let us look at the books by the end of the week after MLK Day. We can't look at that and then take his statements at face value. That said, I agree definitively stating extensions have been ruled out is a huge overstatement. We just don't know what's going on inside the warehouse.

[clapdiddy]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Orioles did not appear in a WS from 1972 until 1979.   They were good but not quite good enough.   I enjoyed those years quite a bit.  Always proud to be the fan of a consistent winner.   It amuses me that now, after more years of futility than success, the demands of fans for a championship.   The team won 83 games last year which was one of the greatest one season improvements in the history of the game.  Most people expected a natural regression this year.  Instead, we have the 2nd best record in baseball and a thriving farm system.

Consensus said take Austin Martin, not Heston Kjerstad.   Consensus said take Druw Jones not Jackson Holliday.    
 

I’m just enjoying the ride.

Would love to see a WS championship here, but even making the playoffs would be fantastic.   Once you get to the playoffs it's a roll of the dice.   Kind of like 2014...the Orioles were probably the best team in the AL, but KC got hot at the right time.  

It's great to have a team that you feel will compete every night.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

We see warts, he sees some type of team metric like Neo in the Matrix.

Knowing Adley and a couple of the other young guys have given quotes about being Avengers fans, I've thought about trying to cast all the important Orioles as the crew, but Matrix universe has some potential too.

They even have a Trinity for the three true outcomes.    It might play out Adley is the older Morpheus, and Holliday is the one.    I'd pay like dozens of cents to see Adley and Holliday fight in the training construct.

The thing is, the looming Orioles strike zone controlling robots hit me more like Agent Smith.     Vavra is Adley is Gunnar is Cowser is Holliday.

 

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Angelos absolutely has not said anything ruling out a Rutschman extension, and I’m getting really tired of hearing people say things like this.  Here’s his exact quote:

“[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

That’s it.  That’s the whole quote.  

Now, the people who don’t like Angelos or who are predisposed to think the O’s won’t do extensions are spinning that to mean that the O’s won’t extend this player or that.   And maybe they won’t.  But that is not what he said.  

“The system we’re in” allows teams like Tampa and Cleveland to do extensions for key players, and they do them.  There’s nothing Angelos said that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do what smaller market teams like that have done.  The only thing that suggests the O’s wouldn’t do them is the fact that they haven’t done so yet since the rebuild began.  But, it’s very arguable that the timing wasn’t right yet or that the right opportunity hasn’t come up yet.  In any event, Angelos has said nothing ruling out an extension for Rutschman or anyone else. 

 

I’m interpreting those exact words through the lens of what type of owner  he has shown himself to be thus far. He never “opened the books” and he also made it clear that the team would spend when the time was right. This offseason was the time to start that, and even Elias’ comments made it seem like that was the plan. It doesn’t seem that far fetched to conclude that the goalposts moved between “lift off” statement and the beginning of the offseason. When I hear John say things like “work within the system you’re in” then I interpret that as a coy way of dodging the question altogether. 
Ive said all this before and will repeat, I am speculating. No one knows definitively what the plan is, not even Elias probably. But generally in life I think a persons reputation really frames the words they say. I’ll keep my opinion of him to myself because it’s against the rules so be insulting, but just keep in mind that this is how I interpret his words.
 

Anyways, you’re right. He never said “we won’t extend Rutschman” but he did lay the groundwork for an excuse as to why it didn’t happen. Sure, the Rays and Guardians have extended players but they’re generally team friendly contracts. It’s too much to expect Rutschman to pull a Ramirez or Longoria and take less money because he likes the city or team or whatever. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Angelos absolutely has not said anything ruling out a Rutschman extension, and I’m getting really tired of hearing people say things like this.  Here’s his exact quote:

“[Elias & co. are] going to do what they can within the system that they’re in,” Angelos said. “Does that mean extensions? Absolutely, I would hope so. But you gotta go with the system you’re in.”

That’s it.  That’s the whole quote.  

 

 

I guess this colors me as an anti-Angelos person, but when I hear him say something like "But you gotta go with the system you're in," that just sounds like excuse making.  In other words "Hey, you gotta understand the financial restraints that we're working with here."

That's how I read it and I don't think I'm alone here.  So overall, you're correct in that everything he said is ambiguous to really pin down exactly what he meant, but with the way they've operated over the years it's easy to make that interpretation.  

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I guess this colors me as an anti-Angelos person, but when I hear him say something like "But you gotta go with the system you're in," that just sounds like excuse making.  In other words "Hey, you gotta understand the financial restraints that we're working with here."

That's how I read it and I don't think I'm alone here.  So overall, you're correct in that everything he said is ambiguous to really pin down exactly what he meant, but with the way they've operated over the years it's easy to make that interpretation.  

Yeah I agree here. It's hard not to read that quote as "we'd love to do extensions if they were at the price we can afford, but I'm going to go ahead and pre-blame the system in case it doesn't happen which it probably won't, but technically we support extensions in a perfect world". 

[Ridgway22]

34 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Would love to see a WS championship here, but even making the playoffs would be fantastic.   Once you get to the playoffs it's a roll of the dice.   Kind of like 2014...the Orioles were probably the best team in the AL, but KC got hot at the right time.  

It's great to have a team that you feel will compete every night.  

KC got hot, and we were missing Wieters, Machado, Davis. That still stings.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, geschinger said:

It is definitely a concern and one that I share.  However, at this point, there is nothing he has not done yet that is problematic in the context of what I believe Elias was hired to do.

In an alternative universe, if Elias was tasked to implement the Astros blueprint by a perfect owner who was willing to do 100% of what Elias wanted to do, I'm not sure we'd see much difference with the org today.

That’s an optimistic view of the Angelos regime and lack of financially supportive actions that I do not share. Let’s all hope that Angelos transforms from awful into at least average.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You know, I hear stuff like this all the time, especially from you, but the fact is, teams have won the World Series with average to below average starting pitching and no real ace.  Take the 2015 Royals, who were 12th in the AL in starter ERA.

Now, don’t get me wrong.  Having better starting pitching would improve our chances by a lot.  I want the team to go out and acquire a front line starter. I’m sure if I iooked at all WS winners over the last X years, I’d find that most of them had above average starting pitching.   But like pretty much anything in baseball, there is no absolute one way to win a World Series.  

And, it’s also possible that our current crop of starters will be looking pretty good by the end of the year.  We’ve seen plenty of times in MLB where a young staff has gotten better as the year progressed. 

Again, I agree we should seek out some TOR help.  But I won’t say we couldn’t possibly win a WS without it.  

 

I’m not saying that there aren’t exceptions. But I guess I’m asking why with all of this org talent should we be willing to accept such a thin margin for error? I think we both agree and most reasonable/rational fans and objective observers of the game of baseball would agree, that good starting pitching raises the potential of your post season floor. It doesn’t preclude upsets from always happening like the Padres beating the Mets last year when there was such a starting pitching gap between the two teams. But I would prefer not to play with fire, especially when we don’t have to.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The Orioles did not appear in a WS from 1972 until 1979.   They were good but not quite good enough.   I enjoyed those years quite a bit.  Always proud to be the fan of a consistent winner.   It amuses me that now, after more years of futility than success, the demands of fans for a championship.   The team won 83 games last year which was one of the greatest one season improvements in the history of the game.  Most people expected a natural regression this year.  Instead, we have the 2nd best record in baseball and a thriving farm system.

Consensus said take Austin Martin, not Heston Kjerstad.   Consensus said take Druw Jones not Jackson Holliday.    
 

I’m just enjoying the ride.

In 1979, I believe the Orioles appeared in the World Series. And prior to the period that you mentioned there were World Series appearances and some wins 66’ and 70’ I believe.

I however missed all of that. Being that I was born in 1980. You have a lot more successful memories to hold on to than me. I have ZERO! I was to young to remember 83’ and didn’t starting following the Orioles regularly and understanding the game of baseball until 1988.

I saw all of this to say, that no that I am in my 40’s and followed the team for the last 35 years of mostly futility and failure, I would like to see at least one series end with us holding the trophy and having a parade down Pratt like Ravens have had before I leave this life. Those are memories (as I am sure that you are well aware of) that can never be taken away.

As a long suffering loyal fan of this team who has endured one black eye after the other, is it asking to much to want and expect the team to do all that it can to take advantage of this golden opportunity?

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

In 1979, I believe the Orioles appeared in the World Series. And prior to the period that you mentioned there were World Series appearances and some wins 66’ and 70’ I believe.

I however missed all of that. Being that I was born in 1980. You have a lot more successful memories to hold on to than me. I have ZERO! I was to young to remember 83’ and didn’t starting following the Orioles regularly and understanding the game of baseball until 1988.

I saw all of this to say, that no that I am in my 40’s and followed the team for the last 35 years of mostly futility and failure, I would like to see at least one series end with us holding the trophy and having a parade down Pratt like Ravens have had before I leave this life. Those are memories (as I am sure that you are well aware of) that can never be taken away.

As a long suffering loyal fan of this team who has endured one black eye after the other, is it asking to much to want and expect the team to do all that it can to take advantage of this golden opportunity?

I would think after one black after another you’d be pretty happy with a winning team headed in the direction of competing for the playoffs over the next 4-5 years with a chance to maintain that for a longer period of time.   That doesn’t abandon a chance for a WS appearance or championship.

BTW, I’m 63 and this might be the most enjoyable time I’ve had as an Orioles fan with the ability to watch virtually any Oriole game I wish to, watch the minor league games, and get up to date information on any major or minor league player.   You don’t know how good you’ve got it!

Angelos hired Elias and got out of his way.   Best thing the Orioles organization has done in 40-50 years.

They did it your way in the late 90’s.  Hired Pat Gillick and bought the best team money could buy.  ZERO WS appearances followed by years of the worst team money could buy.

Edited May 19, 2023 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Tony, I totally agree with you in that Duquette had different goals and objectives than Elias. But that was the problem in the first place. Somebody has to serve as the caretaker of the longer term future of the franchise. Plus the power dynamics between him and Buck where unsustainable. The on field manger should never be able to usurp the authority of the GM (who is technically his boss). We had a very flawed org chart.

I also believe that Elias still has many unchecked boxes/slashed questions that he still has to answer if we are going to get over the hump and become more like the Giants and Astros than the Nats/Royals.

However, I agree with the gentlemen in the vid Mr. Verlander in that the MAJOR question that must be answered is from ownership, who has historically been awful. I don't see us sustaining excellence as an org, without serious ownership investment and support. Will the evil Angelos empire actually do the right thing? Will ownership give Elias the support, assistance, and tools that he needs to effectively answer the questions that you pose? Will ownership actually care enough about the sustained success of the Baltimore Orioles World Series pursuits to do what it takes? The evil Angelos empire has had it real cushy the last 5 years, but the time is coming (and pretty soon) where ownership is going to have to "pay the piper" if we are to maximize this wonderful opportunity.

Great post. Nothing I disagree with here at all.

Ultimately, it will be to ownership to sustain the foundation built by Elias. No one knows whether they will or not but if Elias has another offseason like he did last year, I think we will have a big clue.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, SemperFi said:

I would add that Duquette was brought in because no one else wanted the job.  One of the failings of PA was that his meddling made the GM job much less attractive.  Duquette was an upgrade over Syd Thrift but I don't think anyone was interested in him before his Orioles stint and most telling no one has been after.  

Duquette is an interesting character. After meeting him, talking with him, and seeing him in interviews, I always felt he was somewhere on the spectrum. I think he is very intelligent and when left to do his biddings before technology really took over, he was successful. However, the game clearly passed him by with the technological advancements and he never seemed to have a lot of interest in the analytics side of things. 

I'm not surprised at all that he has not found another major league baseball job as most organizations have put guys like Duquette out to the pasture. That should take away from the successes he had as a GM. 

Was it time to move on from him, not only absolutely, but they should have let him gone to Toronto or given him the promotion and money that Toronto was offering vs taking away his power and influence and allowing Buck and Brady to fill that vacuum in various ways.

I really like a lot of things Elias has done to rebuild the organization and I'm convinced he's a great person for that particular job, rebuild an antiquated organization. The next question is can he now sustain a winning formula at the major league level within the financial limitations put forth on him by ownership? 

We still don't know that answer.  

[geschinger]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That’s an optimistic view of the Angelos regime and lack of financially supportive actions that I do not share. Let’s all hope that Angelos transforms from awful into at least average.

It is actually not a view of Angelos at all.   I'm concerned he will ruin everything by blocking Elias.  My point is I don't think there has been anything to block yet, as nothing that has or has not been done to this point is inconsistent with the Astros model. 

 If the Orioles are where they are at now in the standings in July - will Elias be allowed to add significant salary (something equivalent to a Verlander type of acquisition) to try to put them over the top - that will be the first time whether or not Elias will be allowed to fully implement the Astros like approach will be tested.