Grayson Optioned

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Big Ben said to me on Twitter that he believes it’s a mechanical issue because the fastball command isn’t good and that he didn’t believe he altered anything since the injury.

It's a mechanics issue.

He can't repeat his delivery.  You see it in the way he finishes his pitches on his follow through...he's almost never in the same position in back to back pitches.  That's a glaring indication that he's not repeating everything the same way.

Mussina was the gold standard.  Dude finished squared up to home plate on both feet ready to field after every pitch, didn't matter what he just threw...knuckle curve, fastball, it all looked the same.  Maddux was the same way, too.  Those two finished the same way every time because their mechanics the entire way through were identical.

Some guys can get away with it, IIRC I don't think Sale repeats his delivery that well but it works for him.

It's hard to tell sometimes on TV but when a pitcher isn't consistent with how he finishes his delivery, it's a big red flag.  I'm not sure if this was different for him before his lat injury last year or not.  But, IMO, it's a big, big red flag that if he's been this way all along, that they promoted him to the majors.   If he's been this way all along, he's been blowing away minor leaguers on sheer stuff and not refining the little things that'd make him successful in the majors.

He's got a lot of work to do and I don't think it's going to be easy.

 

[AnythingO's]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's a mechanics issue.

He can't repeat his delivery.  You see it in the way he finishes his pitches on his follow through...he's almost never in the same position in back to back pitches.  That's a glaring indication that he's not repeating everything the same way.

Mussina was the gold standard.  Dude finished squared up to home plate on both feet ready to field after every pitch, didn't matter what he just threw...knuckle curve, fastball, it all looked the same.  Maddux was the same way, too.  Those two finished the same way every time because their mechanics the entire way through were identical.

Some guys can get away with it, IIRC I don't think Sale repeats his delivery that well but it works for him.

It's hard to tell sometimes on TV but when a pitcher isn't consistent with how he finishes his delivery, it's a big red flag.  I'm not sure if this was different for him before his lat injury last year or not.  But, IMO, it's a big, big red flag that if he's been this way all along, that they promoted him to the majors.   If he's been this way all along, he's been blowing away minor leaguers on sheer stuff and not refining the little things that'd make him successful in the majors.

He's got a lot of work to do and I don't think it's going to be easy.

 

Thank you for a moment of sanity and perspective.

[Billy F-Face3]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's a mechanics issue.

He can't repeat his delivery.  You see it in the way he finishes his pitches on his follow through...he's almost never in the same position in back to back pitches.  That's a glaring indication that he's not repeating everything the same way.

Mussina was the gold standard.  Dude finished squared up to home plate on both feet ready to field after every pitch, didn't matter what he just threw...knuckle curve, fastball, it all looked the same.  Maddux was the same way, too.  Those two finished the same way every time because their mechanics the entire way through were identical.

Some guys can get away with it, IIRC I don't think Sale repeats his delivery that well but it works for him.

It's hard to tell sometimes on TV but when a pitcher isn't consistent with how he finishes his delivery, it's a big red flag.  I'm not sure if this was different for him before his lat injury last year or not.  But, IMO, it's a big, big red flag that if he's been this way all along, that they promoted him to the majors.   If he's been this way all along, he's been blowing away minor leaguers on sheer stuff and not refining the little things that'd make him successful in the majors.

He's got a lot of work to do and I don't think it's going to be easy.

 

Just to add illustration to your point about mechanics and repeating the delivery for consistency.... Earlier this month, we watched a 39-40 year old Zach Greinke shut us out and hold us to only 3 hits just by repeating his delivery and commanding his pitches with pin point accuracy. He wasn't throwing heat. He was just commanding his pitches and making them accurately go where he wanted to put them through good, repetitive, mechanics. Guys like that are always able to execute their strategy and make pitching into an art-form.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Just to add illustration to your point about mechanics and repeating the delivery for consistency.... Earlier this month, we watched a 39-40 year old Zach Greinke shut us out and hold us to only 3 hits just by repeating his delivery and commanding his pitches with pin point accuracy. He wasn't throwing heat. He was just commanding his pitches and making them accurately go where he wanted to put them through good, repetitive, mechanics. Guys like that are always able to execute their strategy and make pitching into an art-form.

Yes.  And due to being able to repeat his delivery, he's been able to transition from a power pitcher to a finesse guy.

He's at the end of his career and his stats aren't what they were, he doesn't throw gas but he's certainly capable of going out any given start and be able to be efficient like he was against us.

I will also say, G-Rod is a big dude, long limbs, etc.  It's hard for a guy like that to repeat his mechanics.  Everything is a trade off, you have a guy like G-Rod with long levers, can throw hard, but it's going to be hard for him to repeat everything.  He's listed at 6'5 but I wouldn't be surprised if he were taller than that.  He looks absolutely huge.  

[Just Regular]

FWIW Eno Sarris in podcast today said word on the street was Hawkeye spotted something and tipping was real.    Aside from load management, this Minors time could also be purposed to fixing that, assuming BAL can self-diagnose and crack the case of whatever other Clubs had.

I don't think Sarris would have made that up.     

Also, the many non-competitive waste pitches....tipping nothing to do with that.

[Spy Fox]

9 hours ago, Just Regular said:

FWIW Eno Sarris in podcast today said word on the street was Hawkeye spotted something and tipping was real.    Aside from load management, this Minors time could also be purposed to fixing that, assuming BAL can self-diagnose and crack the case of whatever other Clubs had.

I don't think Sarris would have made that up.     

Also, the many non-competitive waste pitches....tipping nothing to do with that.

The tipping idea makes sense to me, because we’ve seen plenty of other guys with poor command, taking too many pitches to get outs, and worse stuff than Grayson’s… but who didn’t get hit as hard, as often as Grayson was.

His HR issue and general barrels issue, given the strong velocity and stuff, strikes me as beyond the typical “they can sit fastball” explanation. 

[Billy F-Face3]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

His HR issue and general barrels issue, given the strong velocity and stuff, strikes me as beyond the typical “they can sit fastball” explanation. 

If he's not commanding his secondary pitches properly, he's also not getting enough movement on the baseball. No movement on the baseball means you're giving up more home runs. His slider and change up are the pitches that's supposed to combat home run swings, when they are working.

[Bemorewins]

Was he tipping pitches going all the way back to his first home start against the lowly A’s? Because he was pretty bad in that start. Look at all the 0-2 hits he gave up that game and consistently throughout his stint. 

I think an objective observer could come to the conclusion, if he’s getting hit this hard by a bunch of AAAA guys, when he gets to more talented lineups something will have to chance or he will get bad results.

I love Grayson talent. But he needs A LOT of work on his ability to command his pitches and pitch off of his fastball. This is where I wish we would have brought in Verlander. Because I would have told Grayson “just go watch him and mimic everything you see him do”. Verlander uses his fastball and has done so for years and pitches at the top of the zone to get swings and misses and induce weak fly ball contact.

With the modern day obsession of hitters using uppercut swings to produce launch angles, they best way to defeat that is with upper velo (like Grayson has) at the top of the zone and just above. Even if a batter hits 97-99 with that type of swing it won’t very often produce solid contact. But often he will swing through it.

If I’m the O’s I’m telling Grayson to go work/fix that first. Then you can work on using the secondaries in more effective spots. But with that kind of velo as a starter, you should be effective if you can just locate the fastball consistently.

[Going Underground]

Grayson bobblehead tonight but not pitching till tomorrow, Marvel night. I guess working on things because eight days since last start.  At least he looks so happy in the picture to be in Norfolk.

 

[Just Regular]

Delicate work for the poor Norfolk Tides social media marketing assistant.

[Going Underground]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Delicate work for the poor Norfolk Tides social media marketing assistant.

I knew a guy who was an intern at A ball in the minors. He was a marketing assistant. Did the guys laundry besides the ticket sales.Also helped with the tarp and was the mascot when the other person didn't show up 

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Delicate work for the poor Norfolk Tides social media marketing assistant.

OMG if looks could kill.  Talk about adding insult to injury....."Grayson, you're demoted"......"Grayson, hold this please"

In all seriousness it will be interested to see how he handles next few starts.  I hope he pitches like a man on a mission and realizes what gave him success at AAA isn't going to cut it in MLB and he starts to refine his game even more.  Biggest tests come after the player has been knocked on his back side and to see how he gets back up. 

[AdamK]

I can tell even the bobblehead is going to throw a fastball there. 

[Baltimorecuse]

Is Grayson a head case?  

[e16bball]

On 5/31/2023 at 9:05 AM, Billy F-Face3 said:

If he's not commanding his secondary pitches properly, he's also not getting enough movement on the baseball. No movement on the baseball means you're giving up more home runs. His slider and change up are the pitches that's supposed to combat home run swings, when they are working.

I don’t disagree with any of this, conceptually, but I do still think that his HR rate was really pretty remarkable even when you take into account what you’re discussing here. 

Amongst all the pitchers in baseball this year with at least 40 IP under their belt (a total of 120 guys), here are the top 5 in HRs per fly ball:

1. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) - 27.1%

2. Josh Fleming (TB) - 25.7%

3. Louie Varland (MIN) - 21.4%

4. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) - 21.4%

5. Ken Waldichuk (OAK) - 20.9%

 

In other words, Louie Varland and Yusei Kikuchi are in the 1st percentile as far as HR/FB — and Grayson was somehow still 27% worse than them, in terms of fly balls leaving the park.

That is suggestive of something a bit out of the ordinary going on. Especially when you consider that he was still missing bats at an elite rate (9th out of that 120 man group in K/9). Someone like myself (or Ryan McKenna) would absolutely have an abnormally high HR/FB rate — but we couldn’t ever strike out 11 guys per 9 innings either, so it’s not like he was just consistently throwing tasty meatballs up there. 

Just taking a quick look back at recent history (since 2010), if we bump the qualification criteria up to even just 60 innings, there have only been three guys who have put up a higher HR/FB rate over the course of a full season. Out of the 4000+ qualified seasons, only CIN rookie starter Amir Garrett (28.4% over 70.2 IP in 2017) and relievers Jared Hughes (28.9% over 71.1 IP in 2019) and Joe Biagini (27.5% over 64.2 IP in 2019) have ever topped the rate Grayson put up so far this year.

Does it mean he was tipping? I don’t know. But I do know that it’s extraordinary to see so many of your fly balls turn into home runs, and I know that no one in recent history has ever maintained a rate comparable to Grayson’s for more than about 70 innings. To me, that suggests something may be afoot.