FCL Orioles 2023

[Frobby]

The FCL O’s are pretty dismal at 12-23, mainly because their pitching is terrible: 6.83 runs allowed 14th out of 15 and more than a full run worse than league average 5.68.  Part of that is lousy defense, because their 5.97 ERA is only 4th worst in the league, but they’re also 3rd worst in unearned runs allowed and 2nd worst in fielding %.   The offense is also below average, 4.91 runs/game, 10th in the league, but at least they’re competitive.  

Part of the reason the pitching is bad is that they promoted Luis De Leon (1.65 ERA) and Zach Showalter (0.90), and Bryan Bautista (2.55) hasn’t pitched in July, apparently down with some kind of injury.  That leaves Raul Rangel (4.39) as probably the team’s best pitcher.  Rangel, unfortunately, is now in his third FCL stint, and has not been as good at age 20 as he was as an 18-year old two years ago.

Offense-wise, there have been some promising performances.   Sort of out of nowhere, 19-year old C Aneudis Mordan is slashing .328/.456/.672 with a team-leading 6 homers and 17 RBI, after posting a .555 OPS in the DSL last year.  He also looks to be the best defensive C on the FCL O’s.   18-year old OF Thomas Sosa is hitting .288/.395/.480 with 2 homers and 14 RBI after OPSing .596 in the DSL last year.  18-year old infielder Leandro Arias has hit .284/.340/.453 after OPSing .650 in the DSL last year, though his fielding has been very erratic splitting his tone between 2B, 3B and SS (13 errors total).  18-year old OF Braylin Tavera has hit .244/.385/.366 with 2 homers and 12 RBI, after a .730 OPS campaign in the DSL last year.   

I think you’d have to count as disappointing so far Edwin Amparo, who has a .638 OPS after posting .703 in the DSL last year; and Maikol Hernandez, who after a fast start now has a .608 OPS while repeating the league.  He’s also made 10 errors defensively.  Amparo has been more surehanded than Hernandez or Arias, but appears to have less range, based on RF/G.

Anyway, it seems like there will be a good number of positional prospects moving up to Delmarva next year.  As to the pitchers, let’s just say it’s a good thing the O’s went pitcher-heavy in the draft.   
 

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

I believe the top 4 bonus boys from last year were.

1. Taveras

2. Amparo

3. Arias

4. Sosa

I would say all 4 are holding their own in the FCL.  Sosa is a nice development because his debut in DSL suggested possible bust.  The top performer last year was Aron Estrada who has been injured but just back and not quite on track yet.   Benavides and Velásquez are two more hopefuls who have gotten off slowly.   Strength in numbers but no Basallo type prospects yet in this class.   

[Chaka Garcia]

I noticed Leandro Arias is hitting 287, 800 OPS, decent walk rates and 6 stolen bases. Any feedback if he has potential to be a prospect or he’s more a Darnell Hernaiz type - good numbers every level, but more AAAA/utility type.

[Frobby]

The FCL O's finished 22-32, last in their division and third-worst in the FCL.  Since my last update, they went 10-9, helped considerably by a 5-0 record during the week that most of our 2023 draftees were getting their feet wet in the FCL before moving on to Delmarva.

The O's offense wasn't awful, 10th/15 in runs/game and 8th in OPS.   However, the pitching was quite poor, finishing 14th in runs allowed per game and 12th in ERA.

Statistically, the following players stood out to me:

Aneudis Mordan, 19, .274/.390/.504, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 19 BB, 29 K's in 141 PA.  It was a breakout year for Mordan, who had not hit in two prior DSL seasons but was promoted to the FCL this year.  Mordan split his time between C and 1B, but was poor defensively behind the dish, allowing 35 SB with only 8 CS and 3 passed balls, in 132.1 innings.

Thomas Sosa, 18, .290/.385/.492, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 17 BB, 31 K's in 143 PA.  Sosa mostly played RF, but also a good bit of CF when Braylin Tavera wasn't playing there.  Sosa received a $400,000 bonus in 2022.

Braylin Tavera, 18, .262/.391/.421, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 22 BB, 23 K's in 133 PA.  He also stole 13 bases, but was caught 5 times.  Tavera mostly played CF, with a few reps in the corners.  Tavera received a $1.7 mm bonus in 2022.

Leandro Arias, 18, .271/.370/.414, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 20 BB, 20 K's in 162 PA.  He also stole 12 bases with only 2 CS.  Arias split his time almost equally at 2B/SS/3B, but was extremely error-prone at both spots on the left side of the infield, so I suspect his future position is 2B.  Aias received a $600 k bonus in 2022.

On the pitching side, the only pitcher whose numbers stand out is Luis De Leon, 20, who in 6 starts at 27.1 innings racked up a 1.65 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB.   De Leon was promoted to Delmarva in mid-July and has continued doing well there.

I think this season may have sealed the fate of Maikol Hernandez ($1.2 mm bonus in 2021), who repeating the FCL at age 19, posted a .577 OPS and slipped a bit (at least, statiistically) on defense.  Edwin Amparo, the other big bonus baby from 2022 ($650 k), posted a .203/.384/.284 line, though he did walk 21 times vs. 18 K's.  Aron Estrada, who dominated in the DSL last season, missed a good chunk of 2023 with injuries and posted a .206/.383/.365 line in a little more than a half-season's worth of plate appearances walking 15 times while striking out only 11. 

Obviously, I am only looking at the stat sheet, and I look forward from whatever we hear from @Tony-OHwhen he checks in with his sources.   

[scarey1999]

Thank you for these write ups. Always very well done. 

Outside of the few names mentioned, this was overall a very disappointing season developmentally.  Of course, as a  fan of the Orioles, I want everyone to do well and find success.  Although the vast majority of the fan base do not follow these lower level prospects to the detail many of us do, there was some excitement coming into this season for the FCL (and DSL teams too) based on some of the international talent that was signed in recent years.  Even taking the Orioles colored glasses off, you’d have to say overall that expectations were nowhere close to being met.  I realize of course that not every player we draft or sign is going to become a MLB contributor, in fact the vast majority never advance beyond AA.
 

Outside of Basallo and the few players mentioned here and in the DSL thread, not a lot to get excited about yet based on bonuses handed out vs on field performance thus far.  These players are still very young, but for guys like Maikol Hernandez, the opportunity window closes if you’re not able to demonstrate results on the field.  This is especially true with how well Elias has drafted.  There is simply no longer the organizational roster space to foster these players for as long as we may have done in years past. 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

Thank you for these write ups. Always very well done. 

Outside of the few names mentioned, this was overall a very disappointing season developmentally.  Of course, as a  fan of the Orioles, I want everyone to do well and find success.  Although the vast majority of the fan base do not follow these lower level prospects to the detail many of us do, there was some excitement coming into this season for the FCL (and DSL teams too) based on some of the international talent that was signed in recent years.  Even taking the Orioles colored glasses off, you’d have to say overall that expectations were nowhere close to being met.  I realize of course that not every player we draft or sign is going to become a MLB contributor, in fact the vast majority never advance beyond AA.
 

Outside of Basallo and the few players mentioned here and in the DSL thread, not a lot to get excited about yet based on bonuses handed out vs on field performance thus far.  These players are still very young, but for guys like Maikol Hernandez, the opportunity window closes if you’re not able to demonstrate results on the field.  This is especially true with how well Elias has drafted.  There is simply no longer the organizational roster space to foster these players for as long as we may have done in years past. 

I think this is pretty par for the course; most international guys who get big bonuses don’t pan out.  

I think the 22-32 FCL team record, while disappointing, was fairly predictable.  Last year’s DSL teams were 49-68 collectively and the FCL team was 16-39, so 22-32 is a significant improvement over last year.  I’m encouraged that this year’s DSL teams improved to 55-54.  I think that’s a reflection of improving talent and hopefully that results  in improvement at the FCL level next year.

On an individual level, my biggest disappointments were that Ayden Almeyda (top DSL prospect) and Aron Estrada (top DSL hitter last year) were hampered by injuries.  I was hoping, but not really expecting, that Maikol Hernandez would develop more this year. 

 

[scarey1999]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think this is pretty par for the course; most international guys who get big bonuses don’t pan out.  

I think the 22-32 FCL team record, while disappointing, was fairly predictable.  Last year’s DSL teams were 49-68 collectively and the FCL team was 16-39, so 22-32 is a significant improvement over last year.  I’m encouraged that this year’s DSL teams improved to 55-54.  I think that’s a reflection of improving talent and hopefully that results  in improvement at the FCL level next year.

On an individual level, my biggest disappointments were that Ayden Almeyda (top DSL prospect) and Aron Estrada (top DSL hitter last year) were hampered by injuries.  I was hoping, but not really expecting, that Maikol Hernandez would develop more this year. 

 

Agreed with the 1st part I bolded.  I pretty much said the same in my dissertation lol.  I’d certainly categorize myself as a realist, but at the same time, since the Orioles neglected doing anything on the international front for so many years, I probably got my hopes elevated too quickly just due to the fact we actually started to make financial commitments outside of the draft. 

I typically pay less attention to the team records of the lower level teams, and more to individual stats, but an increase in win % year to year can be construed as progress. 

Also, for Almeyda…just a note that it’s Luis and not Ayden. Unless he underwent a name change I wasn’t aware of .

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

Agreed with the 1st part I bolded.  I pretty much said the same in my dissertation lol.  I’d certainly categorize myself as a realist, but at the same time, since the Orioles neglected doing anything on the international front for so many years, I probably got my hopes elevated too quickly just due to the fact we actually started to make financial commitments outside of the draft. 

I typically pay less attention to the team records of the lower level teams, and more to individual stats, but an increase in win % year to year can be construed as progress. 

Also, for Almeyda…just a note that it’s Luis and not Ayden. Unless he underwent a name change I wasn’t aware of .

He goes by Ayden, which is his middle name.  

I agree that team records aren’t super-important, but I still think it gives some idea of the talent, if the team is age-appropriate.  I remember pre-Elias and for the first year or so after he got here, our DSL players averaged about two years older than the typical DSL team, so the team record was totally misleading.  But now are teams are age-appropriate, even a touch on the young side in some cases.