Elias & Prospect Promotion

[casadeozo]

I know there is an ongoing discussion in the Westburg thread in the minors forum, but I wanted to bring the discussion to the main forum.

Is there a consensus on what the rationale is for not promoting Westburg? Is it purely his perceived defense at SS? 

Why is the organization not making an effort to find a place for him like they did Stowers last year? (fully aware Stowers was also mismanaged)

Is this decision purely to leave him at AAA until the trade deadline to not show a weaker performance at the ML level to entice trade partners?

For someone like Elias, who comes from such a smart organization like Houston, to prioritize AAAA talent like Frazier etc continues to befuddle me.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think it has anything to do with SS because he isn’t a SS in this organization short or long term. 

[NCRaven]

I think it's as simple as there is no obvious need right now.  Frazier isn't a star, but he's been a perfectly capable 2nd baseman.  And there's a balance to be found between constantly seeking to improve and not rocking the boat when you're winning and teammates are happy with each other.  Mateo is a solid defender who, at the least, would be a good utility option if they decide to stick with Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS.  Westburg's never played first base and we have all of Mountcastle, Santander, O'Hearn and Lester to play there when needed. 

I think the trade deadline may shake things up.  Whether it's Westburg that goes, Urias, or someone else, who knows.

[jamalshw]

1 minute ago, casadeozo said:

I know there is an ongoing discussion in the Westburg thread in the minors forum, but I wanted to bring the discussion to the main forum.

Is there a consensus on what the rationale is for not promoting Westburg? Is it purely his perceived defense at SS? 

Why is the organization not making an effort to find a place for him like they did Stowers last year? (fully aware Stowers was also mismanaged)

Is this decision purely to leave him at AAA until the trade deadline to not show a weaker performance at the ML level to entice trade partners?

For someone like Elias, who comes from such a smart organization like Houston, to prioritize AAAA talent like Frazier etc continues to befuddle me.

I wouldn't call Frazier AAAA talent, but I do get the point that Westburg (as well as Ortiz and Norby) bring more upside. I think Elias' love of LHH to compensate for the LF wall has something to do with it. Back to the AAAA point, Frazier isn't a great player, but he does have a 1.1 rWAR so far this season. That's well above AAAA talent which to me, means closer to replacement level. 

All that said, I can't wait for Frazier to be relegated to the bench as an occasional 2B and OF with Westburg getting the bulk of the play at 2B. I think you can easily go with a Urias/Henderson/Westburg infield right now, sending Lester down. 

I don't think Elias is intentionally holding Westburg for trade value as I think teams are smart enough to realize a month of struggles for a prospect in MLB doesn't mean a whole lot as most players take some time to adjust. I think it's truly that Elias doesn't see the need at this time and values the depth of the guys on the 40-man more than getting Westburg to the big leagues. I don't agree with that, but I think that's what's happening at the moment. 

Mateo's continued struggles may increase the need, but for now, we have two above average hitters in Henderson (124 OPS+) and Urias (111 OPS+) in the infield alongside Frazier who isn't great, but as noted above does have a 1.1 rWAR. Westburg would be an upgrade, but I'm not convinced Elias is convinced of that...yet. 

[Aristotelian]

As far as I can tell the organization has been incredibly tight lipped about Westburg. It's pretty clear he has surpassed any threshold they might have, so it is just a matter of being blocked by players ahead of him performing well enough. The Orioles media has done a "good" job of not asking these questions. 

[casadeozo]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think it's as simple as there is no obvious need right now.  Frazier isn't a star, but he's been a perfectly capable 2nd baseman.  And there's a balance to be found between constantly seeking to improve and not rocking the boat when you're winning and teammates are happy with each other.  Mateo is a solid defender who, at the least, would be a good utility option if they decide to stick with Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS.  Westburg's never played first base and we have all of Mountcastle, Santander, O'Hearn and Lester to play there when needed. 

I think the trade deadline may shake things up.  Whether it's Westburg that goes, Urias, or someone else, who knows.

I guess thats the question right? Why not get Westburg reps at 1B? 

We were playing well last year when Henderson was promoted as well. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think it's as simple as there is no obvious need right now.  Frazier isn't a star, but he's been a perfectly capable 2nd baseman.  And there's a balance to be found between constantly seeking to improve and not rocking the boat when you're winning and teammates are happy with each other.  Mateo is a solid defender who, at the least, would be a good utility option if they decide to stick with Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS.  Westburg's never played first base and we have all of Mountcastle, Santander, O'Hearn and Lester to play there when needed. 

I think the trade deadline may shake things up.  Whether it's Westburg that goes, Urias, or someone else, who knows.

Frazier has an fWAR of .2. The defense, which was supposed to be his calling card, isn’t as good as it has been. He has had his moments offensively but he isn’t good offensively. Many of hits are a result of just putting the ball in play, which is great in certain situations but he needs some luck.

I like a lot of things that he brings to the table and I’m fine with him being here but he has no business starting and Westburg shouldn’t be held back because of him.

[Moose Milligan]

CoC hasn’t chimed in, so I’ll do it for him. They’re holding guys like Westburg down in order to gain another year of service time. 
 

It is as simple as that. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

CoC hasn’t chimed in, so I’ll do it for him. They’re holding guys like Westburg down in order to gain another year of service time. 
 

It is as simple as that. 

That hasn't been a consideration since 4/16.

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think it's as simple as there is no obvious need right now.  

I think the trade deadline may shake things up.

I agree with these general themes.  Plus, Elias "trusts the process" and won't make knee-jerk decisions,  I think the stars are aligning where we'll start to see another prospect soon.  The trade deadline, prospect valuation, and adjustment period are X factors.

7 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I guess thats the question right? Why not get Westburg reps at 1B? 

We were playing well last year when Henderson was promoted as well. 

Gunnar and Stowers at the end of 2022 was a bit different.  Sure we were going for playoffs, but that was also a search for a higher ceiling AND getting the rookie adjustments out of the way.  The way I'm reading the tea leaves is that 2023 has been about raising the floor so far (i.e. Frazier provides a degree of certainty that a rookie wouldn't, especially early in the season). 

Personally, I'm hoping Cowser gets the call before tomorrow's game.

[casadeozo]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Frazier has an fWAR of .2. The defense, which was supposed to be his calling card, isn’t as good as it has been. He has had his moments offensively but he isn’t good offensively. Many of hits are a result of just putting the ball in play, which is great in certain situations but he needs some luck.

I like a lot of things that he brings to the table and I’m fine with him being here but he has no business starting and Westburg shouldn’t be held back because of him.

And thats my point.

I think it also send a bad message to resto of the young players in the minors.

For context, Westburg in AAA between 2022/2023 (147 Games/592 PA)

35 HR

127 RBI

.287/.370/.554

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

CoC hasn’t chimed in, so I’ll do it for him. They’re holding guys like Westburg down in order to gain another year of service time. 
 

It is as simple as that. 

With Westburg, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Elias might be planning to use him as a centerpiece in a trade to acquire a TOR starting pitcher. I don't think Westburg will get traded, but the Orioles aren't going to have room for all these prospects rising through the farm system.

Elias hasn't been drafting pitching, so it seems inevitable that the O's are going to have to trade or sign for proven pitching talent.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That hasn't been a consideration since 4/16.

K. 

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

K. 

Am I missing something?

The calculation for "getting another year" hasn't changed since 4/16.  So that has no impact on decisions being made in June and July.

[glenn__davis]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That hasn't been a consideration since 4/16.

Yeah, I honestly don't think Elias plays service games.  I know others believe he does.

I think he truly it just reticent to bring too many rookies up at once for performance purposes.  I don't agree with that mindset - if it were me, Frazier wouldn't have been signed and Westburg or Oritz would have started at 2B from day 1 - but I think that's the reason.