Bowden discusses the trade deadline

[Sanity Check]

With 30 teams in the majors, 20 will arguably be buyers, and maybe 10 will be sellers.  This won't be much different than free agency this past winter......the cost - in terms of prospects - to get pieces needed to upgrade a team will be off the charts, and some teams will bid this up.  I can see the Mets, Phillies, Padres, and Yankees, for example being desperate and maybe giving away some key pieces.  I don't think Elias will get into those bidding wars either.

With Urias playing well, and Frazier doing okay, I can see us looking to trade them for prospects or pitching, and making room for an Ortiz or Westburg.  If O'Hearn and Lester get hot on a more consistent basis, they could also draw some interest to make room for promotions.  That's what I think we'll see.

But I don't think we will be selling the farm to outbid the desperate teams for the key pieces that might put us over the top.

[DEOriolesfan]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is a good point. What are needs are now vs the deadline could be different based on performance and injury.

Right now, I think this team needs one more starter and one more shut down reliever in the pen.

I think they can upgrade the offense by bringing up Westburg and Cowser at some point. 

I agree completely with adding another reliever to the bullpen.

Always risky relying on rookies when you are in a playoff race. 

 

[banks703]

Rumors are swirling over the Cards' strategy at the deadline. I think that I saw it posted here a few weeks back about the O's going after Goldschmidt should the Cardinals become sellers. A great idea, no doubt. 

 

BUT.. .

 

What would it take to pry Arenado and his $144 million deal away from them? I realize that the O's have an abundance of IF prospects and at some point (quite possibly as early as this year) they will have to do something with that group, all of which consists of Gunnar, Holiday, Ortiz and Westburg as well as Mateo and Urias and some lesser hyped prospects. It seems silly to target a 32 year old 3B when the O's have soooo many players in the pipeline for the left side of the infield but Arenado is as solid and consistent as you get in MLB. He's a proven superstar (albeit underrated in my opinion). He's on the other side of 30 but has shown no signs of slowing down and could have an Adrian Beltre second half to his career for years 32-40. 

 

I realize that it's a silly thought given the guys in the system but if you could do something MEGA like Arenado and Flaherty for prospects, what would it take? The Cards have 20 year Walker who can take over third and their second best prospect is a SS. Nolan Gorman (2B) is already projecting a 35+ homer 110+ RBI season this year while OPSing about .870.. so I am not even sure if the O's match up with them as a trade partner but Arenado anchoring third base for the next four years for the O's would give them a .288/.345/.878 hitter with about 60 XBH and the best defensive third baseman in the league. 

 

I'm all about the prospects but if even one of the guys in the minors posts a career close to Arenado, I'll be surprised. Yes, the smarter move is to target elite pitching. I get that. This is just a fun question to ponder. 

[banks703]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a number of starters that make us better.

A guy like Aroldis Chapman makes the pen better and allows us to really shorten games. I would argue that making it a 6 inning game would be more important than adding a starter.

I also think another bat could definitely be needed but I do wish we would see some of these young kids up to see if they can help right now.

I mentioned AC a week or two back - I agree. He would be a strong-strong compliment to Felix and Cano. Those three guys at the end of a game, sheesh. Good luck. 

[oriolediehard]

I think our best case scenario would be that G.Rod figures it out and DL Hall also figures it out to be an effective starter.  I don't want to trade our top prospects for a pitcher who is susceptible to injury.  I would rather pick up a possible steal off the waiver wire.

[Sanity Check]

1 minute ago, oriolediehard said:

I think our best case scenario would be that G.Rod figures it out and DL Hall also figures it out to be an effective starter.  I don't want to trade our top prospects for a pitcher who is susceptible to injury.  I would rather pick up a possible steal off the waiver wire.

To "steal" someone off the waiver wire, they have to be not valuable to their own team right now, and then 26 or 27 other teams before we even get a crack at them.  I don't like the odds of that, or what that might tell us about the player if they did fall to us.

[Rbiggs2525]

Bieber and Clase. Some list of 3-4 prospects minus Holiday. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Rbiggs2525 said:

Bieber and Clase. Some list of 3-4 prospects minus Holiday. 

Big pass

[BRobinsonfan]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a number of starters that make us better.

A guy like Aroldis Chapman makes the pen better and allows us to really shorten games. I would argue that making it a 6 inning game would be more important than adding a starter.

I also think another bat could definitely be needed but I do wish we would see some of these young kids up to see if they can help right now.

I'd like to get another starter that can eat some innings and give the bullpen some relief.  An Aroldis Chapman wouldn't be a bad pickup and probably wouldn't cost as much.  

[Mr-splash]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is part of the reason why I'm not thrilled with the Orioles drafting philosophy. Drafting almost all hitters in the first ten rounds has left them woefully short in real starting pitching prospects in the system. You can't expect to just trade these hitting prospects stuck in the minors for pitching help because most teams don't want to move impact starting pitching.

On top of it, with the extra playoff spots, few teams are completely out of it and very few teams want to trade young, good, controllable starting pitching.

When you look at the system, I'll be honest, once you get outside of the top 12 or so, you start getting serious question marks and besides Rodriguez, Hall and Povich, I'm not sure there is a legitimate starting pitching prospect in the system and each of those three have question marks. 

Sure, the old adage of TINSTAAPP is a real thing because of the amount of things that can go wrong, but clearly some teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Tampa and probably Dodgers have been pretty good at over the years so it's possible. 

I've always thought it harder to find legitimate pitching then it is hitting since you can find guys like O'Hearn or Lester who can help you for a bit, but finding a starter is much, much harder. 

Until I see Elias pull if an impact starting pitcher (No I'm not counting Irvin who is more of a 4th/5th starter) trade, I'm going to question his drafting philosophy. 

Elias and company have this thought that they can develop college pitchers that they find from the 8th round on, but who hit? Arbruester is the top guy of that group but I'm still not impressed with his stuff despite the numbers at AA. 

Not surprisingly Trace Bright (5th round) last year is probably the best starting pitching prospects drafting by Elias but he has a ways to go to find consistency.

At some point Elias needs to pull the trigger and take a gamble on a young pitching prospect in the 1st or 2nd round if the right guy is there. 

He's drafting way too many 4th outfielders and hitters with questionable fielding skills in these first 5 rounds and needs to start going after some potential starting pitching prospects.

This might be the year since it's the first year he's not drafting in the top ten. I'm hoping for pitchers this year, but I'm not holding my breath because Elias has not shown much changes in his philosophy since he got here and the only pitcher he gave over a million dollars to (Baumler) can't stay healthy which probably makes him stick harder to that philosophy. 

I like Elias' strategy of drafting hitters. They carry much less injury or performance risk. 90% of top pitching prospects fail at the MLB level. Even Mariano Rivera failed. Had to be converted to the pen. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

One thing is for sure, it’s going to be a sellers market, so overpaying may need to occur. It will be interesting to see if Elias is willing to do that.

Another thing they talked about yesterday was how you may see buyer to buyer trades. Team A needs hitting and team B needs pitching.  That type of thing.
 

I don't see Elias overpaying either.  I can see a buyer-to-buyer type trade.  Something like Santander for an SP or Urias for an RP, etc...  

 

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He's drafting way too many 4th outfielders and hitters with questionable fielding skills in these first 5 rounds and needs to start going after some potential starting pitching prospects.

This might be the year since it's the first year he's not drafting in the top ten. I'm hoping for pitchers this year, but I'm not holding my breath because Elias has not shown much changes in his philosophy since he got here and the only pitcher he gave over a million dollars to (Baumler) can't stay healthy which probably makes him stick harder to that philosophy. 

As it relates to trades:  Agreed that trading is the hardest part to the 'draft the bats' strategy and could prove to be its undoing.  Especially if Elias doesn't want to trade/highly values our guys. 

I agree that we've gone overboard with the 4th OFer types.  Guys like Bradley, Strider, Smith-Shawver and plenty of others were 4th-10th rounders.  You mentioned TINSTAAPP, but the Rays have drafted quite a few SPs over the years really early over the years.  And many of them have not panned out resulting in a wasted pick.  They've covered those gaps with really good trades, good picks later on bats, and roster building (and shifting to a BP focus).  

I don't think the draft philosophy changes drastically.  But the past few years we've seen the first pitcher being taken a bit earlier.  I suspect that trend continues, but doubt it'll be at 1.17 still.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a number of starters that make us better.

A guy like Aroldis Chapman makes the pen better and allows us to really shorten games. I would argue that making it a 6 inning game would be more important than adding a starter.

I also think another bat could definitely be needed but I do wish we would see some of these young kids up to see if they can help right now.

Don't know who the starters are that are available that make the Orioles significantly better. I have said repeatedly that I think they look for an elite reliever and I am in favor of that.  Try to shorten the game like the Royals when they won.

[RVAOsFan]

If there are no good starting pitching options out there for us then I say flip one of our top prospects for a top minor league pitcher, preferably in AAA.  I know prospect for prospect trades don't happen often but teams having as many top IF prospects as we do don't happen often either.  Need to find a way to turn them into pitching and would rather a prospect than a rental.

[Ripken]

I like Stroman as a rental but, as always, that's price dependent.

 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

I mentioned AC a week or two back - I agree. He would be a strong-strong compliment to Felix and Cano. Those three guys at the end of a game, sheesh. Good luck. 

There was a thread on OH about one ex Oriole from the past and I said Zack Britton at his peak .. same reasoning.  Of course, Zack 2023 IS still available lol ..