Keep AAA stat inflation in mind when looking at our prospects

[Frobby]

I’ve just been looking at the International League batting stats.  The average hitter there has a .796 OPS this year.   Of players with at least 69 PA, there are 19 guys with an OPS over 1.000.   Another 20 have an OPS over .900.   So, it’s a really favorable offensive environment there in 2023.

32 of the 39 players who are over .900 have had some playing time in the majors.  19 of the 39 are 26+ years old.  You’ve got guys like Jake Cave and Franchy Cordero OPSing over 1.000 down there.   

So, that’s why the O’s are looking at more than the stat sheet when they consider who’s ready for a promotion.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

No.  I don't think I will.  I'll prefer to think that our AAA guys are future Hall of Famers and that Elias is a dolt for not trading Frazier, Mountcastle, Santander and anyone else in their way.

 

[Baltimorecuse]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve just been looking at the International League batting stats.  The average hitter there has a .796 OPS this year.   Of players with at least 69 PA, there are 19 guys with an OPS over 1.000.   Another 20 have an OPS over .900.   So, it’s a really favorable offensive environment there in 2023.

32 of the 39 players who are over .900 have had some playing time in the majors.  19 of the 39 are 26+ years old.  You’ve got guys like Jake Cave and Franchy Cordero OPSing over 1.000 down there.   

So, that’s why the O’s are looking at more than the stat sheet when they consider who’s ready for a promotion.  
 

AAA stats for hitters have never been a guarantee of future success.  It has something to do with the quality of pitching.

I don't think that's the issue.  I think what bugs people is why would you play someone who stinks, AND HAS NO UPSIDE POTENTIAL, over someone with upside potential who couldn't possibly do worse.  

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve just been looking at the International League batting stats.  The average hitter there has a .796 OPS this year.   Of players with at least 69 PA, there are 19 guys with an OPS over 1.000.   Another 20 have an OPS over .900.   So, it’s a really favorable offensive environment there in 2023.

32 of the 39 players who are over .900 have had some playing time in the majors.  19 of the 39 are 26+ years old.  You’ve got guys like Jake Cave and Franchy Cordero OPSing over 1.000 down there.   

So, that’s why the O’s are looking at more than the stat sheet when they consider who’s ready for a promotion.  
 

Any thoughts on why the inflation?  Juiced ball?  More hitter friendly ballparks?  An .800 OPS in Norfolk used to mean a lot. Most certainly in Ottawa and Rochester. 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think it’s that unusual for older guys who have had ML experience to have big AAA seasons.

Also, how is Harbor Park playing this year? It’s usually a pitcher friendly park. Do we have any park factors for this season?

[Baltimorecuse]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No.  I don't think I will.  I'll prefer to think that our AAA guys are future Hall of Famers and that Elias is a dolt for not trading Frazier, Mountcastle, Santander and anyone else in their way.

 

Santander, in no way, belongs with the other two.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Santander, in no way, belongs with the other two.  

Sure he does.  He's not a long term option for this team.  I can't really see him being here after this season, can you?  Especially with Cowser and Kjerstad on the horizon?  And maybe a guy like Mayo getting squeezed from the infield?

You seem to think that I'm implying that Santander is a bad player in the sense that Frazier and Mountcastle are.  I never said that.  Santander is a fine player, he's just in the way of better, younger talent.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Sure he does.  He's not a long term option for this team.  I can't really see him being here after this season, can you?  Especially with Cowser and Kjerstad on the horizon?  And maybe a guy like Mayo getting squeezed from the infield?

You seem to think that I'm implying that Santander is a bad player in the sense that Frazier and Mountcastle are.  I never said that.  Santander is a fine player, he's just in the way of better, younger talent.

 

Better, younger and less expensive.

[deward]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Better, younger and less expensive.

MIGHT be better. We're all hoping for more, but we should keep in mind that either guy turning out to be "only" as good as Santander isn't a failure scenario (per Frobby's original point). 

[sportsfan8703]

21 minutes ago, deward said:

MIGHT be better. We're all hoping for more, but we should keep in mind that either guy turning out to be "only" as good as Santander isn't a failure scenario (per Frobby's original point). 

Stowers has big AAA numbers too. 

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, deward said:

MIGHT be better. We're all hoping for more, but we should keep in mind that either guy turning out to be "only" as good as Santander isn't a failure scenario (per Frobby's original point). 

C'mon.

Look, Frazier is a low bar to hurdle.  We have to be confident that one of these guys from our vaunted, hyped, #1 farm system has to be able to put up AT LEAST what Frazier is doing.

We have to be confident that one of these guys from our vaunted, hyped, #1 farm system has to be able to put up at LEAST what Mountcastle is doing.

Santander might harder to replicate, but my answer to that is that Santander isn't the lynchpin for this team.  If we can lose Mullins for 3+ weeks and not skip a beat, I would wager to believe we could replace Santander and not skip a beat, either.

[Malike]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

C'mon.

Look, Frazier is a low bar to hurdle.  We have to be confident that one of these guys from our vaunted, hyped, #1 farm system has to be able to put up AT LEAST what Frazier is doing.

We have to be confident that one of these guys from our vaunted, hyped, #1 farm system has to be able to put up at LEAST what Mountcastle is doing.

Santander might harder to replicate, but my answer to that is that Santander isn't the lynchpin for this team.  If we can lose Mullins for 3+ weeks and not skip a beat, I would wager to believe we could replace Santander and not skip a beat, either.

I mean, if Hicks wasn't playing over his head we'd definitely be missing a beat. Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle. The question becomes do you fix what isn't broken?

Do you shake things up and get rid of Santander for Cowser, who realistically could perform a lot worse in his first stint in the big leagues?

Is that a risk this team takes at this point or do you ride it out and if the team starts to falter then try new things?

Edited June 22, 2023 by Malike

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

C'mon.

Look, Frazier is a low bar to hurdle.  We have to be confident that one of these guys from our vaunted, hyped, #1 farm system has to be able to put up AT LEAST what Frazier is doing.

We have to be confident that one of these guys from our vaunted, hyped, #1 farm system has to be able to put up at LEAST what Mountcastle is doing.

Santander might harder to replicate, but my answer to that is that Santander isn't the lynchpin for this team.  If we can lose Mullins for 3+ weeks and not skip a beat, I would wager to believe we could replace Santander and not skip a beat, either.

Add Mateo to low bar to hurdle list.

[Baltimorecuse]

50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure he does.  He's not a long term option for this team.  I can't really see him being here after this season, can you?  Especially with Cowser and Kjerstad on the horizon?  And maybe a guy like Mayo getting squeezed from the infield?

You seem to think that I'm implying that Santander is a bad player in the sense that Frazier and Mountcastle are.  I never said that.  Santander is a fine player, he's just in the way of better, younger talent.

 

Even if he is replaced in RF, he can still DH.  I want to see what he does the rest of the year.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

No.  I don't think I will.  I'll prefer to think that our AAA guys are future Hall of Famers and that Elias is a dolt for not trading Frazier, Mountcastle, Santander and anyone else in their way.

 

Somewhere on Facebook, Twitter or Roch's MASN blog a fan is posting this exact sentiment, but they're 100% serious.