Trading for a rental vs a longer term asset

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m going to be honest, I care and I certainly am very confident that the Orioles care about trading for ANY player that has been injured. Do you have any intel/information regarding the serious of the injury, how the recovery is going, when he will be back?

As I mentioned, I can’t conceive of a team with World Series aspirations trading one of their best starting pitchers over arb issues. If they want him gone that bad they will probably trade him in the offseason. However, I could see the Atalanta Braves using that as a “smokescreen” to get rid of a player they know has or will have some arm issues going forward. They’ve done things like that before. When it comes to the Braves, they are one of those teams when trades are involved (especially of good players) I always ask, is there something wrong with that guy? What do they know?

And yes he is much much better than Eduardo Rodriguez. I’m not married to the idea of acquiring Rodriguez. I would just like to see the O’s trade for a pitcher who can help us in the postseason.

Rodriguez seems to be a risk, Fried would be even more so IMO.

You've literally been championing trading for Eduardo Rodrguez for days now AND HE'S CURRENTLY INJURED!!! 

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1.  What do you mean by “recent?”  Are you limiting thst to 2023?  If not, then Dylan Cease was about as good or better all of last year than ERod was in 11 starts this year.  And, he had a 14-game stretch with an 0.66 ERA.

2.  I’m just not very inclined to believe that a pitcher who has a career 4.02 ERA, who happened to get off to a very good start this year but won’t have pitched for about two months by the time he gets back from his injury, is likely to be anything better than his career average when he returns.   This isn’t a case of catching a guy when he’s in a groove, because the injury has disrupted his groove and there’s zero assurance that he’ll come back as if nothing has happened and just continue to pitch way better than his career numbers.  

Now, all that is not to say that I’d oppose a trade for ERod. It would depend what we’d have to give up.  But I don’t see him getting a “rent-an-ace” return.   More like a “rent-a-2/3 starter” return.  
 

Recent for me means this year, especially for any pitcher, who hasn’t shown year to year consistent success (like Rodriguez and Cease).

You make a great point about the injury. If he is able to return by the break, he should be able to make around 3 starts by the deadline. I hope that is enough time for our evaluators to get a good feel for where he is.

If Cease happens to be the best that we can pull off, I’m fine with that as well. His price point should be less this year given the season that he has had as compared to last year.

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You completely missed the point of my post. We need to find the next Luzardo, not the actual Luzardo. The Marlins were able to get him for pennies on the dollar. Same with Rays when they acquired Glasnow. Buy low / sell high, not the opposite. 

I don’t see a problem with that if we can pull that off. I hope that is not the top priority though, as that proposition involves major risk. I hope that we prioritize what the guy can to on the mound to help us succeed in October first and foremost.

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You've literally been championing trading for Eduardo Rodrguez for days now AND HE'S CURRENTLY INJURED!!! 

“Championing” is a bit much. Maybe open to the idea would be more accurate.

I think that I mentioned the injury situation with him in several of my post.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Recent for me means this year, especially for any pitcher, who hasn’t shown year to year consistent success (like Rodriguez and Cease).

You make a great point about the injury. If he is able to return by the break, he should be able to make around 3 starts by the deadline. I hope that is enough time for our evaluators to get a good feel for where he is.

If Cease happens to be the best that we can pull off, I’m fine with that as well. His price point should be less this year given the season that he has had as compared to last year.

I think Cease would cost significantly more than Rodriguez because he’s under team control through 2025.   His trade value is certainly down from last year, but it’s still pretty high.  

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You've literally been championing trading for Eduardo Rodrguez for days now AND HE'S CURRENTLY INJURED!!! 

I’m not sure how much you’ve been keeping tabs on both players but I just took a quick glance. Eduardo made his first rehab start yesterday and went 4 1/3 scoreless, while Max Fried looks to be just starting some bullpen sessions.

I’m not sure how much this says where each are in the recovery process in terms of returning to what they were this season pre-injury?

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Cease would cost significantly more than Rodriguez because he’s under team control through 2025.   His trade value is certainly down from last year, but it’s still pretty high.  

I agree that he will probably cost more, how much more I don’t know. I haven’t been impressed/intrigued with what Cease has done on the mound this year as a follow-up to last year’s wonderful season.

I’m sure that if we are to acquire a good/impact starter there will be value that we have to surrender. You have to give in order to get in most cases right?

With the abundance of talent that we have in the organization, I don’t want us to take a “penny pinching” approach to talent acquisition. Not with the opportunity that is front of us.

[deward]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

3 of the 4 players that you mentioned have no trade value. 

 

They're operating with 3/5ths of a rotation at the moment... Elias will need to get creative in July.

I think Stowers has some value. Secondary piece, rather than centerpiece value, but still value.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

I think Stowers has some value. Secondary piece, rather than centerpiece value, but still value.

I'd say tertiary piece.

[deward]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say tertiary piece.

Maybe. I wouldn't be surprised if there are teams that think he could be a regular for them, especially if he comes back to Norfolk in July and tears it up. Not a star, but a reasonable regular. That has plenty of value if you can get it for the ML minimum. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, deward said:

Maybe. I wouldn't be surprised if there are teams that think he could be a regular for them, especially if he comes back to Norfolk in July and tears it up. Not a star, but a reasonable regular. That has plenty of value if you can get it for the ML minimum. 

I view him as a limited up and down guy that you stash at AAA for injury insurance.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I view him as a limited up and down guy that you stash at AAA for injury insurance.

Stowers?   I hate to pigeonhole a guy that way this early in his career.  But it may turn out that way.  

All I know is, he’s already had more of a major league career than the feature piece of the Manny Machado trade has had.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Stowers?   I hate to pigeonhole a guy that way this early in his career.  But it may turn out that way.  

All I know is, he’s already had more of a major league career than the feature piece of the Manny Machado trade has had.  
 

I agree but weird aside?

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

3 of the 4 players that you mentioned have no trade value. 

 

They're operating with 3/5ths of a rotation at the moment... Elias will need to get creative in July.

I don't agree.   Elias traded Herniaz for Irvin.   Now I agree the O's need better that Irvin but if they decide to go for a reliever then Stowers and/or Norby may be enough to get a good one.   And if the O's are willing to take on salary they could make a deal that includes any of  these 4  players.

Norby and Stowers rate better than Herniaz did at the time he was traded.

Edited June 30, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

You migt be willing to take on salary, but I bet our owner won't.

He will not do a mega deal but  I think he is willing to add to payroll to try to get deeper in the playoffs.  Elias can sell him on that.