Specific Trade Ideas

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, HelenaEngineer said:

Mets are 8.5 out of the last wild card and may be happy to dump salary and not want a whole lot in return. If the Birds can keep better prospects and just eat an expensive contract and give up a lesser prospect for 2.5 months of Robertson, that would appeal to me. They need some bullpen help.

I’ve read a handful of articles suggesting that Steve Cohen is willing to eat salary in order to get more prospect return for some of these guys that the Mets will want/need to move.

Which could create sort of an interesting conundrum where we might get some insight into the priorities of our FO (and who’s calling the shots). I would assume, from a team-building standpoint, that Elias would prefer to eat the cash and send back lesser prospects in such a deal. But I’m also quite sure that it would be music to Angelos ears to learn that someone else would be willing to pay Robertson to pitch for us. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

You’re just trying to trade off our spare parts for better players. That’s not how it works. The Orioles aren’t getting guys like Goldschmidt without dealing at least one of our more well-regarded prospects. And if you’re looking for packages, it’ll take multiple well-regarded prospects.

It depends on what the Padres/Cardinals want in return. They are not going to get premium prospects for rental players. Take this article from the trading deadline last year:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2022-deadline/

There was not a single impending FA traded for a 45+ or higher prospect. They were only traded for players with more years of control. For the rental players, it’s a lot of 35, 40, 40+ names. All of the Orioles top ~8-12 prospects are 45+ FV or better.

Goldschmidt has 1.5 yrs on his contract but as noted, is 35 and has a sizable salary next year. He could probably still net a single 45+ prospect or collection of 45/40+/40 but I don’t think he gets a 50. Even the best non-Ohtani rentals like Giolito, Ed Rod, Snell, Hader won’t either. Prospects in the QO comp pick range are generally 40+/40, so teams don’t have leverage to ask for a whole lot more than that for even the highest quality impending FAs.

So, given SD and STL are not looking to rebuild and are going to be buyers this off-season, are they better served having slightly more 40+/40 prospects or having cost-controlled established MLB players plug some holes on their roster so that they can focus offseason spending elsewhere? SD probably also thinks they can go on a run this season if they sneak into the WC with their current roster.

That said, I do think the Orioles would need to add in a some decent prospects of the 45/40+/40 variety, but not from the top of their farm system.

[Tryptamine]

I wouldn't pay attention to that article, those grades are not updated that frequently.  Several of those guys are top 100 players now and were to start the year.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1) Bullpen

2) Bullpen

3) Bullpen

4) Bullpen

Lack of consistently reliable bullpen arms outside of Cano and Bautista is going to doom the Orioles in the playoffs if Elias doesn't do something.

DL Hall might be nice from within in the farm system, but seems unlikely with Hall being at Sarasota currently. There's also pitchers like Reid Garrett and Easton Lucas, but they would require a 40 man roster move and they're not going to be impact guys.

Hall could be an impact reliever with his arm, but he is far from a sure thing with his command issues.

[RVAOsFan]

Specific Trade proposal:

Trade: Something of value

Return: Bullpen help. 2 of them that can get outs 

When: Yesterday 

Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards 

[Sydnor]

I am not good at creating fake trades, but I like the idea of something like John Rhodes or Stowers for James Karinchak.

I am aware of the amount of home runs that he has given up, but he strikes out a lot of guys and had a 2.29 FIP last year. His k/9 this year at MLB is 12.4. Last year it was 14.3. He is in the 84% in whiff percentage, 93% in K percentage, and has above average Chase rates, fastball spin, and fastball velocity. He needs to throw more curves because his 4 seam has been hit pretty hard when it has been hit. The xBA on the 4 seam is .231 and the curve has an xBA of .118. There could be some questions as to how receptive he is to coaching, and I’ve heard that’s why he is currently in AAA, so maybe that is a reason to avoid him. If the change of scenery helps him, I think he’d instantly be our 3rd best relief pitcher.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

To get the answers to those questions you would have to pick up the phone and talk with Billy Bean about that. I was just putting out the idea as a feeler, which is how many negotiations begin. 

What I do know is that Elias has established a rapport with the A's front office the Hernaiz deal. 

Billy Beane isn’t Oakland’s GM anymore.  He relinquished that role last offseason. 

[Sports Guy]

DC isn’t as good as he was early either.

Back end of the pen is the biggest need on the team. Need one or 2 more higher end options.

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

1) Bullpen

2) Bullpen

3) Bullpen

4) Bullpen

Lack of consistently reliable bullpen arms outside of Cano and Bautista is going to doom the Orioles in the playoffs if Elias doesn't do something.

DL Hall might be nice from within in the farm system, but seems unlikely with Hall being at Sarasota currently. There's also pitchers like Reid Garrett and Easton Lucas, but they would require a 40 man roster move and they're not going to be impact guys.

Hall could be an impact reliever with his arm, but he is far from a sure thing with his command issues.

At this point, I assume Hall is a non-factor for 2023.  It's not just command, it's his health/strength/lack of velo.  I wouldn't bank on him being an internal answer to any question that we have for a playoff run.  

[ScGO's]

Trade for LHP Hader and LHP Blake Snell (IF Norby, LHP Hall, LHP Rom, RHP Baumler, LHP Akin, RHP Juan De Los Santos, RHP Trace Bright) (SD will probably be asking for pitching)

Trade for RHP Scott Barlow (OF Stowers, Util Vavra, & MIF Carter Young)

Move RHP GrayRod (or Wells?) to the bullpen

SP: LHP Snell, RHP Bradish, RHP Wells, RHP Gibson, RHP Kremer

RP: RHP Bautista, LHP Hader, RHP Cano, RHP Barlow, RHP GRod, RHP Baumann, RHP Baker, LHP Coulombe

40 Man Depth: LHP Vespi, LHP Irvin, LHP Perez, LHP Zimmerman, RHP Gillaspie, RHP Bazardo

AAA Depth: RHP Kreibel, LHP Darwinzon

DL: RHP Voth, RHP Givens, RHP Tate, LHP Means

[clapdiddy]

7 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Trade for LHP Hader and LHP Blake Snell (IF Norby, LHP Hall, LHP Rom, RHP Baumler, LHP Akin, RHP Juan De Los Santos, RHP Trace Bright) (SD will probably be asking for pitching)

Trade for RHP Scott Barlow (OF Stowers, Util Vavra, & MIF Carter Young)

Move RHP GrayRod (or Wells?) to the bullpen

SP: LHP Snell, RHP Bradish, RHP Wells, RHP Gibson, RHP Kremer

RP: RHP Bautista, LHP Hader, RHP Cano, RHP Barlow, RHP GRod, RHP Baumann, RHP Baker, LHP Coulombe

40 Man Depth: LHP Vespi, LHP Irvin, LHP Perez, LHP Zimmerman, RHP Gillaspie, RHP Bazardo

AAA Depth: RHP Kreibel, LHP Darwinzon

DL: RHP Voth, RHP Givens, RHP Tate, LHP Means

I had to look at your ideas twice, thinking that we'd be giving up quite a bit for guys that are rentals.   I noticed that Barlow would have an additional year of control, which would be nice.   I think these deals could be doable.   

I know Hader is a local guy...wonder if they could extend him if they acquire him?

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

DC isn’t as good as he was early either.

Back end of the pen is the biggest need on the team. Need one or 2 more higher end options.

See, now THIS is the year where an Andrew Miller type move would make a huge impact.   And those stats on Cano are scary.  

[tntoriole]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

See, now THIS is the year where an Andrew Miller type move would make a huge impact.   And those stats on Cano are scary.  

He has not had a hitless inning in last 5 appearances and has given up run in 3 of those 5 

[tntoriole]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

See, now THIS is the year where an Andrew Miller type move would make a huge impact.   And those stats on Cano are scary.  

Some of it is just hitter/team adjustment and Cano needs to adjust back a bit but I think his stuff and control are still excellent. Good news is still no walks in last 5. 

[Bemorewins]

52 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Trade for LHP Hader and LHP Blake Snell (IF Norby, LHP Hall, LHP Rom, RHP Baumler, LHP Akin, RHP Juan De Los Santos, RHP Trace Bright) (SD will probably be asking for pitching)

Trade for RHP Scott Barlow (OF Stowers, Util Vavra, & MIF Carter Young)

Move RHP GrayRod (or Wells?) to the bullpen

SP: LHP Snell, RHP Bradish, RHP Wells, RHP Gibson, RHP Kremer

RP: RHP Bautista, LHP Hader, RHP Cano, RHP Barlow, RHP GRod, RHP Baumann, RHP Baker, LHP Coulombe

40 Man Depth: LHP Vespi, LHP Irvin, LHP Perez, LHP Zimmerman, RHP Gillaspie, RHP Bazardo

AAA Depth: RHP Kreibel, LHP Darwinzon

DL: RHP Voth, RHP Givens, RHP Tate, LHP Means

This all sounds pretty good except for Wells to the bullpen. He’s our second best started right now by a good margin. And would be even if we had Snell. There’s no one to replace him with. If you are suggesting to possibly replace him with Snell, then I feel that is a lateral move. If you are suggesting we can replace him with Grayson, then I feel that means we are going backwards.

We need improvement for the pen and rotation. I think Hader can slot in the 8th and move Cano into the 7th.

The only thing I have some questions in terms of the addition is Barlow. Why him and not say a Robertson? Barlow appears to be only a very slight upgrade to Baker/Baumann in terms of how he has pitched this year. Maybe you have more insight/intel than me seeing how I rarely watch Royals games unless they are playing a team we are competing with an the O’s aren’t playing.