Could Elias call up our 19-year old SS phenom?

[Alasdaire]

If a guy can handle the jump from A+ to AA and maintain a 1.000 OPS, I don't think there's anything that's he's going to see at AAA that is going to expose a hole in his bat. AA is the gut check in the minors in terms of talent, and it isn't fazing Jackson whatsoever. Some guys are just so good that the only pitchers in the world who are going to knock them down a peg are in the MLB.

I think AAA is more of a litmus test as to whether a player can sustain production over the long term, ie prove it. Perhaps that's why Jordan Westburg and now Joey Ortiz are spending so many PAs at AAA even when there has been/is room for them on the roster: they need to show their eye-popping numbers aren't anomalous.

But I don't think Holliday is going to be asked to "prove it" with a large sample size of AAA at bats. In which case AAA really isn't going to say much about him.

The case for Jackson at AAA would be if he needs to rep his defense.

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

If a guy can handle the jump from A+ to AA and maintain a 1.000 OPS, I don't think there's anything that's he's going to see at AAA that is going to expose a hole in his bat. AA is the gut check in the minors in terms of talent, and it isn't fazing Jackson whatsoever. Some guys are just so good that the only pitchers in the world who are going to knock them down a peg are in the MLB.

I think AAA is more of a litmus test as to whether a player can sustain production over the long term, ie prove it. Perhaps that's why Jordan Westburg and now Joey Ortiz are spending so many PAs at AAA even when there has been/is room for them on the roster: they need to show their eye-popping numbers aren't anomalous.

But I don't think Holliday is going to be asked to "prove it" with a large sample size of AAA at bats. In which case AAA really isn't going to say much about him.

The case for Jackson at AAA would be if he needs to rep his defense.

I think if there’s been a player who would be the exception to Elias’s method on promotions, it’s Holliday. He can hit MLB pitching today. I just don’t know where they put him in the field. He’s not better than Mateo(though I think this should be a no factor), Gunnar, Westburg or Urias in the field.  

[tntoriole]

.386 BA, 3 hrs. 1.029 OPS in 74 AA at bats .. impressive 

i would love to see him get a cup of coffee this year and be part of this winning season. 
 

Not that this factors in, but his story, son of Matt Holliday, 19 year old, phenom, in the playoff chase would make his promotion a HUGE national media sensation. 

[Roll Tide]

On 8/8/2023 at 2:35 PM, Greg Pappas said:

Not in my eyes.  But there may be posters that disagree.

Bad decision imo ….Fans are fickle

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I think if there’s been a player who would be the exception to Elias’s method on promotions, it’s Holliday. He can hit MLB pitching today. I just don’t know where they put him in the field. He’s not better than Mateo(though I think this should be a no factor), Gunnar, Westburg or Urias in the field.  

It's just so hard to tell where a prospect is defensively since you're not watching them every day, they're being moved around, and the statistics are really not helpful.

I can't see them considering him anywhere other than 2B. The people suggesting SS don't have an appreciation for how insanely difficult of a position that is to play. And I doubt they would put him at 3B given that he only recently got his first appearance there.

2B is probably manageable from a physical standpoint for Jackson right now. But I do worry about the situational awareness/baseball IQ due to inexperience. In the playoffs, one mistake can end your season.

[banks703]

15 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

It's just so hard to tell where a prospect is defensively since you're not watching them every day, they're being moved around, and the statistics are really not helpful.

I can't see them considering him anywhere other than 2B. The people suggesting SS don't have an appreciation for how insanely difficult of a position that is to play. And I doubt they would put him at 3B given that he only recently got his first appearance there.

2B is probably manageable from a physical standpoint for Jackson right now. But I do worry about the situational awareness/baseball IQ due to inexperience. In the playoffs, one mistake can end your season.

I’ve beaten this to death but in my eyes 2B is where he ultimately ends up at the ML level. There are at least four guys in the system who are superior defensively at SS, one being the recently turned 22 year old current ML starter who is playing elite level defense (and previous number 1 rated prospect I might add). We just have some folks who can’t look beyond the 1:1 draft and current prospect ranking to reconcile that defense does matter and if Gunnar and Holliday are anywhere close to each other as overall players and Gunnar is the superior defender at SS, they aren’t moving Gunnar for Holliday. I can’t understand why folks can’t comprehend that.

Jackson Holliday is going to hit regardless of where he plays in the field. Barring some unforeseen developments with his defensive game and unless he can add 8-10 mph to his throws, he’s not supplanting Gunnar at SS.

Now, a case could be made for Joey Ortiz’s defense pushing Gunnar off of the position but that kid can’t even get run in Baltimore because of their infatuation with Mateo (who, for the record is my second favorite Oriole). 

[Pickles]

Holliday will come up around mid-season next year.

Too late to win ROY next year, and taking away his eligibility to win it in 2025, giving the team 6.5 years of him and 7 pennant races.

That will give him 60-70 games at AA and AAA a piece.

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Holliday will come up around mid-season next year.

Too late to win ROY next year, and taking away his eligibility to win it in 2025, giving the team 6.5 years of him and 7 pennant races.

That will give him 60-70 games at AA and AAA a piece.

This could be the route they go with him but the kid is going to hit from day 1. I think it’s possible that he breaks camp with the big club because: say he rakes in that half year and shows that he’s clearly the star that everyone hopes he becomes and finishes second the ROY voting. The O’s lose a year of control and don’t get the pick. Adley’s injury in ST cost them that pick (I think if he had been active from Day 1 he wins ROY last year). They broke camp with Gunnar on the roster for the same reason. I think they’ll at least entertain the thought with Holliday for this but also because the kid is a special, pure hitter who can contribute with the bat right now. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

This could be the route they go with him but the kid is going to hit from day 1. I think it’s possible that he breaks camp with the big club because: say he rakes in that half year and shows that he’s clearly the star that everyone hopes he becomes and finishes second the ROY voting. The O’s lose a year of control and don’t get the pick. Adley’s injury in ST cost them that pick (I think if he had been active from Day 1 he wins ROY last year). They broke camp with Gunnar on the roster for the same reason. I think they’ll at least entertain the thought with Holliday for this but also because the kid is a special, pure hitter who can contribute with the bat right now. 

They might go this route.  I doubt it though.

It's not just about Holliday.  It's about who is in front of him too.

[ArtVanDelay]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Holliday will come up around mid-season next year.

Too late to win ROY next year, and taking away his eligibility to win it in 2025, giving the team 6.5 years of him and 7 pennant races.

That will give him 60-70 games at AA and AAA a piece.

That would be incredibly stupid and probably cost us an extra first round pick, so sounds about right for this organization.  He should be up on OD at the latest. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

That would be incredibly stupid and probably cost us an extra first round pick, so sounds about right for this organization.  He should be up on OD at the latest. 

You're right.  Elias is incredibly stupid and typically operates in an incredibly stupid manner.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Pickles

[ArtVanDelay]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're right.  Elias is incredibly stupid and typically operates in an incredibly stupid manner.

I’m not talking about Elias. 

[Pickles]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

I’m not talking about Elias. 

Elias is making the decision about when to bring up  Holliday.

This isn't some MASN thing.

[banks703]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

They might go this route.  I doubt it though.

It's not just about Holliday.  It's about who is in front of him too.

For sure but I’ve speculated all season that JW will be dealt at some point. Some combo of Ortiz, JW, Norby and Urias will be dealt. They have to be. Norby and Ortiz are wasting years in Norfolk and their trade value continues to decline the longer they are there. Plus, there is a waive of younger MI prospects coming.

I watch A LOT of Norfolk’s games and go to a lot of Bowie’s games. My unpopular opinion is that all of Gunnar, JW and Ortiz are better defenders and fit better long term on the left-side of the infield than does Holliday. Yes, there’s an age factor and yes he can improve a lot being only 19 but there are also physical tools that they each possess (like arm strength) that Holliday is probably not going to be able to make up ground. I just see him at 2B where he could become one of the game’s best quite literally from day 1 and within a short amount of time could be the game’s best overall player at 2B. 

Imagine having a defense up the middle of Adley, Gunnar, Holliday and EBJ for a four year stretch at close to league minimum because they’ll all have debuted within three-ish years of each other. It’s. Nuts. 

Edited August 12, 2023 by banks703

[ArtVanDelay]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Elias is making the decision about when to bring up  Holliday.

This isn't some MASN thing.

Elias may hold him down because he knows ownership won’t make an effort to extend him.  Or he may be flat out told to hold him down until mid-season.  I don’t think we can rule anything out with John Angelos.