Colorado Series

[Baltimorecuse]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, being me, I had to test this a little.  I looked at every team that finished under .400 from 2013-22, except for the shortened 2020 season.  There were 26 such teams.  I compared how they did in the first 108 games (2/3 of the season) with the final 54 (1/3).   

Of the 26 teams, 17 did worse in the final third than they’d done in the previous two thirds, 7 teams did better, 2 did exactly the same.  On average, the teams were 2.1 games worse than “expected” based on the record at the two-thirds mark.  That’s a drop in winning percentage of about .040 in the final third.   

So, I’d say the effect exists, but it’s not huge.  

The worst discrepancy was the 2017 Tigers, who were 51-57 at the two-thirds mark, but went 13-40 the rest in the way, 12.5 games worse than “expected.”  The biggest gainer was the 2018 Royals, who were 34-74 at the two-thirds mark, but went 24-30 in the final third, allowing the Orioles to fall below them and get the first pick in the draft.

 

I've got your number now, Frobby.  You're an AI bot with a huge baseball database.  

[Mooreisbetter27]

We get game 1 and another series where we aren’t swept. (Is it 81? 82?)

What a laser by Gunnar to give us the lead in the 8th. Really good at bat by Hays to get on before him too. 

[DirtyBird]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, being me, I had to test this a little.  I looked at every team that finished under .400 from 2013-22, except for the shortened 2020 season.  There were 26 such teams.  I compared how they did in the first 108 games (2/3 of the season) with the final 54 (1/3).   

Of the 26 teams, 17 did worse in the final third than they’d done in the previous two thirds, 7 teams did better, 2 did exactly the same.  On average, the teams were 2.1 games worse than “expected” based on the record at the two-thirds mark.  That’s a drop in winning percentage of about .040 in the final third.   

So, I’d say the effect exists, but it’s not huge.  

The worst discrepancy was the 2017 Tigers, who were 51-57 at the two-thirds mark, but went 13-40 the rest in the way, 12.5 games worse than “expected.”  The biggest gainer was the 2018 Royals, who were 34-74 at the two-thirds mark, but went 24-30 in the final third, allowing the Orioles to fall below them and get the first pick in the draft.

 

You’re sick

[Hallas]

It's comical how bad the Rockies pen is.  They aren't a terrible team if their bullpen pitches at a level higher than the Bowie Baysox.

 

You could call it bad luck but after watching the Rays tee off on their bullpen, and then us doing the same.... way too much smoke.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Hallas said:

It's comical how bad the Rockies pen is.  They aren't a terrible team if their bullpen pitches at a level higher than the Bowie Baysox.

 

You could call it bad luck but after watching the Rays tee off on their bullpen, and then us doing the same.... way too much smoke.

Their offense has an OPS+ of 83.   The starters have an ERA that’s 0.80 runs/game worse than their bullpen, whereas MLB-wide starters do 0.28 runs/game worse. So yes, they are a terrible team regardless of what their bullpen does.  

[DirtyBird]

On 8/25/2023 at 1:42 PM, Moose Milligan said:

And then they laid down for the rest of those games.

I'm with @Sports Guyon this one, I'm not expecting a sweep but we should expect to take 2/3 here.  

I expect a sweep

[Fan4Life]

On 8/25/2023 at 6:12 PM, Frobby said:

So, being me, I had to test this a little.  I looked at every team that finished under .400 from 2013-22, except for the shortened 2020 season.  There were 26 such teams.  I compared how they did in the first 108 games (2/3 of the season) with the final 54 (1/3).   

Of the 26 teams, 17 did worse in the final third than they’d done in the previous two thirds, 7 teams did better, 2 did exactly the same.  On average, the teams were 2.1 games worse than “expected” based on the record at the two-thirds mark.  That’s a drop in winning percentage of about .040 in the final third.   

So, I’d say the effect exists, but it’s not huge.  

The worst discrepancy was the 2017 Tigers, who were 51-57 at the two-thirds mark, but went 13-40 the rest in the way, 12.5 games worse than “expected.”  The biggest gainer was the 2018 Royals, who were 34-74 at the two-thirds mark, but went 24-30 in the final third, allowing the Orioles to fall below them and get the first pick in the draft.

 

You'd probably have to dig deeper and see if the 17 teams that did worse were more active in moving players than the other 9 before drawing a conclusion. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

You'd probably have to dig deeper and see if the 17 teams that did worse were more active in moving players than the other 9 before drawing a conclusion. 

Feel free.  I’ve satisfied my own curiosity.

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I expect a sweep

Flaherty????

[RavensNOsGuy]

Vegas has us at -218 today. I won’t throw out a jinx, but look at our games on Sundays since May. 

[rm5678]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Flaherty????

Against Ty Blach (former Oriole who has never been very good) and the struggling Rockies bullpen.

[Moshagge3]

It's nice to win the series, but not a great showing. After a Toronto series that left you thinking "Damn, we could have swept them," a series that leaves you thinking, "Damn, it's a good thing we weren't swept." The O's needed an overturned catcher violation and some pretty flukey hits to win their two games. I hope they are a little crisper against the White Sox.

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

It's nice to win the series, but not a great showing. After a Toronto series that left you thinking "Damn, we could have swept them," a series that leaves you thinking, "Damn, it's a good thing we weren't swept." The O's needed an overturned catcher violation and some pretty flukey hits to win their two games. I hope they are a little crisper against the White Sox.

They didn’t play great this series. It’s also baseball. Going to have some off days. 

[RavensNOsGuy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

They didn’t play great this series. It’s also baseball. Going to have some off days. 

I’ll be more concerned if we see this over the next couple of days. Need a couple of “bust out the whoopin stick” games where we score 6+ runs against a Sox team that is probably as bad as the Rockies. But keep getting 2/3 and it’s hard to complain too much. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, RavensNOsGuy said:

I’ll be more concerned if we see this over the next couple of days. Need a couple of “bust out the whoopin stick” games where we score 6+ runs against a Sox team that is probably as bad as the Rockies. But keep getting 2/3 and it’s hard to complain too much. 

Saw on postgame Hyde basically summed up the series saying they didn’t swing bats well this weekend.