Win the Division this week.

[Winning_Season]

Call me crazy, but I don't want to have the division all but wrapped up by the Tampa series. For drama and entertainment value I'm looking forward to a classic late September battle royal between two teams gunning for the division title... with the O's coming out on top of course.

[sportsfan8703]

A sweep. Just what the masses demanded. 3.5 game lead. Tough series coming up. 

[sportsfan8703]

14-4 our last 18 and only gained 1.5 games. That’s tough. 

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I imagine run differential has a lot to do with it but that’s just a guess.

I just don’t think they adjust their model in-season.   They decide before the year starts how good the players are and how good the team is, and if reality is different than that 80% of the way through the season, they assume their pre-season assessment was correct and that the in-season results are an anomaly that should be disregarded.   That might make some sense 25-50% of the way through a season, but at some point it becomes absurd.  

[DirtyBird]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

14-4 our last 18 and only gained 1.5 games. That’s tough. 

Not as tough as 13-5 and losing 1.5 games

[glenn__davis]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Not as tough as 13-5 and losing 1.5 games

Haha yeah, I was going to say, as frustrating as it seems for us I'm sure the Tampa fan must be even more annoyed.

Edited September 7, 2023 by glenn__davis

[ledzepp8]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just don’t think they adjust their model in-season.   They decide before the year starts how good the players are and how good the team is, and if reality is different than that 80% of the way through the season, they assume their pre-season assessment was correct and that the in-season results are an anomaly that should be disregarded.   That might make some sense 25-50% of the way through a season, but at some point it becomes absurd.  

I have similar thoughts. They seem like they never want to be wrong. Even if they look at run differential and Pythagorean w/l, that still says the Orioles should "only" be a .575 winning percentage team. Where does the projection that they should play .500 the rest of the way come into the picture? They've played 139 games of .633 baseball and now all of a sudden they're only going to be .500 the last 23 games because fangraphs made a preseason prediction that they would be bad?

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

I have similar thoughts. They seem like they never want to be wrong. Even if they look at run differential and Pythagorean w/l, that still says the Orioles should "only" be a .575 winning percentage team. Where does the projection that they should play .500 the rest of the way come into the picture? They've played 139 games of .633 baseball and now all of a sudden they're only going to be .500 the last 23 games because fangraphs made a preseason prediction that they would be bad?

Needless to say, I don’t think it’s specific to the Orioles or biased against them.  It’s just really inflexible and not realistic.   

FWIW, Vegas has the O’s with the 4th best odds to win the WS, at +900.   I’m not sure I fully understand how that converts to percentage odds, but I think it’s basically 10% or 10 to 1.   
 

[dystopia]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Needless to say, I don’t think it’s specific to the Orioles or biased against them.  It’s just really inflexible and not realistic.   

FWIW, Vegas has the O’s with the 4th best odds to win the WS, at +900.   I’m not sure I fully understand how that converts to percentage odds, but I think it’s basically 10% or 10 to 1.   
 

So what other teams does Fangraphs give this type of treatment to?

[Number5]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

14-4 our last 18 and only gained 1.5 games. That’s tough. 

Tougher on the guys chasing us!  

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

So what other teams does Fangraphs give this type of treatment to?

Why would Fangraphs be biased against the Orioles?

No one has ever explained to me why they would purposely dismiss the team.

[Sanity Check]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would Fangraphs be biased against the Orioles?

No one has ever explained to me why they would purposely dismiss the team.

Come on, Corn.......Legend has it that everyone is biased against the Orioles.  You must be new here....  

[Bahama O's Fan]

It would be nice to be up four games on the Rays after today. 

[Malike]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

14-4 our last 18 and only gained 1.5 games. That’s tough. 

I mean as good as Tampa was to start the year, I believe we were never more than 4.5 back all season. I bet they were thinking 30-9 and only 4.5 games up.

[NCRaven]

The Texas fade has already begun.  Tampa can’t be far behind.