Three 2022-23 developments that fundamentally changed the outlook for this team

[Frobby]

At the beginning of 2022, I could not have foreseen the quantum leap that the Orioles have made, even though we could see guys like Adley, Grayson and Hall coming down the pike.  While there are countless little things that contributed to what’s happened, for the there are three huge things:

1.   The development of Gunnar Henderson.  Yes, he was a top 100 prospect coming into the 2022 season.  But absolutely nobody foresaw that in a few months he’d be the consensus no. 1 prospect in baseball, or the favorite for 2023 rookie of the year, which now looks like a fait accomplis.

2.  The development of Kyle Bradish.  Coming into 2022, he was not on any top 100 lists, and was seen as someone who might be a “five and dive” back of the rotation starter, or maybe a reliever.  Now, he has the third best ERA of any qualified starter and is definitely a TOR guy.

3.  The emergence of Felix Bautista.  He had a breakout year in the minors in ‘21, but I don’t think we were hoping for anything more than a useful bullpen piece who might be pretty erratic due to control issues.  Instead, he’s been a very good closer.

There are lots of things I could cite, but I never saw these three remotely coming.

 

[ChipTait]

Of the three you mention, Bradish is the big surprise for me.  Dude has been amazing!

Gunnar, it was somewhat expected.  Felix, I hope he's able to come back healthy and show this wasn't a 14-month fluke.  But Bradish has really exceeded all expectations.

[Matt Bennett]

Honorable mention to Dean Kremer who many including myself had written off after a disastrous 2021 season. Giving up homers, walking too many, not striking out enough. Couldn't get anyone out. Crappy performance in AAA too. Looking like a bust. 

Now staring a 108 ERA+ for 2022-2023. 

The manner in which Bautista and Bradish have dominated have been surprising, but we saw "it" almost immediately with them. Kremer's success was very surprising to me. Something clicked for him. 

[dystopia]

Grayson too. His big bounce back in July helped this team overtake the Rays for first and stay there. 

[wildcard]

I think the organizational development that Elias began in November 2018  is at the backbone of everything that has happened.   Bringing Sig and Holt with him. Hiring Hyde.   Matt Blood.   Leading the draft selections.

He retooled  the minors methods and personnel. Link the majors and the minors.  Analytics based.    That is what set the table for the prospects  and veterans to improve so rapidly.   Having everyone one pulling in the same direction led by a GM  is something that the O's have not in a very long time.

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Grayson too. His big bounce back in July helped this team overtake the Rays for first and stay there. 

The reason I didn’t include Grayson is that at the beginning of 2022 I was expecting him to be a very good major league pitcher by now.  He was the highest rated pitching prospect in baseball at the end of ‘21, and I’d personally watched him dominate a couple of games. 

[Sports Guy]

I think my “surprise” is different.

This is the year I expected them to make the playoffs, had you asked me a few years ago. I believed in what Elias was doing and I believed in the existing talent.

Where my surprise comes in is that I didn’t think they did enough in the offseason to augment the existing talent to win this year. 
 

A few years ago, I would have expected a bigger investment in the ML product this year and I thought that, combined with the existing talent, was enough for the team to win. 
 

So my surprise is that, despite the failure to do that, this team overcame it and was this good.

I think Frobby’s post nails it with 2 and 3. Gunnar was trending in this direction, so I’m not surprised there. But Bradish and Bautista definitely changed things and then you put a guy like Kremer on there who has been steady enough and those are the types of development successes that have made the lack of spending enough to where they can win without it.

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At the beginning of 2022

This is the key to the thread topic.

"Lift off' has teeth!  We mocked in at last year's trade deadline.  We mocked it even more when he signed Gibson and Frazier.  Elias knows how to pick 'em (Lyles, Gibson, Frazier, Perez, Bautista, Cano, O'Hearn, Hicks, etc, etc, etc) and when to flick 'em (thinking about how Lyles hasn't done well in 2023, Mancini, Lopez). And yes, there's a few misses in there too.   

The matchups:  2021 was saw scabs while the underlying healing took place.  2022 was had a few guys we liked but was a matter of figuring out who sticks (like Gutierrez, Urias, Mateo).  But the main theme was riding the veteranosity bus and we started to see the younger talent force it's way up the food chain.  2023 we saw Gunnar given a long leash, but we saw others with much shorter leashes (Grayson, Ortiz, Cowser, a host in the BP).  Once the team was established as a legit contender for the throne, we ramped up the matchups for the W (O'Hearn, less Mateo).  We really didn't see that in 2021 or the degree in 2022.  Until 2022 we just knew the tear down portion of the rebuild.  Is there a next level?

International spending:  Basallo is a stud leading the way for the baby international O's!  He's backed up with Bencosme, Braylin, Deleon, Sosa, Arias, Almeyda, Palacios, etc., etc. does!  Nearly 10% of Tony's top 40 power rankings are international signees.  And a bigger percentage of the bubble guys.  There was a thread I think this past offseason asking when the international guys start making an impact at the ML level.  Many of us said something like 4-5 years because of their ages (16-17).  Well, Basallo's knocking in 2024.

 

I'd also add Wells to the list players.  He gets a gold star for his first half both seasons while having low expectations heading into 2022.  When his arm isn't fatigued, he's a strong #3 SP (probably a #2 on many teams).  

Kjerstad's health - Drafted in 2020.  Diagnosed with myocarditis during Covid quarantines.  Many people had written him off or at least said something like "whatever he provided is a bonus" especially after he missed the first few weeks in 2022 after pulling a hammy in ST.  And then he crushed A+ ball, struggled in AA, and obliterated AFL in 2022.  And didn't stop until he earned his way to Baltimore and provided an insurance run last night.  Obviously, not as meaningful for the 2023 O's but puts another shot on goal as far as LHH power OFers go that was an unknown before the 2022 season.

[George Zuverink]

4 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Honorable mention to Dean Kremer who many including myself had written off after a disastrous 2021 season. Giving up homers, walking too many, not striking out enough. Couldn't get anyone out. Crappy performance in AAA too. Looking like a bust. 

Now staring a 108 ERA+ for 2022-2023. 

The manner in which Bautista and Bradish have dominated have been surprising, but we saw "it" almost immediately with them. Kremer's success was very surprising to me. Something clicked for him. 

Disagree that we saw it almost immediately  with Bradish. Look at his first half 2022 and compare the number of quality starts in the two seasons.

[Hallas]

I kind of disagree on Bautista not because Bautista himself wasn't a pleasant surprise (he obviously was) but the team has found some secret sauce (like diet coke Tampa Bay) for turning JAG pitching arms into legitimate relievers.  So in the sense that the Orioles found their best reliever since Britton it's a bit surprising, but it feels like it's not all that surprising that they developed relief pitchers.

[Malike]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think my “surprise” is different.

This is the year I expected them to make the playoffs, had you asked me a few years ago. I believed in what Elias was doing and I believed in the existing talent.

Where my surprise comes in is that I didn’t think they did enough in the offseason to augment the existing talent to win this year. 
 

A few years ago, I would have expected a bigger investment in the ML product this year and I thought that, combined with the existing talent, was enough for the team to win. 
 

So my surprise is that, despite the failure to do that, this team overcame it and was this good.

I think Frobby’s post nails it with 2 and 3. Gunnar was trending in this direction, so I’m not surprised there. But Bradish and Bautista definitely changed things and then you put a guy like Kremer on there who has been steady enough and those are the types of development successes that have made the lack of spending enough to where they can win without it.

Nobody but like 8 people thought they would win even 90 games this year according to the poll. I don't like going back and digging that up, but I think you chose them to win high 70's, that's not a playoff team.

[Natty]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I'd also add Wells to the list players.

 

Wells was our best starter on the first half. Not pitching for 10 days, because of the break, messed him up. 

Now he is perfect in relief. I know sss. Man I hope he keeps it up. I wonder if he will get a start? 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think my “surprise” is different.

This is the year I expected them to make the playoffs, had you asked me a few years ago. I believed in what Elias was doing and I believed in the existing talent.

Where my surprise comes in is that I didn’t think they did enough in the offseason to augment the existing talent to win this year. 
 

A few years ago, I would have expected a bigger investment in the ML product this year and I thought that, combined with the existing talent, was enough for the team to win. 
 

So my surprise is that, despite the failure to do that, this team overcame it and was this good.

I think Frobby’s post nails it with 2 and 3. Gunnar was trending in this direction, so I’m not surprised there. But Bradish and Bautista definitely changed things and then you put a guy like Kremer on there who has been steady enough and those are the types of development successes that have made the lack of spending enough to where they can win without it.

I expected them to hold serve or fall back a little bit because they didn't really add anything in the offseason and I didn't think we could count on the pitching to be enough. And teams that improve by 30 wins in a season usually fall back at least a little the next. The 1990 Orioles were 76-85, and the 2013 Orioles declined by eight wins.

When they signed O'Hearn I assumed that either he would spend the year in Norfolk, or they were nuts. I totally missed that his no-shift splits were really pretty good with the Royals.

[Yossarian]

45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I expected them to hold serve or fall back a little bit because they didn't really add anything in the offseason and I didn't think we could count on the pitching to be enough. And teams that improve by 30 wins in a season usually fall back at least a little the next. The 1990 Orioles were 76-85, and the 2013 Orioles declined by eight wins.

When they signed O'Hearn I assumed that either he would spend the year in Norfolk, or they were nuts. I totally missed that his no-shift splits were really pretty good with the Royals.

Regarding O'Hearn:  I knew he had a little power when he was in KC but he never struck me as a high batting average guy.   His exit velocity, barreled ball %age, ability to hit the gaps,  and high batting average really shocked me.  I hope he keeps it up.   He has been a valuable asset and he seems to really enjoy this team and the chance he's been given.  

[Uli2001]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

At the beginning of 2022, I could not have foreseen the quantum leap that the Orioles have made, even though we could see guys like Adley, Grayson and Hall coming down the pike.  While there are countless little things that contributed to what’s happened, for the there are three huge things:

1.   The development of Gunnar Henderson.  Yes, he was a top 100 prospect coming into the 2022 season.  But absolutely nobody foresaw that in a few months he’d be the consensus no. 1 prospect in baseball, or the favorite for 2023 rookie of the year, which now looks like a fait accomplis.

2.  The development of Kyle Bradish.  Coming into 2022, he was not on any top 100 lists, and was seen as someone who might be a “five and dive” back of the rotation starter, or maybe a reliever.  Now, he has the third best ERA of any qualified starter and is definitely a TOR guy.

3.  The emergence of Felix Bautista.  He had a breakout year in the minors in ‘21, but I don’t think we were hoping for anything more than a useful bullpen piece who might be pretty erratic due to control issues.  Instead, he’s been a very good closer.

There are lots of things I could cite, but I never saw these three remotely coming.

 

Agreed on 1-3 but I would say that this team gelled and is playing at a higher level than the sum of its parts. In other words, it's the darn chemistry, which you can't sign or trade for.