Dean Kremer: Underrated? Overrated?

[Oriole1940]

I will be disappointed if in 2024 he does not have an  ERA under 4.00.

[Say O!]

If put in the context of his salary and years of control left, how can Kremer be anything other than vastly under-rated?  Loads of surplus value.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Kremer is a valuable commodity for being established, durable and under team control. He also has a solid 4S/2S/cutter combo and knows how to pitch well with those, so there’s some potential there if he’s ever able to get more out of his offspeed. Maybe he was starting to get there in the second half this year. 

However, we now have pretty big chunks of IP with his ERA far outpacing his peripherals. If you’re a person who believes the peripherals have better predictive ability then it’s hard to see him as being more than a back of the rotation starter.

For me, he’s not a guy that you want to go into the season with him penciled into your top 4 playoff rotation. He’s a solid 5 on a playoff team. That’s valuable with his contract status, but they badly need to bring in at least one guy to push him down the depth chart. 

[Jammer7]

I wondered what his home/away splits would show. I expected his numbers at home to be much better, not that they were bad. I think a solid 4/5 starter on a playoff team is fair. The K rate is not bad, but if he were to develop a true debt and miss pitch, like a split, maybe he breaks out to a solid #3. 

Some strange numbers with a few minor surprises. Half a run higher ERA at home 4.38 vs. 3.73. Higher HR rate at home. Lower BA against .240 at home vs. .274 on road. Higher WHIP on road 1.39 vs. 1.26 at home. A 20% higher ground ball rate at home.

The HR rate and half run higher ERA was a little surprising. 
 

https://www.mlb.com/player/dean-kremer-665152?stats=splits-r-pitching-mlb&year=2023

[ChosenOne21]

I think he's a true talent 4.25-4.40 ERA guy who has shown some ability to outpitch his peripherals. I also think there's a 25% chance he finds more consistency and is a sub-4 ERA true talent guy. 

I'm not ready to anoint him as a Jeremy Guthrie Outpitch Your Peripherals For Most Of Your Career Until You Suddenly Don't type just yet, but last year did provide additional evidence he could be that guy.

[KojiSplit]

Kremer with his 7th straight win against the yanks (per O’s radio).

[PHRESH]

2 hours ago, KojiSplit said:

Kremer with his 7th straight win against the yanks (per O’s radio).

Dude's a Yankee killer. 

I like him as an innings eater sp but I don't think he'll ever be a great pitcher. I recall looking at his stats thru one, two, three times they the lineup and seeing him do very well the first two times. I feel like he could be a stud long reliever. 

[Malike]

3 hours ago, KojiSplit said:

Kremer with his 7th straight win against the yanks (per O’s radio).

Six, he tied Palmer. Flanagan has seven.

Edited 7 hours ago by Malike

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, PHRESH said:

Dude's a Yankee killer. 

I like him as an innings eater sp but I don't think he'll ever be a great pitcher. I recall looking at his stats thru one, two, three times they the lineup and seeing him do very well the first two times. I feel like he could be a stud long reliever. 

I think he’s a fine back end guy. When he gets on a roll he can’t be really good. But, he seems to have a phase every year where he’s not good. I’m not sure he has the stuff to be a great pitcher. But, he’s plenty good and most would be pretty happy if he can find a way to make the lows shorter.

[gtman55]

Dean's a solid 3rd or 4th starter. He's still learning to pitch and I see big improvements in his game. And I like the fact he wants to pitch 200 innings. He's a real bulldog and fields his position well.

[Just Regular]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

Six, he tied Palmer. Flanagan has seven.

Let's go for 8.   If his teammates set him up in the ALWC, he would perhaps start twice in the ALDS.

I'm curious to see if they give him an inning or two in Minnesota.     Next week Thursday Game 3 would be 8-9 days rest.    I'm not sure if SIGBOT would counsel using that extra rest to be ready tho throw the zippiest fastballs you've ever thrown, or have an extra game to keep your touch.

It might be beneficial for several of Povich, Suarez or even Kremer to have a relief appearance so they've experienced it in case Jacob Webb is an ALWC Game 3 opener or anything like that.    Nestor and Stroman on the other side have already done so.

[Frobby]

Kremer is one of these guys who gets dismissed by a lot of people, but will probably get something like 4/$80 mm when he hits free agency if he stays healthy.

[dzorange]

Kremer is solidly an MLB level starting pitcher. I don't know if I'd have higher or lower expectations then that. But I'm comfortable knowing that he's in the rotation. My thoughts on him haven't changed since the start of the season.

Edited 1 hour ago by dzorange

[theobird]

Very solid and reliable #4 starter. A real bulldog, and I’m not scared of him pitching in a big game. Always seems to rise to the occasion. 

[BRobinsonfan]

Over the last 3 seasons, he's shown us who he is.  A solid back-of-the-rotation starter.  He gets underrated by those who expect him to be more than that and he gets underrated by those who think there's no value in that.