Cease vs everyone else

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Just nitpicking here, but I think Hall is the headliner for Milwaukee since they view him as a SP and they have a Cy Young sized SP hole. He's the key of the trade. 

It might be an open question as to who Mil values more- I still think Ortiz- but there's no doubt Ortiz was the headlining prospect.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It might be an open question as to who Mil values more- I still think Ortiz- but there's no doubt Ortiz was the headlining prospect.

I actually ended up deleting that post but you beat me to the reply haha. After thinking about it some more, I settled on the idea that I don't think the deal gets done without either player. The package is perfect for MIL. 

But yeah, Ortiz being the SS and having less question marks than Hall... it's pretty headliner-y. 

Edited February 2 by interloper

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I actually ended up deleting that post but you beat me to the reply haha. After thinking about it some more, I settled on the idea that I don't think the deal gets done without either player. The package is perfect for MIL. 

But yeah, Ortiz being the SS and having less question marks than Hall... it's pretty headliner-y. 

My bigger point is that not only were the WS deranged even mentioning the names Basallo and Mayo, they were equally deluded about Cowser and Kjerstad.  Now, noone here was ever going to move Basallo or Mayo, but almost everyone was willing to give a least Cowser AND Ortiz, and MORE!, for Cease.  It was always an aburd overpay, and I'm glad that Elias has more discipline than the majority of this board.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Westburg/Ortiz were really the only prospects that were blocked from long term starting jobs. The only logjam that should have been alleviated was trading one of them. Now that they’ve done that, there’s no reason to further consider trading for Cease.

Guys like Norby and Stowers are still thoroughly blocked from starting opportunities but they are only secondary/tertiary pieces in a deal. They can also provide value as bench/depth players for the Orioles. 

To get Cease or any other big trade target, one of the top names would need to be included. And there’s no reason to do that now. 

Santander and O’Hearn are gone after this year, Hays and Mullins the following year and Mountcastle the year after. The Orioles may not have sufficient opportunity for both of Cowser and Kjerstad in 2024, but there’s going to be a big need for corner bats in 2025+. And who knows where Mayo lands between 3B/RF/1B, but there’s lineup space for him too for the same reason. If in his best case scenario Mayo establishes himself as a worthy everyday 3B, then Westburg is more of a utility player or traded. But in the meantime Mayo will break into the majors in an easier defensive home and probably still get some 3B opportunities to not close the book there. 

I think the White Sox were banking on the Orioles coming crawling back to them at the end of this offseason. The gamble to wait until the deadline could still work for them if Cease has a healthy resurgent year, but it’s a big gamble. And they will have no leverage at the deadline - teams will know they HAVE to trade Cease then. They can’t credibly say they’ll wait longer again. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

And yall thought this thread could actually be killed lol.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Beg to differ, I'm pretty sure you have the most amount of posts in this thread.  

Well I just meant that you had some posts on page 299 and helped to push it over the top.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

And yall thought this thread could actually be killed lol.

[Moose Milligan]

The only way it helps us getting Cease is if we give up like 2 lower ranked prospects and a lottery ticket or something.  

But we're officially good without him.  Cease would be a cherry on top and as a 4th or 5th starter in the rotation that would be pretty sweet.

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Westburg/Ortiz were really the only prospects that were blocked from long term starting jobs. The only logjam that should have been alleviated was trading one of them. Now that they’ve done that, there’s no reason to further consider trading for Cease.

Guys like Norby and Stowers are still thoroughly blocked from starting opportunities but they are only secondary/tertiary pieces in a deal. They can also provide value as bench/depth players for the Orioles. 

To get Cease or any other big trade target, one of the top names would need to be included. And there’s no reason to do that now. 

Santander and O’Hearn are gone after this year, Hays and Mullins the following year and Mountcastle the year after. The Orioles may not have sufficient opportunity for both of Cowser and Kjerstad in 2024, but there’s going to be a big need for corner bats in 2025+. And who knows where Mayo lands between 3B/RF/1B, but there’s lineup space for him too for the same reason. If in his best case scenario Mayo establishes himself as a worthy everyday 3B, then Westburg is more of a utility player or traded. But in the meantime Mayo will break into the majors in an easier defensive home and probably still get some 3B opportunities to not close the book there. 

I think the White Sox were banking on the Orioles coming crawling back to them at the end of this offseason. The gamble to wait until the deadline could still work for them if Cease has a healthy resurgent year, but it’s a big gamble. And they will have no leverage at the deadline - teams will know they HAVE to trade Cease then. They can’t credibly say they’ll wait longer again. 

I guess I have a different perspective. IMO only Holliday and Basallo are "untouchables". I don't have a scarcity mentality when it comes to prospects under Elias/Sig because they have shown that they down't need to just find great prospects at the top of the draft. They have proven/shown that they can find/develop those guys from multiple places/profiles (at least position players). So IMO even if they had to deal one of Mayo/Kjerstad, I believe that we will be more than okay. Also, with the financial resources that are getting ready to be behind this team, we no longer need to operate from a Raysian/small market mentality where ever player must be replaced with a prospect. O'Hearn, Santander, Hays can be replaced with prospects, trades, or FAs. IMO we already have Mullins replacement in Bradley Jr.

I am more than okay giving up one of Mayo/Kjerstad + Norby/Stowers + McDermott/Povich + (if need be) Fabian/Beavers for a guy like Cease if that's what it would take. 

Replacing Kremer with Cease is such an upgrade to me. It would cover for the regression that is sure to come with us not having Felix this season.

A rotation of Burnes/Bradish/Rodriguez/Cease/Means is bay far the best in baseball! And if that trade could be accomplished with us keeping 4 out of our top 5 current prospects to me that is a risk well worth taking.

[btdart20]

22 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

And yall thought this thread could actually be killed lol.

Now I'm convinced MLB lurks the OH for topics!

[interloper]

You would think any trade the Orioles would do for Cease, however unlikely, would have to involve Dean Kremer, right? You can't stick him in the bullpen after he threw 170 innings. 

It's hard to imagine the Orioles giving up more prospects than Ortiz and Hall in a single offseason at this point. If we assume that they want to stay away from the top 5, expendable guys include Norby, Stowers, Povich, Beavers, etc. That kind of package probably doesn't get it done. 

And is the upside of adding Cease at this point better than keeping Cowser/Kjerstad, even Kremer? Dunno. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

The only way it helps us getting Cease is if we give up like 2 lower ranked prospects and a lottery ticket or something.  

But we're officially good without him.  Cease would be a cherry on top and as a 4th or 5th starter in the rotation that would be pretty sweet.

I think the only way we would trade for Cease is if Kremer was in the deal, whether it be a 3 team deal where Kremer goes elsewhere or the WS get him.

Otherwise, I don’t see the Os putting Kremer or Means in the pen and Means obviously has little to no value right now.

Maybe things change as the season goes on if Cease is still in Chicago.

 

Edit: I see interloper beat me to this.  Should have finished reading the thread.

Edited February 2 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

I could see it if we suffer some injuries or someone is ineffective.  We have Irvin to backfill one rotation spot but if we suffer 2 losses and we're in contention then a deadline deal makes a lot of sense.  The possibility for the above is not insignificant. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

It might be an open question as to who Mil values more- I still think Ortiz- but there's no doubt Ortiz was the headlining prospect.

Why do you say that?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Why do you say that?

I don't really consider Hall a prospect though I think he might still technically classify as one.

I think Ortiz was the more valuable piece.