Cease vs everyone else

[Rustbelt]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

How many in baseball circle did not know this?

[wildbillhiccup]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is actually a good point in general..it’s easy for us to say yes or no but there is going to be some data and info that we aren’t privy too. If, for example, the Os feel it’s an easy fix to get Cease back to where he was in 2022 and they don’t value Kjerstad or Cowser as much as we think they do, then I feel a trade is much more palatable to do, even if it feels like we are giving up too much.

If they can't find a way to cut down his walks then I think the odds of Cease recapturing his 2022 form are probably slim to none. Every blind squirrel will find a nut once in awhile, but I just don't see a path to sustained success when you give them many free passes. It's the same reason that I think whoever signs Snell to a long term deal is probably going to regret it. Although I do think Snell's walks are much more fixable because it's more about him nibbling than it is his control.  Whereas Cease is just wild. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's not as simple as comparing the two because Cease will be gone after 2025 season. Therein lies my concern. I really don't want Elias to be in a position where's he's doing an unintentional Vincent Vega impression when he scans the roster looking for five serviceable SPs in 2026. 

 

I don't want the O's not making a move and falling short despite having mediocre "depth".

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

If they can't find a way to cut down his walks then I think the odds of Cease recapturing his 2022 form are probably slim to none. Every blind squirrel will find a nut once in awhile, but I just don't see a path to sustained success when you give them many free passes. It's the same reason that I think whoever signs Snell to a long term deal is probably going to regret it. Although I do think Snell's walks are much more fixable because it's more about him nibbling than it is his control.  Whereas Cease is just wild. 

So you don't want to give up Povich but you are worried about Cease's walk rate.

My head hurts.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you don't want to give up Povich but you are worried about Cease's walk rate.

My head hurts.

Povich is a 23 year old still developing player. 

Cease is what he is. 

Perhaps you should take some Tylenol.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I understand what you're talking about, as a GM must take these things into consideration, but I don't think it's prudent to say that we have players A, B, C, D, and E even after the trade, so therefore it's okay to pull the trigger.  I see your post as a 'Part One' of sorts, and again, that's important in order to consider the trade, but the other part to why a trade should or should not be agreed to is perceived value. 

What is the value of Ortiz worth in the trade market (as well as his value to you)?  Same with Kjerstad and Povich.  Add that value up versus the other team's player(s), with Part One factored into the equation, and there's your answer.   

An example of this is trading Holliday straight up for Cease.  We would still have Westburg, Ortiz, and Gunnar (and Kjerstad and Povich), but we wouldn't do it because Holliday has more value than Cease.   I'm sure you understand this, but just wanted to elaborate.

Ultimately, the value is not what one person thinks.  It’s what two parties agree to.   The hypothetical supposes that the WS agree to that deal.  From there it’s simple.  Is that price to heavy and can you afford to pay it.  I stated my reasons why I think we can afford to do it.   Most think that’s too much.  If that was the only deal out there and it was a take or leave it and the organization liked the medicals and metrics on Cease (certainly no guarantee he’s going to be great) I’d do it.

Worst case scenario.  Let’s call it the Glenn Davis scenario.  If this trade backfires it shouldn’t be more than a bump in the road.  On the other hand, we keep all of the big 3, push Wells to the pen, keep Hall in the pen, keep the payroll low, and trade some of the logjam that’s starting to accumulate between Norfolk and Baltimore.

[wildbillhiccup]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't want the O's not making a move and falling short despite having mediocre "depth".

I'm sure there are other moves to be made. The sentiment that our season hangs in the balance of us acquiring Cease is just silly. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Povich is a 23 year old still developing player. 

Cease is what he is. 

Perhaps you should take some Tylenol.

Cease was in the majors at 23.

Povich's walk numbers increased last season.

You might want to cut down on the Flavoraid.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm sure there are other moves to be made. The sentiment that our season hangs in the balance of us acquiring Cease is just silly. 

And no one here is suggesting it is.

I didn't say anything of the sort.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Keeping him away from the Yankees isn’t really the goal.

The goal is to make the best deal possible.

I still say Kjerstad or Cowser and Ortiz is the best deal they can get and there is no need to add a third piece.

But I also question if that deal makes sense for them depending on when their time table to start contending is.

I respect that, but I think the deal that would get it done is Westburg, Cowser/Kjerstad, and McDermott/Povich. They could kick in Kopech but that would be really complicated. 

[TommyPickles]

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the 200 pages of Dylan Cease chat, but this was MLB Network's proposed Cease trade yesterday:

 

Baltimore gets: Cease

 

Chicago gets: Kjerstad, Ortiz, Armbruester

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, TommyPickles said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the 200 pages of Dylan Cease chat, but this was MLB Network's proposed Cease trade yesterday:

 

Baltimore gets: Cease

 

Chicago gets: Kjerstad, Ortiz, Armbruester

Toooooo much

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the 200 pages of Dylan Cease chat, but this was MLB Network's proposed Cease trade yesterday:

 

Baltimore gets: Cease

 

Chicago gets: Kjerstad, Ortiz, Armbruester

I wouldn’t do it, but at least they’re proposing serious trades now. 

[24fps]

2 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

 

It looks like Bob had a deadline coming up and Getz was good enough to take his call.  I can't see much else to pull out of this tweet.

[sportsfan8703]

Last deadline the Sox asked for Holliday. Obviously, we said no. However, since it would’ve been 3 postseasons with Cease, we could’ve been willing to give up one of Mayo or Basallo. But that ain’t happening now. Maybe that’s why there’s no trade. The CWS are finally willing to accept our offer from last year’s deadline, but things are different now.