Cease vs everyone else

[Number5]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

MLB has him at #81.

MLB has Cowser at 14 and Ortiz at 50.

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think there's still a good chance we get to a World Series even if we don't make a flashy move or two. We have an insane farm system, 2 excellent young SP in Bradish and Grayson, a solid lineup, and a good bullpen. Teams have gone farther with less, honestly. Look what we did last year with only buying Gibson and Frazier, and trading for McCann, and claiming O'Hearn. 

So, it's not like there's no hope we can do the damn thing. I'm just trying to set my own expectations. The realistic outcome is, sure, we will sign some guys and trade some guys. But this whole "massive prospect package" thing is rare in general for any team, first of all. And then secondly, there's just nothing about what Angelos and Elias have said over the last year or so that indicates they will play in the top half of the free agent market. But that doesn't mean we can't still add good, useful players. 

I don't think it's reasonable to bet on the results of last year being repeatable especially with the subtraction of Bautista. Our bullpen (particularly the back end) was the ONLY ELITE part of the team last year and now we have subtracted the biggest piece.

For the record, I don't care about the moves being flashy. I care about if they are good players who can perform consistently especially when we need them most. Fuji was a "non-flashy" move and we can all see how that turned out. Please, no more of that!

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think it's reasonable to bet on the results of last year being repeatable especially with the subtraction of Bautista. Our bullpen (particularly the back end) was the ONLY ELITE part of the team last year and now we have subtracted the biggest piece.

For the record, I don't care about the moves being flashy. I care about if they are good players who can perform consistently especially when we need them most. Fuji was a "non-flashy" move and we can all see how that turned out. Please, no more of that!

I think the outcome of 2024 will probably depend about 85-90% on the performance of players already in the organization, and 10-15% on who we acquire and how they perform.   Of course, that 10-15% can be critical.  And it doesn’t necessarily come from the guys you expect.  

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Number5 said:

MLB has Cowser at 14 and Ortiz at 50.

Right.  Cowser is described as a divisive prospect by some.  Most places seem to have him somewhere between 12-25 while others like Fangraphs and Keith Law don’t have him in the top 100.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the outcome of 2024 will probably depend about 85-90% on the performance of players already in the organization, and 10-15% on who we acquire and how they perform.   Of course, that 10-15% can be critical.  And it doesn’t necessarily come from the guys you expect.  

I’m more concerned about the bullpen than the rotation.  No Felix and possible regression from Cano and Coulombe.   You could argue the rotation is in much better shape than last year at this time without any additions.

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the outcome of 2024 will probably depend about 85-90% on the performance of players already in the organization, and 10-15% on who we acquire and how they perform.   Of course, that 10-15% can be critical.  And it doesn’t necessarily come from the guys you expect.  

I don't necessarily disagree with you. I just believe that last year is not very repeatable given the huge subtraction of Bautista in part his ability to get 4 and even 5 out saves. He was the most elite part of our team. If we get similar offensive production and similar pitching, when you subtract from the bullpen's best piece, you are headed for regression (in the regular season). And that doesn't even solve our post season issue (which was the starting rotation and non-back end of the bullpen being really subpar).

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you. I just believe that last year is not very repeatable given the huge subtraction of Bautista in part his ability to get 4 and even 5 out saves. He was the most elite part of our team. If we get similar offensive production and similar pitching, when you subtract from the bullpen's best piece, you are headed for regression (in the regular season). And that doesn't even solve our post season issue (which was the starting rotation and non-back end of the bullpen being really subpar).

I think Bautista was extremely dominant but that his effect on the W-L record is exaggerated.  He blew 6 saves out of 39 chances, which isn’t a particularly good ratio.  The bullpen performance with him over the final 34 games was almost exactly the same as when he was there.   Now, do I think our bullpen is as good without Bautista as with him?  No, I’m not an idiot.  And Elias doesn’t think so either, and he’s said so.   So, I’m sure some steps will be taken to shore up the pen.  

But the point of my prior post is that the performance of our returning players won’t be stagnant.  Some guys will be better, some guys will be worse.   Some guys who spent most or all of 2023 in the minors will be much bigger contributors in 2024.   And some may totally flop.   So, what I’m saying is that these factors have a huge impact on how 2024 will go.   

Just to give an example, would it shock you if DL Hall was installed as the closer and did an above average job?   I don’t think we can bank on it, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me much if that happened.   And stuff like that is likely to be the biggest factor in how the team does, IMO.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

1.  Cowser is top 50 some places and Ortiz is definitely in our top ten.  And he mentions plus.  I think he’s just regurgitating stuff he’s read elsewhere.

Maybe on the Hangout?  Didn't somebody research that some of these articles' ideas were taken off the Hangout and other message boards?

[Sports Guy]

White Sox signed DeJong to a ML contract today. I guess that means Lopez and DeJong is their starting MI?

That certainly goes with the idea of wanting to improve the defense. 
 

I’m guessing they wouldn’t let that stop them from trading for Ortiz but maybe it’s not as an immediate need and they would want something different?  Can’t imagine that would be the case though.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Maybe on the Hangout?  Didn't somebody research that some of these articles' ideas were taken off the Hangout and other message boards?

No, Melewski is talking about what he sees on The Athletic, MLBTR, etc…

[Chicago White Sox]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, you can’t compare deadline deals and offseason deals. They are just completely different.

You also were dealing with the Angels, who are one of the only teams that can give the WS a run for their money as the dumbest team in the sport.

Now, that said your point isn’t invalid either. I will say there is also far more pitching available right now vs the deadline, which is of course another reason you can’t compare things.

And I don’t think this is an idea of valuing prospects over Cease per se. I think it’s questioning just how good the return is going to be.

I think his value is hard to gauge because he has been good but not great for most of his career and despite your assertion that we should start looking at him from 2022 on, that’s just not realistic and no one is going to build a package around that idea. What he has been in his career absolutely matters. 
 

I also think money is easier to spend than prospects, if you are a team that will spend money.  So, maybe he gets a 5/110 type deal in free agency but trading 12-18 years of cheap service time is a different animal. 
 

I have read and heard some conflicting things on what his value will be. I get why you think it should be high but I also get why some think it won’t be as high as the WS think.  When those are the thoughts, to me it says something in the middle is what is realistic…IE, you aren’t getting a top 35 guy…but you should still get someone(s) inside the top 100 or just outside of it.

Again, I don’t mean to to be disrespectful here, but the idea he’s worth “someone(s) inside the top 100 or just outside of it” is wild to me.  Prospects bust at an absurdly high rate.  You talk about trading 12 to 18 years of control like these guys are sure things.  The reality is the average 50 FV prospect (guys typically in the 50 to 125 range) will provide to 2 to 3 wins in value over the period of time a team has control of them.  Cease is likely going to provide 3 to 4 wins next year alone and that doesn’t require he return to 2022 form.  As such, even before you factor the possibility he returns to 2022 form, the premium for SP right now, and the high probability of a compensation pick coming at the end of his control, the intrinsic valuation would suggest two 50 FV prospects as being fair value at the low end of the range.  And beyond that, the most recent comps suggest a package based on one 55+ / 55 FV prospect and one 50 FV type guy.  I don’t really care what Jim Bowden wrote in some article.  I have seen go both ways in vastly overrating or underrating potential trade returns.

[Pickles]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

White Sox signed DeJong to a ML contract today. I guess that means Lopez and DeJong is their starting MI?

That certainly goes with the idea of wanting to improve the defense. 
 

I’m guessing they wouldn’t let that stop them from trading for Ortiz but maybe it’s not as an immediate need and they would want something different?  Can’t imagine that would be the case though.

Nobody is passing up on Ortiz because of De Jong, except for you.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, I don’t mean to to be disrespectful here, but the idea he’s worth “someone(s) inside the top 100 or just outside of it” is wild to me.  Prospects bust at an absurdly high rate.  You talk about trading 12 to 18 years of control like these guys are sure things.  The reality is the average 50 FV prospect (guys typically in the 50 to 125 range) will provide to 2 to 3 wins in value over the period of time a team has control of them.  Cease is likely going to provide 3 to 4 wins next year alone and that doesn’t require he return to 2022 form.  As such, even before you factor the possibility he returns to 2022 form, the premium for SP right now, and the high probability of a compensation pick coming at the end of his control, the intrinsic valuation would suggest two 50 FV prospects as being fair value at the low end of the range.  And beyond that, the most recent comps suggest a package based on one 55+ / 55 FV prospect and one 50 FV type guy.  I don’t really care what Jim Bowden wrote in some article.  I have seen go both ways in vastly overrating or underrating potential trade returns.

CHI can have one of Kjerstad, Cowser, or Ortiz and then another guy in 10-14 range.  Prospects do bust, but you get your choice of some pretty primo ones so don't be stupid and make a good choice.

Or go and make a deal with somebody else, but I bet you can't get a better prospect than one of those three from anybody else.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, I don’t mean to to be disrespectful here, but the idea he’s worth “someone(s) inside the top 100 or just outside of it” is wild to me.  Prospects bust at an absurdly high rate.  You talk about trading 12 to 18 years of control like these guys are sure things.  The reality is the average 50 FV prospect (guys typically in the 50 to 125 range) will provide to 2 to 3 wins in value over the period of time a team has control of them.  Cease is likely going to provide 3 to 4 wins next year alone and that doesn’t require he return to 2022 form.  As such, even before you factor the possibility he returns to 2022 form, the premium for SP right now, and the high probability of a compensation pick coming at the end of his control, the intrinsic valuation would suggest two 50 FV prospects as being fair value at the low end of the range.  And beyond that, the most recent comps suggest a package based on one 55+ / 55 FV prospect and one 50 FV type guy.  I don’t really care what Jim Bowden wrote in some article.  I have seen go both ways in vastly overrating or underrating potential trade returns.

Well first of all, top 100 guys can be very overrated.  Top 10 prospects are also not created equal. The Orioles have 15-20 guys would make a lot of teams top 10 and probably 7-12 players that would make a lot of top 5s. This is why you guys(or any team) dealing with us is your best case scenario.

Secondly, you talk about us acting like our prospects are sure things (which literally zero people are doing) yet you want us to believe that we should ignore everything prior to 2022 because of a pitch. You act like it’s a sure thing that Cease won’t be the bust even though there are signs he could get worse. Cease is certainly more of a sure thing than any player likely to be traded for him but he’s also gone in 2 years and will carry larger salaries, where as you stand to get 2-4 players with all of their service time and cheap salaries ahead.  In terms of surplus value, you guys figure to have way more upside with that long term than the Os.

Of course, we can’t keep and play everyone and this team needs to win now, so you give that up for what you hope is a big upgrade.

Im going to go back to the list of teams I said are likely to be in the hunt for him…what are they going to give up that is what you are looking for?  To me, this is what the conversation really is about. What are these teams willing to give up? 

What do you want from St Louis? Or Cinci? Or the Dodgers? Or Boston? Or the Yankees? Or Houston?

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

You keep mentioning Cease’s stuff without mentioning his mid 4 era. His high WHIP rate. Unlike the previous season where he put it all together he clearly didn’t this year or he’d be Uber valuable.

Because ERA doesn’t really matter.  Go look at xERA which accounts for quality of contact and you can see how close he and Bradish were last year.  I imagine Cease’s ERA pitching behind a quality defense would look considerably better despite his high walk rate (which he also had in 2022).

Edited November 22, 2023 by Chicago White Sox