Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

So it looks like if Cease had the same level of defense behind him that Kyle Bradish did, his ERA last year would have been 4.02.

I think that's how Cease should be valued. He's two years of fairly cheap 180 IP/4.00 ERA. I'd be willing to value him a little higher than that because there's some chance he recaptures his Cy Young form.

Those kind of pitchers don't grow on trees. Connor Norby as a headliner doesn't get you there. You probably need to start talks with Cowser or Kjerstad.

I’m not addressing the Sox kid anymore. I was responding to one of our posters he mentioned 4 or 5 guys for them to choose a headliner that included Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, and Kjerstad. I said I’d give them the choice of Ortiz, Cowser, or Norby. He singled out Norby to create his post. Kind of like he used a one line about Ortiz in a MLB blurb but wanted to ignore his #50 ranking or whatever it was. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Brian88 said:

Don’t feel bad, this is how he always is. 

That’s only in the Ravens forum about Lamar Jackson to annoy you!

Edited December 3, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m not addressing the Sox kid anymore. I was responding to one of our posters he mentioned 4 or 5 guys for them to choose a headliner that included Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, and Kjerstad. I said I’d give them the choice of Ortiz, Cowser, or Norby. He singled out Norby to create his post. Kind of like he used a one line about Ortiz in a MLB blurb but wanted to ignore his #50 ranking or whatever it was. 

He singled out Norby because it’s absurd to think he can be a headliner piece in a trade like this.

Now, I do think it’s possible we can get Cease for a package where the headliner is less than Cowser or Kjerstad but to think Norby is the #1 guy is absurd.

On top of that, to group Norby with the rest of them is even more absurd. He isn’t on the level of Cowser or Kjerstad and it’s very likely he’s not on the level of Ortiz although that’s a more defensible opinion.

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get this idea of you can only trade one of Kjerstad/Cowser/Ortiz.

Can we please stop acting like Ortiz is on the same level as those 2 because he’s not.

I like Ortiz. I would be happy with him as the everyday second baseman. I think he can be a 3-4 WAR player.

But the bottom line is we do have questions about how much of his power will translate to the majors and he’s “old”.  This isn’t to say he’s not a good prospect or that he can’t be a productive MLer but he is CLEARLY behind the 2 OFers and he is clearly a solid second piece in a deal like this.

People need to start getting behind the idea the Os have to trade players in areas that they have a ton of depth. You can’t just keep hoping to win AAA titles. Your players have to win games for you in the majors and they can do that in multiple ways, one of which is being part of a trade.

On top of that, if you are going to “overpay” and have him as your second piece in a trade, you should do it for a pitcher who can be an impact guy.

True impact starters don’t throw on trees. I know some on here don’t believe Cease is that and in some ways, they are correct. The problem with the thinking from some is that they refuse to look at advance stats that tell you more of the story and they refuse to understand just what a dumpster fire Cease is coming from.

Think about to a guy like Arrieta. The Os couldn’t develop him because of how awful the org was. That’s the WS right now.

If I asked you 8 years ago, would you be surprise if pitcher X went to another team and thrived, everyone here would have say no. We all knew that the Os couldn’t do anything.

Well that’s the WS now. A clueless org that can’t do anything correctly. So, if the Os are going after him and they are willing to trade for him, you have to believe they see many of the things we are talking about.

65% of voters on the last poll were on board with trading Cowser and Ortiz for Cease. Some of the no votes would probably prefer an even larger prospect package for a pitcher with more control than two years (Mariners/Marlins options).

I think there are very few people on here who are against giving up a prospect haul for a controllable, high end SP.

[RZNJ]

There are some evaluators who feel Ortiz is on the same level as Cowser and Kjerstad.  I wouldn’t state it strongly as if it were fact.  Most have Cowser and Kjerstad ahead.  Some have the three close together.  A few, like Law, have Ortiz ahead of Cowser.   

[SemperFi]

 Rosenthal (The Athletic 12-3) suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that "Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc."

While it may be in their best interest to wait it also may be indicative of the level of offers they have received-the CWS don't hold all the cards, the prospects they desire most may be dealt too.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There are some evaluators who feel Ortiz is on the same level as Cowser and Kjerstad.  I wouldn’t state it strongly as if it were fact.  Most have Cowser and Kjerstad ahead.  Some have the three close together.  A few, like Law, have Ortiz ahead of Cowser.   

Bottom line is MLB has them in their top 50 in baseball. I’m betting most if not all have them in their top 100. @Sports Guy I was just using the other posters suggestion of 5 guys that included Westburg but said I’d prefer not to trade Westburg or Kjerstad. Norby probably would still appear in a top 130 prospect list. So no, he’s not a top 50 prospect. And it should be egg on Elias face for holding him a year too long when they made up their mind to have Urias and Mateo around another year. Norby probably gets 200-300 ABs minimum with a .270-290 Avg and .700ish OPS. Everyone seems to think his bat will play. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There are some evaluators who feel Ortiz is on the same level as Cowser and Kjerstad.  I wouldn’t state it strongly as if it were fact.  Most have Cowser and Kjerstad ahead.  Some have the three close together.  A few, like Law, have Ortiz ahead of Cowser.   

Tony has Kjerstad as 45/55/60, while Cowser and Ortiz are both 45/50/55.  Not a lot of difference there.  

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

 Rosenthal (The Athletic 12-3) suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that "Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc."

While it may be in their best interest to wait it also may be indicative of the level of offers they have received-the CWS don't hold all the cards, the prospects they desire most may be dealt too.

I agree …. I’m guessing they’re not getting offered one of our top 5 and Ortiz plus a 3rd that’s possibly Kremer. I’d like to see Elias make a take it or leave it offer and then move on.

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tony has Kjerstad as 45/55/60, while Cowser and Ortiz are both 45/50/55.  Not a lot of difference there.  

Ortiz

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 40/45
Raw Power: 50/50
Run: 55/55
Defense: 60/65

[ChicagoTerp]

19 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

 Rosenthal (The Athletic 12-3) suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that "Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc."

While it may be in their best interest to wait it also may be indicative of the level of offers they have received-the CWS don't hold all the cards, the prospects they desire most may be dealt too.

I had the same thought. While there are plenty of teams looking for SP, there are also many SP options available via FA or trade. So it's not like there is some huge mismatch between supply and demand.

If the Sox want to wait, I think they may end up waiting til the deadline to move Cease, at which point his value may be much higher or lower than it is now.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree …. I’m guessing they’re not getting offered one of our top 5 and Ortiz plus a 3rd that’s possibly Kremer. I’d like to see Elias make a take it or leave it offer and then move on.

The suggestion that Kremer be part of this package is one of the more ludicrous suggestions going around.

[Roll Tide]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He singled out Norby because it’s absurd to think he can be a headliner piece in a trade like this.

Now, I do think it’s possible we can get Cease for a package where the headliner is less than Cowser or Kjerstad but to think Norby is the #1 guy is absurd.

On top of that, to group Norby with the rest of them is even more absurd. He isn’t on the level of Cowser or Kjerstad and it’s very likely he’s not on the level of Ortiz although that’s a more defensible opinion.

 

GMs get offered players on a list all of the time that they’d have no interest in. I’m guessing Getz probably has no interest in Norby if he’s looking to purge his team of bat first players. If I’m Elias I’m offering the guys I don’t want in my top 10.  MLB still has him in our top 10 at #7 just behind Ortiz. 
 

They still think he’s capable of playing a solid 2B.

Quote

Norby is an aggressive baserunner, one who can steal a base despite having just average speed. He’s a capable defender at second base, where his average arm works fine and he’s athletic enough to handle left field as he did at times last year. It’s his bat, though, that put him on the fast track to Baltimore, and he should be knocking on the door soon.

 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, ChicagoTerp said:

I had the same thought. While there are plenty of teams looking for SP, there are also many SP options available via FA or trade. So it's not like there is some huge mismatch between supply and demand.

If the Sox want to wait, I think they may end up waiting til the deadline to move Cease, at which point his value may be much higher or lower than it is now.

That didn’t work well this deadline when someone would’ve gotten 2 1/2 season. I’m betting he’s dealt this offseason. And Rosenthal is just probably playing the mouthpiece in a posturing leak. 

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The suggestion that Kremer be part of this package is one of the more ludicrous suggestions going around.

Agreed but it happened here!