MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[wildbillhiccup]

15 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I wanted Bassitt last offseason, and they have some reasonable comps. I think the major differences are Bassitt (RHP) was 33 last offseason and Montgomery (LHP) is 30 now. I'd absolutely be looking for 5+ years if I were Montgomery.

If he wants Nola security (7/$172m) then yes, there's no argument to be made here. I haven't heard that; most projections I've seen are around 5/$100m-$125m. I think that's still within reason, given Bassitt secured 3/$63m at 33 years old.

I actually misspoke. He wants "more" than the Nola contract. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10103727-mlb-rumors-jordan-montgomery-looking-to-top-aaron-nolas-172m-phillies-contract#:~:text="Executives and agents spoken to,ill-fatedly for Harrison Bader.

[ThisIsBirdland]

11 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I actually misspoke. He wants "more" than the Nola contract. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10103727-mlb-rumors-jordan-montgomery-looking-to-top-aaron-nolas-172m-phillies-contract#:~:text="Executives and agents spoken to,ill-fatedly for Harrison Bader.

Nola is also 30, coming off of a rather average/mediocre season (his second in three years it looks like) and is a RHP. I don't blame him at all for wanting something like that (7/$175m) in early January, but the market is pretty clearly telling him he's not in line to get that. Again, take two years off of that deal and to me it seems reasonable.

It honestly looks like the Phillies overpaid given what the rest of the market is bearing out, but you can't fault Montgomery for wanting that given Nola's track record.

[Billy F-Face3]

I really hope it's not the Red Sox.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Nola is also 30, coming off of a rather average/mediocre season (his second in three years it looks like) and is a RHP. I don't blame him at all for wanting something like that (7/$175m) in early January, but the market is pretty clearly telling him he's not in line to get that. Again, take two years off of that deal and to me it seems reasonable.

It honestly looks like the Phillies overpaid given what the rest of the market is bearing out, but you can't fault Montgomery for wanting that given Nola's track record.

That’s a joke, right?  OK, Nola’s coming off a bad year.  But you don’t commit to a player for 7 years based on one season.  And over the long term, Nola has been a vastly more durable pitcher than Montgomery, and an absolute horse.  Give me the 31.7 rWAR pitcher and please don’t mention the 12.5 rWAR pitcher in the same breath when it comes to doling out a 7 year deal.  

[rm5678]

12 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I really hope it's not the Red Sox.

Montgomery's wife is doing her medical residency in Boston this year, so it wouldn't be too surprising if he ends up with the Sox. Plus, he's very familiar with the AL East.

[ThisIsBirdland]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s a joke, right?  OK, Nola’s coming off a bad year.  But you don’t commit to a player for 7 years based on one season.  And over the long term, Nola has been a vastly more durable pitcher than Montgomery, and an absolute horse.  Give me the 31.7 rWAR pitcher and please don’t mention the 12.5 rWAR pitcher in the same breath when it comes to doling out a 7 year deal.  

If I wasn't clear, I don't think Montgomery should get the 7 year deal, and I think the AAV should probably be lower as well ($20m-$25m). Like I originally said, I don't think 5/$100m-$125m is off base here. Falling between Bassitt and Nola seems fair to me.

Can he push for it in free agency, given the three year run he's had? He's been durable, he's had success in the playoffs and the AL East, he's left handed, he's exceeded Nola's ERA+ over those three years, and his rWAR over those three years has been close enough to push as a comp (10.5 for Nola to 9.1 for Montgomery).

If Nola's full body of work, including a 2018 rWAR of 9.7, makes drawing the comparison that out of line, that's fine. I still don't fault him for asking for it in free agency, and I think I've been pretty clear and pragmatic about where I think he should end up.

What contract terms do you think he should get?

Edited February 24 by ThisIsBirdland

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

If I wasn't clear, I don't think Montgomery should get the 7 year deal, and I think the AAV should probably be lower as well ($20m-$25m). Like I originally said, I don't think 5/$100m-$125m is off base here. Falling between Bassitt and Nola seems fair to me.

Can he push for it in free agency, given the three year run he's had? He's been durable, he's had success in the playoffs and the AL East, he's left handed, he's exceeded Nola's ERA+ over those three years, and his rWAR over those three years has been close enough to push as a comp (10.5 for Nola to 9.1 for Montgomery).

If Nola's full body of work, including a 2018 rWAR of 9.7, makes drawing the comparison that out of line, that's fine. I still don't fault him for asking for it in free agency, and I think I've been pretty clear and pragmatic about where I think he should end up.

What contract terms do you think he should get?

Sorry if I came on a little strong there.  All decent pitchers end up getting more than I think they should get.  To me, something like 5/$100 is probably the max I think a team should go for Montgomery.   

[TopGunnar]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

What playoffs were you watching?

LHP: 13.1 IP, 16 H, 7 ER

RHP: 13.2 IP, 9 H. 3 ER

I hate the whole idea of drawing significant conclusions from a 3 game playoff series vs. a 162 game season anyway, but in this case the playoff results don’t support you conclusion at all.

Was it fun seeing Ohearn make his first at bats Dow. 0-2 in the series. Same thing might happen this year. McKenna playing over Kjersted because of the matchup.

[TopGunnar]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

What playoffs were you watching?

LHP: 13.1 IP, 16 H, 7 ER

RHP: 13.2 IP, 9 H. 3 ER

I hate the whole idea of drawing significant conclusions from a 3 game playoff series vs. a 162 game season anyway, but in this case the playoff results don’t support you conclusion at all.

Was it fun seeing Ohearn make his first at bats Dow. 0-2 in the series. Same thing might happen this year. McKenna playing over Kjersted because of the matchup.

[ShoelesJoe]

Bellinger signs with the Cubs, 3/80 with opt outs after each of the first two years. 

[Jagwar]

5 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Bellinger signs with the Cubs, 3/80 with opt outs after each of the first two years. 

Good. Keep him out of the AL East. 

[Just Regular]

Bellinger deal about that spot in the calendar we got Nelson Cruz that year.

A guy I've played roto with since college (Nats fan) said the Orioles need to get Jordan Montgomery just so the rotation could be.....Monty Burns.

We've come to the few days for Chris Getz where it is either execution time or Dylan Cease has to throw some game hot pitches.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Bellinger deal about that spot in the calendar we got Nelson Cruz that year.

A guy I've played roto with since college (Nats fan) said the Orioles need to get Jordan Montgomery just so the rotation could be.....Monty Burns.

We've come to the few days for Chris Getz where it is either execution time or Dylan Cease has to throw some game hot pitches.

Bellinger signed a front loaded 3/80 deal with the Cubs.  Opt outs after 2024 and 2025.

Would love the Os to sign Snell or Montgomery to a similar deal.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Would not be surprised to see the other Boras guys - Chapman, Snell, Montgomery - take deals similar to Bellinger now, 3 yrs with opt outs after each. Basically the Correa deal from a couple years ago. Would hope the Orioles are in on the pitchers if so. 

It is a little different for pitchers versus hitters though. The pitchers might want to just max their guaranteed money while they still can.  They’re not going to have better platform years. But I doubt they have much else on the table at this point. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Would not be surprised to see the other Boras guys - Chapman, Snell, Montgomery - take deals similar to Bellinger now, 3 yrs with opt outs after each. Basically the Correa deal from a couple years ago. Would hope the Orioles are in on the pitchers if so. 

It is a little different for pitchers versus hitters though. The pitchers might want to just max their guaranteed money while they still can.  They’re not going to have better platform years. But I doubt they have much else on the table at this point. 

Yea, I would think the pitchers won’t do it unless they can’t secure anything more than 3 years. 
 

Chapman may sign for something similar.