MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[CaptainRedbeard]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I would think the pitchers won’t do it unless they can’t secure anything more than 3 years. 
 

Chapman may sign for something similar.

Yeah, I could also see something like 4 or 5 years for the pitchers but with the opt outs not starting until after year 2 or 3. Basically split the difference, more guaranteed money than the Bellinger/Correa structure and not the ability to re-enter FA right away, but still shorter than the 6+ years they wanted initially.

All of those should work for the Orioles too, but it would have to be something where the sale is considered certain enough for both ownerships to green light it, and that’s only if they are budgeting a big enough payroll increase AND Elias thinks it’s a worthwhile deal.

Plus on those types of deals they will have plenty of other teams interested. But the Wall + Snell/Montgomery being LHP + good team should make the Orioles as appealing as any other for a contract where they want to go back to FA, if they’re willing to put up comparable $. 

Ultimately after this Bellinger deal it seems even more likely that Snell or Montgomery are going to end up signing for something that we wish the Orioles had done. Will hurt more if it’s Snell to NYY and/or Montgomery to BOS.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Bellinger signs with the Cubs, 3/80 with opt outs after each of the first two years. 

Very good deal for him IMO.   

[backwardsk]

Cubs don’t lose any draft picks with this deal. Losing picks for Snell or Chapman (if they opt out after one season) would not be ideal.

[Just Regular]

New Astros manager Joe Espada says Yordan will bat 2nd.     It'll be an extra late game PA about once every 9th game.

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Very good deal for him IMO.   

https://theathletic.com/5298286/2024/02/25/cody-bellinger-cubs-scott-boras/
 

Not being reported that way. Expectations were considerably higher entering the offseason.

Good article exploring the consequences of Boras’ players overplaying their hands in this market. Rosenthal indicates it may pressure his other clients to take the short term deals too, since teams have seen him blink first. I’ll go one step further and hope it influences his young pre-arb Os clients to give more consideration to long-term offers. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

https://theathletic.com/5298286/2024/02/25/cody-bellinger-cubs-scott-boras/
 

Not being reported that way. Expectations were considerably higher entering the offseason.

Good article exploring the consequences of Boras’ players overplaying their hands in this market. Rosenthal indicates it may pressure his other clients to take the short term deals too, since teams have seen him blink first. I’ll go one step further and hope it influences his young pre-arb Os clients to give more consideration to long-term offers. 

Bellinger's one season removed from hitting .217 for a full season and most of the underlying baseball metrics suggest last season's success is unsustainable. In particular his average exit velocity, barrell %, and hard hit % were all ice cold blue on his statcast page last season. Despite the Boras sales pitch, yes he was lucky to get that deal. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

https://theathletic.com/5298286/2024/02/25/cody-bellinger-cubs-scott-boras/
 

Not being reported that way. Expectations were considerably higher entering the offseason.

Good article exploring the consequences of Boras’ players overplaying their hands in this market. Rosenthal indicates it may pressure his other clients to take the short term deals too, since teams have seen him blink first. I’ll go one step further and hope it influences his young pre-arb Os clients to give more consideration to long-term offers. 

The way I see it, it’s heads I win/tails you lose for Bellinger.   If he has another good season he can opt out, and if he has a bad one the Cubs are stuck paying him for two more years.  He’s been wildly inconsistent the last few years so who knows how his career will go.  Either way he won’t end up underpaid. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Bellinger's one season removed from hitting .217 for a full season and most of the underlying baseball metrics suggest last season's success is unsustainable. In particular his average exit velocity, barrell %, and hard hit % were all ice cold blue on his statcast page last season. Despite the Boras sales pitch, yes he was lucky to get that deal. 

This offseason is unique. The typically big spending teams have either already spent, are reloading/rebuilding/in transition, or are too pressed against the luxury tax threshold to justify these contracts. Bellinger, Snell and Montgomery all would have almost certainly received better deals in prior offseasons.

Statcast is valuable but it's not gospel, either. Ryan Mountcastle is a metrics-behemoth but it doesn't necessarily translate. And in general, Bellinger graded quite well on their metrics:

For comparison, here's Alex Bregman. Do you expect him to fair poorly in free agency?

And here's Altuve, who at 33 just got a 5/$125m deal:

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The way I see it, it’s heads I win/tails you lose for Bellinger.   If he has another good season he can opt out, and if he has a bad one the Cubs are stuck paying him for two more years.  He’s been wildly inconsistent the last few years so who knows how his career will go.  Either way he won’t end up underpaid. 

The Athletic projected 6/$162m and MLBTR projected 12/$264m. Both look hysterical in hindsight, but I think the Athletic's projection very well could have occurred in any other normal offseason where the big teams are spending. I'm sure that's disappointing for Bellinger at the end of the day, even if he has $80m guaranteed.

[wildbillhiccup]

28 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

This offseason is unique. The typically big spending teams have either already spent, are reloading/rebuilding/in transition, or are too pressed against the luxury tax threshold to justify these contracts. Bellinger, Snell and Montgomery all would have almost certainly received better deals in prior offseasons.

Statcast is valuable but it's not gospel, either. Ryan Mountcastle is a metrics-behemoth but it doesn't necessarily translate. And in general, Bellinger graded quite well on their metrics:

For comparison, here's Alex Bregman. Do you expect him to fair poorly in free agency?

And here's Altuve, who at 33 just got a 5/$125m deal:

 

Not good comps IMO. Bregman and Altuve (who's a future HOFer) have both shown the ability to consistently out perform their underlying numbers and have demonstrated sustained success over the course of their careers. Bellinger has three solid MLB seasons out of seven so he's been bad more than he's been good. And going into the 2023 season he was lucky someone even gave him a starting job considering how awful he was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's also very telling about how skeptical teams were about Bellinger's ability to repeat last season considering that he's still a relatively young player and a plus defender at two positions and he still couldn't land anything better than what is basically three glorified one year contracts. 

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not good comps IMO. Bregman and Altuve (who's a future HOFer) have both shown the ability to consistently out perform their underlying numbers and have demonstrated sustained success over the course of their careers. Bellinger has three solid MLB seasons out of seven so he's been bad more than he's been good. And going into the 2023 season he was lucky someone even gave him a starting job considering how awful he was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's also very telling about how skeptical teams were about Bellinger's ability to repeat last season considering that he's still a relatively young player and a plus defender at two positions and he still couldn't land anything better than what is basically three glorified one year contracts. 

 

I was only trying to show the relative limitations of Statcast, not the value of the comps necessarily. I agree those guys have better track records. I just quickly sorted by exit velocity and barrel rate and searched for the first good players within the same ranges as Bellinger to show that Statcast doesn't tell the full story on a player.

I don't think Bellinger is some slam dunk acquisition. I just think he underperformed with the contract he received relative to what was expected at the beginning of free agency. I think that was driven as much by the unique market this year as by Bellinger's limitations; players with his limitations are often still signed to healthy 9-figure contracts, even if they probably shouldn't be. Snell and Montgomery struggling to land similar contracts falls into the same discussion. As players they're not without their limitations, but in most offseasons they would have landed 9-figure deals by now. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not good comps IMO. Bregman and Altuve (who's a future HOFer) have both shown the ability to consistently out perform their underlying numbers and have demonstrated sustained success over the course of their careers. Bellinger has three solid MLB seasons out of seven so he's been bad more than he's been good. And going into the 2023 season he was lucky someone even gave him a starting job considering how awful he was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's also very telling about how skeptical teams were about Bellinger's ability to repeat last season considering that he's still a relatively young player and a plus defender at two positions and he still couldn't land anything better than what is basically three glorified one year contracts. 

 

I’d call that a 3 year/80m guarantee.   Many people believe his awful years were tied to the shoulder issue which is what the Cubs probably believe.  

[Just Regular]

Keller's 5/77 looks like it does include this year where he was set to earn 5-6 via Arb, so back of envelope, 2 years away from FA, ballpark is:

Arb2 = 1/5

Arb3 = 1/12

3 FA years = 3/60

His service time of 4 years and a small number of days matches Mullins.    Mullins is the closest Oriole probably in overall value, in case Elias was considering moving EBJ anytime this year for a Cease-Luzardo type.

Mullins' camp and Orioles fans hope he'll produce the on field value these two years to beat Bryan Reynolds or Brandon Nimmo.

The balance of Acuna Extension1 is about 5/85 from here.

Edited February 26 by Just Regular

[Just Regular]

Steady infielders - I guess Gio Urshela is to Ramon Urias as Amed Rosario is to Jorge Mateo, looking at a couple AL recent transactions.

One of the takes on why Rosario/Urshela outcomes are so far under guessers is that Clubs feel stronger at building floors mixing and matching replacement level players and matching up swing paths to pitch shapes, and the 1-2 WAR kind of guys are getting squeezed.

It doesn't feel impossible from here that the early years of Connor Norby's career become Up/Down guy based on whether he presents as a strong DH option the next few series.     Guy like that a Club might be able to use 4-5 MLB seasons before they make it to Arb.

[btdart20]

15 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not good comps IMO. Bregman and Altuve (who's a future HOFer) have both shown the ability to consistently out perform their underlying numbers and have demonstrated sustained success over the course of their careers. Bellinger has three solid MLB seasons out of seven so he's been bad more than he's been good. And going into the 2023 season he was lucky someone even gave him a starting job considering how awful he was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's also very telling about how skeptical teams were about Bellinger's ability to repeat last season considering that he's still a relatively young player and a plus defender at two positions and he still couldn't land anything better than what is basically three glorified one year contracts. 

 

Bellinger's OPS+ has been over 100 5 out of 7 seasons.  But 2 out of the last 3 have been bad.  Clearly the market does not trust him fully.  I think market dynamics have impacted him more than him impacting the market.  

Once LAD spent there bills, NYY balancing the luxury tax, a few teams experiencing cord cutting stress, that impacts FA dollars.  

The Correa path seems like a good compromise for both sides.