MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Hard to imagine we couldn’t put together a deal for Miller or Woo if they are actually available. 

I agree but even if they can’t, there should still be a different deal we could do to send them one of those 2 guys.

The Os need to make room and moving one of those guys would be big.

[UMDTerrapins]

Not that I’m suggesting it here, but has there ever been a prominent player traded for a PTBNL, where the PTBNL was chosen by the receiving team based on the traded players’ WAR in the season after the trade is made, with the WAR dictating which range of organizational prospects the trading team can choose from? 
 

For example, we trade Santander to the Mariners for a PTBNL. If he puts up less than a 2.5 WAR IN 2024, we get to choose any prospect ranked below 5th on the M’s list of top prospects by MLB rankings. If he puts up 2.5 or higher we get to choose any prospect ranked below 2nd. 
 

Don’t scrutinize that particular example because I put zero thought into it. I’m just curious hypothetically. For example, if we were going to lose Santander after next season and had someone like Kjerstad we felt could fill most of his production, how nice a benefit would it be to essentially have a draft pick waiting from Seattle’s top prospects waiting for us in the offseason. Pick one of their prospects based on the performance of the player they receive. Pick a MLB ready prospect that addresses a position of need, or possibly draft a younger prospect who is more risky but has a super high ceiling…..
 

Put it this way…..imagine if we had had a choice of anyone on their top prospect list below #3 after this past season concluded but before Rule 5 rosters were set,  because we traded someone before the 2023 season began who put up a solid season for them. Imagine you’re Elias and you’re choosing a prospect from their list right now. The flexibility of the options would seem to be really attractive to me. Better than trading for a draft pick (if that was even possible) because the prospects you’re choosing from have minor league seasoning, are better scouted and have more projectable statistics to reference, and are closer to the majors. 
 

Has this been done before with a prominent established player, and not just a delayed choice from a pre-chosen handful of prospects? 

[UMDTerrapins]

Another upside from that strategy…..the prospect picking team can do extensive live scouting during the season on their top expected options. And for the team dealing for the established player (ie Santander) an upside is giving nothing for a year to acquire a needed player, and only giving up a prospect commensurate to the performance they receive from that player. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Or……forget the performance part of it for a second. Would you trade Connor Norby to the Mets for a PTNL, our choice coming from anyone ranked below #2 on their prospect list next offseason? Again….just example. 

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Not that I’m suggesting it here, but has there ever been a prominent player traded for a PTBNL, where the PTBNL was chosen by the receiving team based on the traded players’ WAR in the season after the trade is made, with the WAR dictating which range of organizational prospects the trading team can choose from? 
 

For example, we trade Santander to the Mariners for a PTBNL. If he puts up less than a 2.5 WAR IN 2024, we get to choose any prospect ranked below 5th on the M’s list of top prospects by MLB rankings. If he puts up 2.5 or higher we get to choose any prospect ranked below 2nd. 
 

Don’t scrutinize that particular example because I put zero thought into it. I’m just curious hypothetically. For example, if we were going to lose Santander after next season and had someone like Kjerstad we felt could fill most of his production, how nice a benefit would it be to essentially have a draft pick waiting from Seattle’s top prospects waiting for us in the offseason. Pick one of their prospects based on the performance of the player they receive. Pick a MLB ready prospect that addresses a position of need, or possibly draft a younger prospect who is more risky but has a super high ceiling…..
 

Put it this way…..imagine if we had had a choice of anyone on their top prospect list below #3 after this past season concluded but before Rule 5 rosters were set,  because we traded someone before the 2023 season began who put up a solid season for them. Imagine you’re Elias and you’re choosing a prospect from their list right now. The flexibility of the options would seem to be really attractive to me. Better than trading for a draft pick (if that was even possible) because the prospects you’re choosing from have minor league seasoning, are better scouted and have more projectable statistics to reference, and are closer to the majors. 
 

Has this been done before with a prominent established player, and not just a delayed choice from a pre-chosen handful of prospects? 

I don’t know who’s considered a “prominent” player, but I do believe there have been trades where the quality of the PTBNL was contingent on the subsequent performance of the traded player.  I don’t know if it’s ever been tied to WAR, but I tend to doubt it.  

[UMDTerrapins]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know who’s considered a “prominent” player, but I do believe there have been trades where the quality of the PTBNL was contingent on the subsequent performance of the traded player.  I don’t know if it’s ever been tied to WAR, but I tend to doubt it.  

Yeah, I can’t think of examples but I know it’s not uncommon for a teams to agree to a handful of return options for the trading team to choose from at a later date. Pretty basic. I kinda love the idea of being able to choose from a top prospects list. Would you trade Mateo for a choice a future choice of anyone outside the top 10 on the Marlins prospects list for example? Or something like that? 
 

Also, since the Orioles have a glut of players at the MLB or MLB-ready level, it might be nice to shuffle some of our blocked prospects for 2027-ish ETA prospects so that we can extend and sustain our competitive window. That is unless we can package them to make a WS contender. It’s all just theoretical, but I would love to be a GM who has a delayed pick from another teams’ farm system. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by UMDTerrapins

[Jim'sKid26]

Jim Bowden (https://theathletic.com/5138791/2023/12/15/mlb-offseason-trade-targets/)

seems to think that the O's are waiting for the pitching market to settle and then the trades will happen. He mentioned Edward Cabrera from the Marlins as being available. He seems like an interesting young SP who the Marlins apparently would trade for 3 MLB ready players. Seems like the O's could meet that demand without having to trade any of their top 5 prospects. Bowden seems to think the Rays will be in on him but the O's also match up well. 

Cabrera is 26 and not eligible for arb until 2026. He throws 5 pitches and misses bats. His change up is elite and his 4SFB sits 96.2 ave MPH. He had 118 Ks in just under 100 IP last year. He's the type of young, controllable SP that you plug into the #4-5 spot in the rotation and see what he can do. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Jim Bowden (https://theathletic.com/5138791/2023/12/15/mlb-offseason-trade-targets/)

seems to think that the O's are waiting for the pitching market to settle and then the trades will happen. He mentioned Edward Cabrera from the Marlins as being available. He seems like an interesting young SP who the Marlins apparently would trade for 3 MLB ready players. Seems like the O's could meet that demand without having to trade any of their top 5 prospects. Bowden seems to think the Rays will be in on him but the O's also match up well. 

Cabrera is 26 and not eligible for arb until 2026. He throws 5 pitches and misses bats. His change up is elite and his 4SFB sits 96.2 ave MPH. He had 118 Ks in just under 100 IP last year. He's the type of young, controllable SP that you plug into the #4-5 spot in the rotation and see what he can do. 

In a profession full of mostly talking heads and idiots Jim Bowden just might be the king of stupidity and unsubstantiated "reporting". There is zippy chance the Marlins are getting 3 MLB ready players for Cabrera. They'd be lucky to get one at this point.  He also gives me some major Daniel Cabrera vibes. I'd be willing to give the Marlins Mountcastle for him, but not much more. 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Jim Bowden (https://theathletic.com/5138791/2023/12/15/mlb-offseason-trade-targets/)

seems to think that the O's are waiting for the pitching market to settle and then the trades will happen. He mentioned Edward Cabrera from the Marlins as being available. He seems like an interesting young SP who the Marlins apparently would trade for 3 MLB ready players. Seems like the O's could meet that demand without having to trade any of their top 5 prospects. Bowden seems to think the Rays will be in on him but the O's also match up well. 

Cabrera is 26 and not eligible for arb until 2026. He throws 5 pitches and misses bats. His change up is elite and his 4SFB sits 96.2 ave MPH. He had 118 Ks in just under 100 IP last year. He's the type of young, controllable SP that you plug into the #4-5 spot in the rotation and see what he can do. 

How’s Cabrera any different than DL Hall other than he’s paid his rookie tax?  High K%, high BB%, a few plus pitches…

I’d be happy if we landed Cabrera with non-top 5 guys.  Even a Mounty+ deal.

[Sports Guy]

I’d take ECab in a heartbeat and hope our development team can harness his control and command. If so, he has a high upside.

He’s not getting 3 MLers unless we are talking about guys like Akin and Baker or mediocre role players like that also going back in the deal. 
 

[Sports Guy]

Cabrera is a perfect target for what I wanted our second starter addition to be but if he is all we got, that’s way better than a Gibson type signing imo, especially if we can trade Mountcastle or Santander to get him.

[Moose Milligan]

After reading a lot of Bowden’s articles over the years he doesn’t strike me as a guy who really has his ear to the ground when it comes to trades. His articles seem to be a lot of “this could make sense for these teams,” not “my sources are telling me this…”

[Just Regular]

Lourdes Gurriel reportedly getting a $42mm guarantee.    He is almost exactly 1 year older than Santander, so age-wise would be apples to apples selling age 30-32 seasons.

Santander is 109 OPS+ in 2200 PA, and Lourdes G. is 115 OPS+ in 2300 PA.

[bpilktree]

Santander and Urias for ECab seems like a decent trade for both teams.   It gives Marlins middle of the order bat and good utility type player.  We get low cost controllable starter with high upside but still a work in progress to reach that.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

8 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Santander and Urias for ECab seems like a decent trade for both teams.   It gives Marlins middle of the order bat and good utility type player.  We get low cost controllable starter with high upside but still a work in progress to reach that.  

Would you do that if you were the Marlins GM?