What are your expectations for Grayson Rodriguez in 2024?

[Jim'sKid26]

I was recently looking at the Marcel projections for GRod for 2024 published in BBRef:

7-5 with 121 IP. 127 Ks and 42 BB. 8.6 H/9, 9.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

If this is in anyway accurate I think we all would be very disappointed.  Considering this was his 2023 (age 23) season:

7-4 with 122 IP. 129 Ks with 42 BB and ERA+ = 95. 8.9 H/9, 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9

Now many of us watched GRod have a stellar second half of the season. Projecting him to repeat his production seems like a gross underestimate.

So, if we use a similarly accomplished young pitcher as an age 24 comp for Grayson, what do we see? Let's use Gerrit Cole. He was a tremendously accomplished high school pitcher who was drafted in the first round (#28) after his senior season coming out of Orange Lutheran HS in California by the Yankees in 2008. He didn't sign and instead when to UCLA. He was then taken 1st overall by the Pirates in the 2011 draft. Grayson was taken with the 11th pick out of Central Heights HS in Texas in 2018. Their prospect pedigrees are similar although Cole went to college while Grayson went to the minors. Both had great success in their respective development paths. Both are RH power pitchers who throw very hard. Grayson is 6'5" and 230 lbs. Cole is 6'4" 220 lbs. 

So how did Cole do in his age 23 season in 2014 playing for the Pirates in the National League before the advent of the NL DH:

11-5 with 138 IP. 138 Ks and 40 BB. ERA+ = 98 with 8.3 H/9, 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. a solid season and a bit better than Grayson's 2023. 

Now look at Cole's age 24 season in 2015:

19-8 with 208 IP. 202 Ks with 44 BB. ERA+ = 149 with 7.9 H/9, 8.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He was 4th in the NL CYA voting behind Arrieta, Greinke and Kershaw.

While I don't think the extent of the improvement that Cole experienced between 2014 and 2015 is likely for Grayson, it is not outside the realm of possibility. I think few of us on here think Grayson is going to regress, barring injury. What level of production he delivers in 2024 will go a long way to determining where the O's go in 2024. 

[Ripken]

So, they think he's going to have the exact same season?  Alrighty.

[Frobby]

I find ZiPS useful because Szymborski not only publishes his median projection, but also his 80% and 20% projection.   For Grayson, those are 4.07 ERA, 3.49 ERA and 4.69 ERA, respectively.   So, “expect” 4.07 but “hope for” 3.49.   And, there’s a 20% chance he’s better than that.   I’ll definitely take the under on 4.07 given how last season trended.   One thing I’m not sure these projection algorithms take into account is how the previous season trended, which I think is particularly important for young pitchers (though I have no data to back that up, just common sense logic).

[Just Regular]

I think Rodriguez or Bradish have an April AL Pitcher of the Month opportunity.

BAL Games 1-6-11-16-21-26: LAA, KC, at BOS, MIN, at KC, OAK

BAL Games 2-7-12-17-22-27: LAA, at PIT, at BOS, MIN, at LAA, OAK

You would never predict a 6-0 month but the Orioles on Grayson/Bradish days should be strong favorites.

He's never yet performed like him in the majors in a large sample, but I agree with the OP Gerrit Cole is a fair ballpark comp on pedigree.    Had he gone to college and performed approximately like he did from June 2018-June 2021, oh yeah would he have gone ahead of Casey Mize as the 1-1 that year.

Juan Soto's Yankees play a 4-game series at OPACY as April turns to May, but in that opening run of nine 3-game series, I don't think I'd take a guaranteed 17-10 result even though that's a ~100-win pace.

I hope Means throws Game 3, but I don't rule him out of Game 1 yet.     

[RZNJ]

180 IP, 140 H, 50 BB, 200 K.   3.00 ERA.   16-9

Now, he knows he can do it.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

180 IP, 140 H, 50 BB, 200 K.   3.00 ERA.   16-9

Now, he knows he can do it.   

That's a lot of round numbers.

 

[ScGO's]

If he.gets 180+ innings, his numbers will probably be pretty darn good 

[emmett16]

If he's healthy, I expect him to be a top 10 pitcher in the AL.  I have extremely lofty expectations for him.  I really believe in the talent.  After 163.1 IP 185ks & 61 BBs (across both levels) this year and after what he did from 7/28 until the end of the season, I expect him to do something like 185 IP / 190 Ks / 55 BBs / 3.00 ERA.  I truly believe the only thing that can get in his way is his health.  

[dystopia]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I find ZiPS useful because Szymborski not only publishes his median projection, but also his 80% and 20% projection.   For Grayson, those are 4.07 ERA, 3.49 ERA and 4.69 ERA, respectively.   So, “expect” 4.07 but “hope for” 3.49.   And, there’s a 20% chance he’s better than that.   I’ll definitely take the under on 4.07 given how last season trended.   [b]One thing I’m not sure these projection algorithms take into account is how the previous season trended, which I think is particularly important for young pitchers (though I have no data to back that up, just common sense logic).[/b]

Which is why these projections are always a waste of time. Even Bradish’s awesome season was somewhat predictable simply because of how he pitched in the 2nd half of 2022. 

[Can_of_corn]

Brain Matusz-

2010 season:

First half- 3-9 4.77 ERA

Second half- 7-3 3.63 ERA.

Hey, he's trending up!  He's looking pretty decent there, finishing strong!

 

2011 season:

1-9 10.69 ERA

 

A young pitcher having a stronger second half isn't a guarantee of future success.

[oriole]

I predict he’ll pitch like an ace sometimes and pitch like garbage at others. If I had to put a final line out there it’d have to be somewhere between 3.50 ERA and 6.00 ERA. He’ll strike out at least one batter. 

[Moose Milligan]

CYA winner. Anything less is a disappointment. 

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Brain Matusz-

2010 season:

First half- 3-9 4.77 ERA

Second half- 7-3 3.63 ERA.

Hey, he's trending up!  He's looking pretty decent there, finishing strong!

 

2011 season:

1-9 10.69 ERA

 

A young pitcher having a stronger second half isn't a guarantee of future success.

It’s also not not a guarantee of future success. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

CYA winner. Anything less is a disappointment. 

Sounds like you are dismissing Bradish!

[Just Regular]

High School Arms are a well-known low probability demographic but you win big if you hit.

Even pushing back one year more to DL Hall's year, I believe Grayson's 2023 is the only one by a High School Arm taken in the ~Top 20 of the draft to hit 2800 pitches in a season.

2017-2018 saw 10 guys go that high, including DL and Grayson; 2019-2022 only saw 7 more.

Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Matthew Liberatore and Quinn Priester also had more or less full 2023 seasons in the 2200-2600 range.

On a basic level, my frame for understanding Grayson is he's a kid the baseball gods touched, and the surgeons haven't got any of those gifts yet.     Last 5 years, fWAR only sees '19 Cole, '21 Burnes and '21 Wheeler as 7-win seasons but I believe he'll challenge that in a Career Year if his talent stays intact all the way through his prime.

The six years the Orioles have - if I had to guess one pitcher who will lead MLB in Pitching WAR from 2024-2029, I'd be tempted to single out Grayson, with Strider and Kirby maybe the odds-on favorites.