Ohtani and Kremer mentioned in the same breath

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-dean-kremer-and-fastballs-that-arent-as-fast-as-other-fastballs/
 

 

[sportsfan8703]

Interesting stuff. I see Kremer’s GB% was at around 39% the last two seasons as compared to being at just 30% the time prior. So the sinker is doing its job. 

Just taking a deeper dive into Kremer and it’s easy to see… he gets hammered versus LH hitters. It doesn’t matter if it’s home or away. He needs to improve his Change Up. 

[Billy F-Face3]

15 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He needs to improve his Change Up. 

Or learn the screwball.

[Malike]

Kremer is criminally underrated on this site. He's oft talked about like he's a number 5 or trade fodder, he's not good enough for the O's rotation, but sure, he has trade value. Last year was really his first full season, he's pitched 370 innings in his career and he's young. He's a smart pitcher and is going to get better I believe. We talk about giving Stroman all kinds of money, you know, a guy who doesn't miss bats, whose statcast data has been trending down in a big way for the past 3 years, but we think he'd be a top starter for us.

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

Kremer is criminally underrated on this site. He's oft talked about like he's a number 5 or trade fodder, he's not good enough for the O's rotation, but sure, he has trade value. Last year was really his first full season, he's pitched 370 innings in his career and he's young. He's a smart pitcher and is going to get better I believe. We talk about giving Stroman all kinds of money, you know, a guy who doesn't miss bats, whose statcast data has been trending down in a big way for the past 3 years, but we think he'd be a top starter for us.

Kremer is a warrior and not just because of the samurai bun.  He posts, battles, slowly improves, and gives the team a chance to win every time out.  He’s the quiet horse in the rotation.  We are lucky to have him.  There is no doubt in my mind that he isn’t taking last season’s data and applying it in the off-season to improve his craft. 

[emmett16]

My guess on why they are throwing the pitch slower is to go for the ever allusive “late break” that can’t be defined/identified by regular tracking systems (yet). Teams/labs may have figured out how to track & how to teach for late break but that info isn’t out.  A sinker benefits more than any other pitch from non -magnus effects (spin).  IE, having more spin doesn’t necessarily mean you get more movement.  More velocity always is better (all things considered). My guess is they are working the release location, arm slot, grip, etc. to get max seam shift wake and late break.  Once they figure out the recipe, they can ratchet it up a tick. 
 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/03/the-impact-of-seam-shifted-wakes-on-pitch-quality/

[btdart20]

I doubt they go for increased velo on the sinker.  The SigBot sees the results, so he’ll follow the numbers.  And it’s as much about how the sinker and 4-seam compliment each other with velo, profile, angle of entry….

How much of his “outperformance of expectations “ is abut not using the right inputs for the math?  So often we assume a regression to mean without fully understanding the why.  Even the smart guy writing the article has gaps.
 

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I doubt they go for increased velo on the sinker.  The SigBot sees the results, so he’ll follow the numbers.  And it’s as much about how the sinker and 4-seam compliment each other with velo, profile, angle of entry….

How much of his “outperformance of expectations “ is abut not using the right inputs for the math?  So often we assume a regression to mean without fully understanding the why.  Even the smart guy writing the article has gaps.
 

Yep.  As noted in the article I posted there is no discernible difference for a RHP in movement profile between sinkers in the 2250-1750RPM range.  
 

The article also points to flaws and discrepancies in the measuring systems.  So we can’t take all the data as 100% gospel.  
 

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion Sig has figured out how to measure late break.  There’s a massive difference in a pitch with say20” in movement over 55’ (assuming 5’5” extension from rubber) and 20” in movement over the last 20’ or even 30’ of the pitch’s trajectory.  Meaning you could have a guy who’s movement profile is poor on Baseball Savant, but if that “poor” movement comes in the last 1/3 of travel, you have an elite pitch. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by emmett16

[Jim'sKid26]

So Leo Morgenstern writes a lot about baseball. I'm pretty certain he's never pitched, but I could be wrong. Here's his personal website: https://www.leomorgenstern.com/

He makes a couple of interesting points about Kremer.

1) “Kremer’s 91.6-mph version of the pitch was one of the slower sinkers in the game.”

2) “For the first time in his career, he throws his four-seamer harder than the average starting pitcher. It now sits around 95 mph, topping out at 97.5 mph.” Kudos to the O's pitching development staff!

3) “Kremer’s sinker is working particularly well in conjunction with his four-seam fastball. He’s been throwing more sinkers in the zone this year, which he can do because he’s keeping hitters off guard with velocity differential and not just movement. This, in turn, gives him more freedom to throw his four-seamer up and out of the zone, an area where his four-seamer thrives. He has also added some horizontal break to his four-seamer; that gives it a more similar movement profile to his sinker, but that’s not such a problem when the two pitches are different speeds. In addition, Kremer is throwing his sinker with significantly less spin this year. Last season, his sinker was spinning at 2,139 rpm, perfectly normal for its speed. This year, Kremer has reduced his spin rate to 2,028 rpm even though his velocity is actually a few tenths of a mile faster. Accounting for velocity, he now throws one of the least spinny sinkers in the game. Low-spin fastballs tend to induce more groundballs, which is usually the desired effect of throwing a sinker. Thus, perhaps Kremer is more concerned with keeping his sinker spin rate as low as possible than increasing his velocity. If that’s the case, he’s doing a splendid job so far.” Once again, kudos to the O's pitching development guys.

 

I think Kremer is a very valuable asset and is likely to continue to improve. If indeed he has a 5-6 mph differential on his two fastballs and one is a low spinrate 2SFB that has induce GB at a good rate and the other is an above average 4SFB that he can locate up in the zone, he can be a very effective SP. 

If we look at his Baseball Savant numbers (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dean-kremer-665152?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb), his FB run value is 91%. That's very good. His breaking ball and offspeed numbers are 9 and 8 respectively. Those suck.  He throws 6 pitches: 4SFB (37.1%), Cutter (23.9%), 2SFB (14.6%), CU (12.2%), CB (8.9%) and Sweeper (3.3%).  

If you look at his xWOBA on the pitches: 

4SFB - 0.314

Cutter - 0.306

2SFB - 0.314

CU - 0.312

CB  - 0.404

SW - 0.299

So given all of this data it would seem that perhaps ditching the curve ball and throwing the sweeper as the primary breaking pitch might make some sense.  Interestingly his cutter is his 2nd most effective pitch if we go by WOBA. It also has the highest Whiff% and Putaway%. 

Finally, he throws a slow CB at 78.1 mph and a slow sweeper at 82.8 mph while his Cutter is at 88.8 mph. 

So maybe simplify things for him and throw the 4SFB more, the sweeper a bit more, the 2SFB and the Cutter about the same while avoiding the CB. Just my $0.02

[btdart20]

38 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Leo Morgenstern writes a lot about baseball. I'm pretty certain he's never pitched, but I could be wrong. Here's his personal website: https://www.leomorgenstern.com/

He makes a couple of interesting points about Kremer.

1) “Kremer’s 91.6-mph version of the pitch was one of the slower sinkers in the game.”

2) “For the first time in his career, he throws his four-seamer harder than the average starting pitcher. It now sits around 95 mph, topping out at 97.5 mph.” Kudos to the O's pitching development staff!

3) “Kremer’s sinker is working particularly well in conjunction with his four-seam fastball. He’s been throwing more sinkers in the zone this year, which he can do because he’s keeping hitters off guard with velocity differential and not just movement. This, in turn, gives him more freedom to throw his four-seamer up and out of the zone, an area where his four-seamer thrives. He has also added some horizontal break to his four-seamer; that gives it a more similar movement profile to his sinker, but that’s not such a problem when the two pitches are different speeds. In addition, Kremer is throwing his sinker with significantly less spin this year. Last season, his sinker was spinning at 2,139 rpm, perfectly normal for its speed. This year, Kremer has reduced his spin rate to 2,028 rpm even though his velocity is actually a few tenths of a mile faster. Accounting for velocity, he now throws one of the least spinny sinkers in the game. Low-spin fastballs tend to induce more groundballs, which is usually the desired effect of throwing a sinker. Thus, perhaps Kremer is more concerned with keeping his sinker spin rate as low as possible than increasing his velocity. If that’s the case, he’s doing a splendid job so far.” Once again, kudos to the O's pitching development guys.

 

I think Kremer is a very valuable asset and is likely to continue to improve. If indeed he has a 5-6 mph differential on his two fastballs and one is a low spinrate 2SFB that has induce GB at a good rate and the other is an above average 4SFB that he can locate up in the zone, he can be a very effective SP. 

If we look at his Baseball Savant numbers (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dean-kremer-665152?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb), his FB run value is 91%. That's very good. His breaking ball and offspeed numbers are 9 and 8 respectively. Those suck.  He throws 6 pitches: 4SFB (37.1%), Cutter (23.9%), 2SFB (14.6%), CU (12.2%), CB (8.9%) and Sweeper (3.3%).  

If you look at his xWOBA on the pitches: 

4SFB - 0.314

Cutter - 0.306

2SFB - 0.314

CU - 0.312

CB  - 0.404

SW - 0.299

So given all of this data it would seem that perhaps ditching the curve ball and throwing the sweeper as the primary breaking pitch might make some sense.  Interestingly his cutter is his 2nd most effective pitch if we go by WOBA. It also has the highest Whiff% and Putaway%. 

Finally, he throws a slow CB at 78.1 mph and a slow sweeper at 82.8 mph while his Cutter is at 88.8 mph. 

So maybe simplify things for him and throw the 4SFB more, the sweeper a bit more, the 2SFB and the Cutter about the same while avoiding the CB. Just my $0.02

Those sucky pitches keep hitters off balance too.  He probably needs them to help his better pitches be better.

I suspect there’s only so much 4S velo a guy can develop mechanically.  I’m not betting on him increasing the velo differential.  If he’s going to take another step forward, it’s probably some other way.

Even if he “just” does what he’s done the last 2 years, that obviously has value in any rotation.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Yep.  As noted in the article I posted there is no discernible difference for a RHP in movement profile between sinkers in the 2250-1750RPM range.  
 

The article also points to flaws and discrepancies in the measuring systems.  So we can’t take all the data as 100% gospel.  
 

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion Sig has figured out how to measure late break.  There’s a massive difference in a pitch with say20” in movement over 55’ (assuming 5’5” extension from rubber) and 20” in movement over the last 20’ or even 30’ of the pitch’s trajectory. 

Interesting thought.  If Sig can do it, can others?  How long do we have before they catch up?

Or is the SI trendy like the sweeper?

Or does it represent a fuller understanding of what it takes to mess with a hitter’s timing/swing path?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Interesting thought.  If Sig can do it, can others?  How long do we have before they catch up?

Or is the SI trendy like the sweeper?

Or does it represent a fuller understanding of what it takes to mess with a hitter’s timing/swing path?

Do we think that Sig has created something since coming to Baltimore that is that much more advanced than what he created for the Astros?

[Jim'sKid26]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Those sucky pitches keep hitters off balance too.  He probably needs them to help his better pitches be better.

I suspect there’s only so much 4S velo a guy can develop mechanically.  I’m not betting on him increasing the velo differential.  If he’s going to take another step forward, it’s probably some other way.

Even if he “just” does what he’s done the last 2 years, that obviously has value in any rotation.

I agree with you to a point. 

I think his fastballs are fine.  And I am not sure he needs to throw either 1 of them any harder.

My point is bringing out the fact that his fast ball value is near elite, as was likely the reason he was chosen for the article that @Frobby sided in the opening post, and his breaking ball and off speed values are completely trash.  Yet if you break them down a little bit more it is really his curve ball that hurts him most.  That was my main point.

[emmett16]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do we think that Sig has created something since coming to Baltimore that is that much more advanced than what he created for the Astros?

I think it’s a continual work in progress.  I imagine it’s better today than it was in April. 

[emmett16]

38 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Interesting thought.  If Sig can do it, can others?  How long do we have before they catch up?

Or is the SI trendy like the sweeper?

Or does it represent a fuller understanding of what it takes to mess with a hitter’s timing/swing path?

I’ve often read that in the copy cat world of baseball you get about an 18 month competitive advantage before others start to catch on .

The SI came back into popularity as all the hitters started to better defend the high 4 seamer and changed their swing and cut down on attack angle.  Until batters make a change, it’ll likely stick around.

Sounds to me that the really good sweepers are guys that throw the slider and get more SSW.  So my guess would be the guys that get the extra movement will stick with the sweeper and the so so ones will drop them.  If you can tunnel the sweeper with a CU that darts in the opposite direction that would be lethal. 
 

I think the trick will always be timing.  If you can throw two pitches from the same exact release point with two movement & speed profiles you have something to work with.  Being able to do that consistently and with command is a whole other story.