Why Ryan O’Hearn Must Go (Sorry, Ryan)

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

Bird in the hand.  Perhaps he and his agent didn't feel overly confident that they would win at arbitration.  Easy for us to talk about risking a sure $300k for a possible $600k, but in reality that is a pretty big gamble.  Locking in that $300k is likely meaningful to a man with his prospects for the future.  Makes total sense to me.

Ok.  Makes zero sense to me.  Good chance they could have settled in the middle without giving up the FA year.  If getting the 300K was conditional on signing the club option I would point my nose towards Denmark and inhale.

Sure, chances are the club option won’t get picked up and he’s a FA anyway.   However, if he has a good enough year for the club option to be picked up then he’d most likely be better off trying to get the best FA deal he could get.  There’s just such little incentive for him giving them the club option.

Smart for Elias and the Orioles.  Dumb for O’Hearn and his agent.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's not a great argument IMO because it was expected that Cowser would look good defensively. Guys like Markakis and Hays and Mullins did not struggle defensively as rookie OFers. So it's weird and concerning that Cowser did.  

Actually, Mullins did struggle defensively as a rookie outfielder in his first stint: -5 Rtot, -6 Rdrs, -6.5 UZR.   Like Cowser, that was quite inconsistent with his MiL scouting report.  That’s one of the reasons I wouldn’t get too worked up about how Cowser looked in his brief audition last season.  

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Actually, Mullins did struggle defensively as a rookie outfielder in his first stint: -5 Rtot, -6 Rdrs, -6.5 UZR.   Like Cowser, that was quite inconsistent with his MiL scouting report.  That’s one of the reasons I wouldn’t get too worked up about how Cowser looked in his brief audition last season.  

Fair enough, good pull. I was going off memory, but now that you mention it, it does ring a bell. 

[Number5]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

There’s just such little incentive for him giving them the club option.

I don't get why you keep saying $300k isn't much incentive.  That is the root of our difference of opinion.  O'Hearn isn't a superstar to whom $300k is pocket change, IMO.

[Just Regular]

It hits me similar to Jordan Lyles' contract option.

Plus another "multi-year" belt notch as Elias sloooowly warms up for the great LTC negotiations to come.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, he was going to be a free agent next year.   I think he was very likely to lose his arbitration, and not that likely to get a FA contract exceeding the price of the option.  So, he took the extra $300 k.

According to Cots, he’s arb 4 next year.

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

According to Cots, he’s arb 4 next year.

Well, according to BB-ref and Fangraphs, he’s got more than 5 years of service.  Cot’s says it’s 4.170.   So, I guess we don’t know for sure.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, Number5 said:

I don't get why you keep saying $300k isn't much incentive.  That is the root of our difference of opinion.  O'Hearn isn't a superstar to whom $300k is pocket change, IMO.

Again, teams settle with guys in the middle with no strings (club option) attached.   300K isn’t pocket change.  However, if I play well enough to have the 7.5M club option picked up then there’s a good chance I could make significantly more as a FA.   Agree to disagree.   O’Hearn will have made 4.9M between 23-24.  He might have gotten 3.8 in arbitration.  He could have attempted to settle at 3.5 without signing the club option.  I don’t think it was smart on his part.

[ChosenOne21]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

According to Fangraphs he has over 5 years of service time heading into this year so he would have been a FA after this season.  If so, signing a club option for 2025 with no guaranteed money makes no sense at all.  To pick up an extra 300K and avoiding arbitration where he might have picked up an extra 600K?   I must be missing something.

I wonder if he and his agent thought the Orioles would move one of Cowser, Kjerstad, Santander, Mountcastle, Stowers, or anyone else who would compete with him for playing time, increasing his leverage. When they didn't, maybe it was time to retreat to safety?

[btdart20]

Seems to shift some of the hot seat to RHH Mountcastle.  Mounty will make $4.1m this year and $7m+ for 2025 isn't far-fetched. 

But a $7.5m LHH paired with a Mayo...?  Could be part of the long-game RIP hedge.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Again, teams settle with guys in the middle with no strings (club option) attached.

It's been reported that the Orioles don't.  If you wish to believe that O'Hearn and his agent aren't very smart, knock yourself out.  As I said, it makes total sense to me and I'm frankly surprised at how hard you are working at trying to create some big mystery where none exists.  O'Hearn didn't want to go double or nothing on $300k because that is serious money to him.  It really is as simple as that, IMO.

[spleen1015]

We really need the season to start.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, according to BB-ref and Fangraphs, he’s got more than 5 years of service.  Cot’s says it’s 4.170.   So, I guess we don’t know for sure.  

I would trust Cots more. 4.170 service time is 5 years of service time if it was done “normal” but he has been optioned and been in the minors so much that I would bet that actually falls short of qualifying for the 5th full year. He obviously would be considered a super 2 guy though. 

Edited February 14 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would trust Cots more. 4.170 service time is 5 years of service time if it was done “normal” but he has been optioned and been in the minors so much that I would bet that actually falls short of qualifying for the 5th full year. He obviously would be considered a super 2 guy though. 

MLBTR

”That O’Hearn agreed to a club option for the 2025 season is an unexpected benefit for the Orioles. The lefty-swinging slugger had been slated to reach open market following the 2024 campaign, but Baltimore now gains control over what would’ve been his first free-agent season.”

[Since1984]

40 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Seems to shift some of the hot seat to RHH Mountcastle.  Mounty will make $4.1m this year and $7m+ for 2025 isn't far-fetched. 

But a $7.5m LHH paired with a Mayo...?  Could be part of the long-game RIP hedge.

According to fa graphs, Mountcastle has two options remaining. If Ryan M. struggles, next man up!

Edited February 14 by Since1984
Rm