Why Ryan O’Hearn Must Go (Sorry, Ryan)

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I prefer the data driven.  If Santander was positioned where O’Hearn was last night would he have made that catch?  I’m not so sure.   According to 2023 Savant, O’Hearn is significantly (27.7 to 26.7) faster than Santander.   

Does 1 ft/sec doesn't really matter that much when fielding balls in the outfield? Seems that there are several more important factors.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Does 1 ft/sec doesn't really matter that much when fielding balls in the outfield? Seems that there are several more important factors.

There are a lot of factors.  You don’t think one foot per second is an important factor?

[RZNJ]

Speed

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Does 1 ft/sec doesn't really matter that much when fielding balls in the outfield? Seems that there are several more important factors.

 

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Does 1 ft/sec doesn't really matter that much when fielding balls in the outfield? Seems that there are several more important factors.

That’s why I’d like to see the catch probability.  It looked like he got a good jump and took a good angle.   Speed isn’t everything but it’s important.

[DirtyBird]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There are a lot of factors.  You don’t think one foot per second is an important factor?

Not really. Because sprint speed isn't measured while tracking fly balls.

Reaction time, route to ball, body position, and familiarity with warning track and wall are more important.

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Not really. Because sprint speed isn't measured while tracking fly balls.

Reaction time, route to ball, body position, and familiarity with warning track and wall are more important.

As I said there are a lot of factors.   O’Hearn is apparently faster than Santander.  I can use a more extreme example.  If Enrique Bradfield was positioned the same as O’Hearn and got the same jump, would speed then become an important factor in reaching a ball?

[DirtyBird]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

As I said there are a lot of factors.   O’Hearn is apparently faster than Santander.  I can use a more extreme example.  If Enrique Bradfield was positioned the same as O’Hearn and got the same jump, would speed then become an important factor in reaching a ball?

Sure, but Bradfield is a pure outfielder and the ft/sec gap between he and O'Hearn is probably double the one between O'Hearn & Santander.

A more fair hypothetical would be Westburg, who is a ft/sec faster than O'Hearn, but takes most of his reps in the infield. 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Sure, but Bradfield is a pure outfielder and the ft/sec gap between he and O'Hearn is probably double the one between O'Hearn & Santander.

A more fair hypothetical would be Westburg, who is a ft/sec faster than O'Hearn, but takes most of his reps in the infield. 

All other things being equal, speed matters.  That’s my point.   I’m still waiting for @Frobby or @Tony-OH to get the catch probability.   I’m fine with what the metrics say.

[DirtyBird]

29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All other things being equal, speed matters.  

But other things were not equal. That is the point.

[Moose Milligan]

Going on record as saying I'm a big O'Hearn fan.  That doesn't mean I want to see him in the outfield again, but I hope he continues to rake.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

But other things were not equal. That is the point.

We know there are other factors.  We don’t know how O’Hearn equates to other outfielders regarding each of those factors on that catch.  Do you know for a fact that Austin Hays or Anthony Santander starting from the exact same position catch that ball?

It’s why I keep asking what the catch probability was.  

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

How can a team that has 4 top prospects stuck in AAA in large part for defensive development reasons (Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Norby), and one fully baked and perfectly acceptable natural corner OF who has long since graduated AAA (Stowers), be playing Ryan O’Hearn in RF? On the 5th game of the season with no injuries?

Absolutely incomprehensible cognitive dissonance. Ryan O’Hearn starting in RF while Kjerstad and Stowers, actual RFs, together hit 3 HR in AAA on the same day.

 

There is no reason that Ryan O' Hearn should be playing outfield on a contending team in anything other than an emergency. He's a DH/1B and EMERGENCY outfielder. I think they had planned all along for Cowser to start in LF and give Hays off, but the weather made them decide to put O'Hearn in RF instead of Santander. 

The fact that we ran a lineup out there that included Kemp at 2B and O'Hearn in RF is pretty sad when there are better players in AAA. But Elias likes depth and tries to get away with these guys playing out of position. 

I will say though, you can't on one hand tell hitting prospects like Holliday, Mayo, Norby and Kjerstad to go back and improve defense when you are running a guy like O'Hearn out to RF to start a game. It absolutely makes him look hypocritical. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty much agree but I would love to know the catch probability on that ball.  I was on gamefeed on Savant and don’t see that category per game.  O’Hearn looked like he got a good jump and took a decent angle.  He looked awkward going up for the ball like he thought he was about to hit the wall BUT I’d like to see how many RF actually catch that one.  Can anyone tell us or point out how to find the catch probability on that triple?

This won't be available until sometime today when baseball savant updates. They don't have catch probability available to the general public in the game feed for some reason. 

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think it would have been a great catch if he made t but that is why I would like to see the catch probability.  

The problem with catch probability is it doesn't factor in some things like rain, wind, sun.  I think the players were having a much harder time catching balls last night in general because of the conditions which was rain and wind.   That made his catch harder then the Santander catch the other night even though probability might show it as an easier catch/  

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty much agree but I would love to know the catch probability on that ball.  I was on gamefeed on Savant and don’t see that category per game.  O’Hearn looked like he got a good jump and took a decent angle.  He looked awkward going up for the ball like he thought he was about to hit the wall BUT I’d like to see how many RF actually catch that one.  Can anyone tell us or point out how to find the catch probability on that triple?

Strangely, the feed updated but that play is not on O'Hearn's catch probability list. Not sure why.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Strangely, the feed updated but that play is not on O'Hearn's catch probability list. Not sure why.

But they do have the catch probability on a ball O’Hearn hit on his defensive chart.   Administrative error, I’m guessing. 

I also think catch probability is a somewhat inaccurate measure.  But, it’s way better than nothing.  A description of the methodology can be found here.  They do adjust for direction and proximity to a wall, in addition to using hang time and distance needed.  

One thing catch probability has made me appreciate is that getting a good jump is extremely important.  You see many catches that look pretty routine that have a relatively low catch probability, because the fielder got a good jump, whereas diving catches may not score well if the fielder got a slow start.  For example, Cowser’s catch yesterday of the ball near where the wall juts in got a 60% catch probability, whereas Santander’s 1st inning catch in the RCF wall on Monday had a 90% catch probability.