Why Ryan O’Hearn Must Go (Sorry, Ryan)

[Aglets]

Thinking about starting a thread about why O'Hearn has to stay.

Santander might be the one whose spot is vulnerable when Kjerstad is ready.  Not because of his slow start per se.........but more because of it being his walk year.

[Matt Bennett]

29 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Thinking about starting a thread about why O'Hearn has to stay.

Santander might be the one whose spot is vulnerable when Kjerstad is ready.  Not because of his slow start per se.........but more because of it being his walk year.

Lunacy. Santander will be hitting in the middle of the order for the Orioles in October of 2024. 

[Conway12]

Three balls to deep center last night and a laser to the Left Fielder. 

[Aglets]

14 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Lunacy. Santander will be hitting in the middle of the order for the Orioles in October of 2024. 

Maybe.   I think "lunacy" is a tad overstated.  It wouldn't surprise me if Elias keeps everyone for sure.

Do you think Kjerstad will be in the lineup in October of 2024?   If so how do you expect them to make room for him?

[Matt Bennett]

33 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Do you think Kjerstad will be in the lineup in October of 2024?   If so how do you expect them to make room for him?

Perhaps. I think, roster makeup wise, Kjerstad could fill in if any of Hays, Santander, O'Hearn, Mounty, Cowser, or Mullins got hurt. Kjerstad as a Mullins replacement (Cowser/Mateo/Hays to CF, Kjerstad to the corners/DH) is the stretchiest but it could still work. That's a very good insurance policy to have. Without injuries, having Santander/O'Hearn/Mounty/Cowser mash in MLB and Kjerstad mash in AAA is fine for 2024.

[Bemorewins]

45 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Maybe.   I think "lunacy" is a tad overstated.  It wouldn't surprise me if Elias keeps everyone for sure.

Do you think Kjerstad will be in the lineup in October of 2024?   If so how do you expect them to make room for him?

I don't think a definitive answer can be given regarding this question as there are so many factors that could effect this decision.

Kjerstad could be the one who is traded. Though I guess in many ways that decision is tied to the health and performance of Bradish and Means and if we need a starter around the deadline.

If Kjerstad is not dealt, it is unlikely that the Orioles simply "make room for him" if everyone in the lineup continues to perform well. However, if he is still on the roster after the deadline, I expect that the plan will be for either him or Mayo to replace Santander next season. 

If Westburg as anything close to this kind of player, then there is no probable path to Mayo displacing him on the grass. And O'Hearn is under contract for next year at a reasonable figure, it's probably not likely that he gets moved. Which would mean only one spot for Mayo/Kjerstad (Santander's).

Given how Elias has operated historically and his ultra conservative approach, it is unlikely that he "makes room for prospects" in the middle of a pennant race. He seems to have a penchant for preferring the more known quantity for as long as possible, over replacing that "known quantity" with an asset that has much more volatility. Just my 2 cents..

[Aglets]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think a definitive answer can be given regarding this question as there are so many factors that could effect this decision.

Kjerstad could be the one who is traded. Though I guess in many ways that decision is tied to the health and performance of Bradish and Means and if we need a starter around the deadline.

If Kjerstad is not dealt, it is unlikely that the Orioles simply "make room for him" if everyone in the lineup continues to perform well. However, if he is still on the roster after the deadline, I expect that the plan will be for either him or Mayo to replace Santander next season. 

If Westburg as anything close to this kind of player, then there is no probable path to Mayo displacing him on the grass. And O'Hearn is under contract for next year at a reasonable figure, it's probably not likely that he gets moved. Which would mean only one spot for Mayo/Kjerstad (Santander's).

Given how Elias has operated historically and his ultra conservative approach, it is unlikely that he "makes room for prospects" in the middle of a pennant race. He seems to have a penchant for preferring the more known quantity for as long as possible, over replacing that "known quantity" with an asset that has much more volatility. Just my 2 cents..

I actually agree with most of this.  It definitely seems to be in Elias's nature to hold onto guys as long as possible and to be extra sure that a prospect is dominating at a level before promoting them.

He also was on record recently as saying it does no one any good to let guys just mash in the minors for long periods of time.  So we will see.  Kjerstad has seemed to cool off significantly since the Tides stopped playing against Charlotte.   So he probably does want to see more from him.

[24fps]

3 hours ago, Conway12 said:

Three balls to deep center last night and a laser to the Left Fielder. 

So far, Ryan O'Hearn is a great story and one that I really enjoy watching.  I hope it continues. 

Middle reliever is right around the consensus value we had on him in January wasn't it?  Of course in January, we were focused on packaging Kjerstad in a Cease deal so maybe trading O'Hearn would have been unwise.  Or was it Cowser we wanted to put in the package?  Gosh we were stupid lmao.

[Camden_yardbird]

7 hours ago, Aglets said:

Thinking about starting a thread about why O'Hearn has to stay.

Santander might be the one whose spot is vulnerable when Kjerstad is ready.  Not because of his slow start per se.........but more because of it being his walk year.

Per se?  Santander is top 10 in RBI in the league.  There is no per se.

And has the Holliday experience thus far, or Cowser last year, taught anyone that prospects don't automatically hit even if they were hot in AAA.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, 24fps said:

So far, Ryan O'Hearn is a great story and one that I really enjoy watching.  I hope it continues. 

Middle reliever is right around the consensus value we had on him in January wasn't it?  Of course in January, we were focused on packaging Kjerstad in a Cease deal so maybe trading O'Hearn would have been unwise.  Or was it Cowser we wanted to put in the package?  Gosh we were stupid lmao.

The truth is, a middle reliever is pretty much what you get in a trade of a 1B/COF/DH who has one year of service time left, unless the guy is a superstar level hitter.  

I think though that Trae value doesn’t always define a player’s value to the team he’s on.   There’s no question that O’Hearn brought more value to this team last year than a middle reliever would, and it looks like he will again.  

Now, could we get similar production from Kjerstad or Stowers?   Maybe, but we’re not going to find out unless someone gets hurt.  

 

[24fps]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The truth is, a middle reliever is pretty much what you get in a trade of a 1B/COF/DH who has one year of service time left, unless the guy is a superstar level hitter.  

I think though that Trae value doesn’t always define a player’s value to the team he’s on.   There’s no question that O’Hearn brought more value to this team last year than a middle reliever would, and it looks like he will again.  

Now, could we get similar production from Kjerstad or Stowers?   Maybe, but we’re not going to find out unless someone gets hurt.  

 

There aren't many narratives that are more satisfying to me than an underappreciated guy sticking it to all the doubters - the more relentlessly the better.  O'Hearn got a last chance that objectively he didn't deserve and didn't squander it.  I really respect that. 

I don't know who Jacob Calvin Meyer is, but evidently he has a crystal ball that works.  Might be a valuable dude to get to know.

[Conway12]

32 minutes ago, 24fps said:

There aren't many narratives that are more satisfying to me than an underappreciated guy sticking it to all the doubters - the more relentlessly the better.  O'Hearn got a last chance that objectively he didn't deserve and didn't squander it.  I really respect that. 

I don't know who Jacob Calvin Meyer is, but evidently he has a crystal ball that works.  Might be a valuable dude to get to know.

He's a beat reporter for The Sun

[24fps]

14 minutes ago, Conway12 said:

He's a beat reporter for The Sun

Thanks.  It's been a long time since I visited The Sun.

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, 24fps said:

So far, Ryan O'Hearn is a great story and one that I really enjoy watching.  I hope it continues. 

Middle reliever is right around the consensus value we had on him in January wasn't it?  Of course in January, we were focused on packaging Kjerstad in a Cease deal so maybe trading O'Hearn would have been unwise.  Or was it Cowser we wanted to put in the package?  Gosh we were stupid lmao.

No one thought Burnes was an option.  I think pretty much everyone would have taken the Burns deal over the proposed Cease deals.

[24fps]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No one thought Burnes was an option.  I think pretty much everyone would have taken the Burns deal over the proposed Cease deals.

Myself included.  That said I'm paying attention to see if he can maintain his hot start to the season.  He's looking pretty good right now.