Why Ryan O’Hearn Must Go (Sorry, Ryan)

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But they do have the catch probability on a ball O’Hearn hit on his defensive chart.   Administrative error, I’m guessing. 

I also think catch probability is a somewhat inaccurate measure.  But, it’s way better than nothing.  A description of the methodology can be found here.  They do adjust for direction and proximity to a wall, in addition to using hang time and distance needed.  

One thing catch probability has made me appreciate is that getting a good jump is extremely important.  You see many catches that look pretty routine that have a relatively low catch probability, because the fielder got a good jump, whereas diving catches may not score well if the fielder got a slow start.  For example, Cowser’s catch yesterday of the ball near where the wall juts in got a 60% catch probability, whereas Santander’s 1st inning catch in the RCF wall on Monday had a 90% catch probability.   



 

That's fascinating to me, and I'm not sure I buy it.

Now you have to watch the replay because the live stream is not focused on the fielder for the first second or so, but Santander made a direct beeline to that ball on Monday.  He's not fast, but he takes very good, direct routes and that was a great example of that.

Cowser's catch yesterday he does not take a direct route to the ball.  He goes back first (which is the right thing to do, other than making a direct beeline to where the ball is going to land) and and then he went east-west to the ball.  Not to take away anything from him, that was a fine catch, but I don't buy the 60% probability.  I have little doubt Hays would have caught it, and Hays is not the rangiest LFer.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's fascinating to me, and I'm not sure I buy it.

Now you have to watch the replay because the live stream is not focused on the fielder for the first second or so, but Santander made a direct beeline to that ball on Monday.  He's not fast, but he takes very good, direct routes and that was a great example of that.

Cowser's catch yesterday he does not take a direct route to the ball.  He goes back first (which is the right thing to do, other than making a direct beeline to where the ball is going to land) and and then he went east-west to the ball.  Not to take away anything from him, that was a fine catch, but I don't buy the 60% probability.  I have little doubt Hays would have caught it, and Hays is not the rangiest LFer.

Per Statcast (and I’m just the messenger), Cowser needed to run 84 feet in 5.1 seconds, whereas Santander needed to travel 68 feet in 4.9 seconds.  So, Cowser had 16 more feet to travel and only an extra 0.2 seconds to do it.   Nobody runs 80 ft/sec, so the only logical explanation is that Cowser got a way better jump than Santander did.  I agree that Cowser’s route was not that direct, but Statcast uses distance needed, not distance actually covered.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Per Statcast (and I’m just the messenger), Cowser needed to run 84 feet in 5.1 seconds, whereas Santander needed to travel 68 feet in 4.9 seconds.  So, Cowser had 16 more feet to travel and only an extra 0.2 seconds to do it.   Nobody runs 80 ft/sec, so the only logical explanation is that Cowser got a way better jump than Santander did.  I agree that Cowser’s route was not that direct, but Statcast uses distance needed, not distance actually covered.  

This is all interesting stuff to contemplate.  I wish we could get film of the games like you can get the All-22 film of NFL broadcasts.  It really opens up so much.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

This is all interesting stuff to contemplate.  I wish we could get film of the games like you can get the All-22 film of NFL broadcasts.  It really opens up so much.

Well, you can get film of any play, as @Tony-OHexplained to me a couple of days ago.  Using a laptop, go to the GameCast for the game, click on the Film Room button that’s just underneath the score of the game on the RH side, and film of every single play is there in reverse chronological order.   

if you want the whole game, MLB.TV has condensed versions of all the games with the time between pitches/innings removed.  I’m not a subscriber, but that’s what I’m told.  
 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, you can get film of any play, as @Tony-OHexplained to me a couple of days ago.  Using a laptop, go to the GameCast for the game, click on the Film Room button that’s just underneath the score of the game on the RH side, and film of every single play is there in reverse chronological order.   

if you want the whole game, MLB.TV has condensed versions of all the games with the time between pitches/innings removed.  I’m not a subscriber, but that’s what I’m told.  
 

Well, I have MLB.tv, but the condensed games there are just the broadcast television cameras.

What I'm referring to is on NFL.com you can get game file that doesn't just recreate the broadcast cameras, but is actually filmed from the bird's eye view and allows you to see all 22 players at once, thus why it's called All-22 film, as opposed to the tv broadcast where you can't see the defensive secondary.  It really reveals just how much you miss from the TV broadcast.

I'm almost positive it doesn't exist, but I would like game film that you could review that would show the entire defensive alignment at the moment of contact; I.e. you could actually see the jump he OFers are getting.  I think it would put this data into perspective.

[RZNJ]

I’m no math expert but if the ball is in the air for 5 seconds and Cowser covers one extra foot per second, that’s 5 extra feet even if they get the same exact jump.  5 feet is a significant distance.  Add in a better jump and you could (I’m guessing) be talking about another 5-10 feet.

P.S.  According to sprint speed O’Hearn is a foot faster per second which is why I am not sure Santander makes that catch either.

Edited April 3 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I have MLB.tv, but the condensed games there are just the broadcast television cameras.

What I'm referring to is on NFL.com you can get game file that doesn't just recreate the broadcast cameras, but is actually filmed from the bird's eye view and allows you to see all 22 players at once, thus why it's called All-22 film, as opposed to the tv broadcast where you can't see the defensive secondary.  It really reveals just how much you miss from the TV broadcast.

I'm almost positive it doesn't exist, but I would like game film that you could review that would show the entire defensive alignment at the moment of contact; I.e. you could actually see the jump he OFers are getting.  I think it would put this data into perspective.

I see.  I didn't know the NFL had something like that publicly available.   I agree that MLB doesn't seem to.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m no math expert but if the ball is in the air for 5 seconds and Cowser covers one extra foot per second, that’s 5 extra feet even if they get the same exact jump.  5 feet is a significant distance.  Add in a better jump and you could (I’m guessing) be talking about another 5-10 feet.

P.S.  According to sprint speed O’Hearn is a foot faster per second which is why I am not sure Santander makes that catch either.

I was just getting into this in another thread.   Basically, nobody's at full speed until 3 seconds have passed.   On average, the furthest average distance covered in that time is 37.8 feet, the slowest is 29.3 (this is for catch attempts on 2+ star plays).   So, a potential difference of about 8.5 feet between fastest and slowest before anyone is up to full speed.  Santander at 33.2 feet was exactly league average last year.  O'Hearn didn't have enough qualified plays to produce data.   Statcast Outfielder Jump Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Edited April 3 by Frobby

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Pickles said:

That's fascinating to me, and I'm not sure I buy it.

Now you have to watch the replay because the live stream is not focused on the fielder for the first second or so, but Santander made a direct beeline to that ball on Monday.  He's not fast, but he takes very good, direct routes and that was a great example of that.

Cowser's catch yesterday he does not take a direct route to the ball.  He goes back first (which is the right thing to do, other than making a direct beeline to where the ball is going to land) and and then he went east-west to the ball.  Not to take away anything from him, that was a fine catch, but I don't buy the 60% probability.  I have little doubt Hays would have caught it, and Hays is not the rangiest LFer.

Cowser's route has nothing to do with catch probability. 

 

[Pickles]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Cowser's route has nothing to do with catch probability. 

 

No, but has to do with the probability he is going to make the catch.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Cowser's route has nothing to do with catch probability. 

 

I don’t think that was his point.  What he’s saying is, he didn’t take a very direct route and still got there relatively easily, so how could it have been a 60% catch probability?   And the answer must be, (1) he’s faster than average and (2) he got a good jump, making that catch look easier than it is for most OFers.  

[Tony-OH]

So O'Hearn's attempted catch at the wall finally hit statcast and to my surprise, they actually rated that as a 2-star catch with a 25% catch probability. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4b563eb2-f04f-40cc-833f-27946212bdd0

So maybe O'Hearn awkwardness at the wall affected how we viewed the ease of the play but he actually almost got there. Still, his career -3 OAA and combined -18% success added, and his 2023 -3.6 feet per second average in limited RF time tells us he's not a good RFer. 

Nice game though yesterday with the bat even though his triple was a miscommuication by the outfielders.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So O'Hearn's attempted catch at the wall finally hit statcast and to my surprise, they actually rated that as a 2-star catch with a 25% catch probability. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4b563eb2-f04f-40cc-833f-27946212bdd0

So maybe O'Hearn awkwardness at the wall affected how we viewed the ease of the play but he actually almost got there. Still, his career -3 OAA and combined -18% success added, and his 2023 -3.6 feet per second average in limited RF time tells us he's not a good RFer. 

Nice game though yesterday with the bat even though his triple was a miscommuication by the outfielders.

Where are you seeing it?  When I look at his defensive chart, that play doesn’t seem to show up.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where are you seeing it?  When I look at his defensive chart, that play doesn’t seem to show up.  

Also, the chart below suggests it would have been a 5 star catch unless there was another fly ball I’m not aware of.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Also, the chart below suggests it would have been a 5 star catch unless there was another fly ball I’m not aware of.

Well, the important thing on that chart is that it shows that a 25% chance play gets 5 stars, not 2.   So if Tony is right that it had a 25% catch probability, it’s a 5-star play (that wasn’t made).   

But honestly, that shouldn’t be rated a 5-star play IMO.   I’ve mentioned that I don’t think they’ve really solved the problem of balls near the wall, though I know they’ve tried.